At the Demilitarized Zone between North and South Korea on Sunday, President Donald Trump put himself just where he likes to be: at center stage, showcasing his supposedly unmatched negotiating skills without net or supporting cast. The U.S. would have a better chance of reaching a lasting deal with Pyongyang if he now withdrew to the wings.
The kind of personal diplomacy Trump favors can have its place. North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un cut off negotiations (and perhaps some of his negotiators) after being embarrassed by the failure of his last summit with Trump in Hanoi. Though the North hasn't tested a nuclear weapon or long-range missile since then, its weapons programs have continued unchecked. If Trump's handshake on the border gives Kim the cover he needs to agree to restart talks, it will have served some purpose.
At the same time, the main issues that divide the two nations remain as intractable as ever. Kim wants sanctions on North Korea lifted as quickly as possible. The U.S. has resisted granting such relief until after the North has agreed to eliminate its nuclear and long-range missile stockpiles and production facilities, which Kim's regime sees as critical to its survival. Riven by such irreconcilable goals, any new talks face bleak odds.
If reports are correct, the Trump administration may be relenting slightly, aiming for a more phased approach that would begin with dismantling known production facilities and thus freezing the size of the North's arsenals. The success of any such strategy will depend crucially on painstakingly negotiated details: which sites will be included, how the process will be monitored and verified, what the U.S. will give up in return, what comes next.
The North, for instance, has previously raised the possibility of shutting down the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center, its main nuclear complex. But Yongbyon encompasses a large area and several facilities; earlier partial suspensions of activity there, monitored by international inspectors, haven't held. Any deal now would have to include not only all of Yongbyon but other suspected nuclear sites as well, subject to intrusive inspections on a scale the North has never accepted before.
FROM AN EDITORIAL ON BLOOMBERG OPINION
