The Star Tribune, MPR News and KARE 11 interviewed 800 Minnesota likely voters between Sept. 21 and Sept. 23. Findings from questions about race, the criminal justice system and the Black Lives Matter movement are below. Results from the August 2020 Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 Minnesota poll, in which Minneapolis voters were asked several of these questions, are also included. Totals may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Scroll down the page for details about how the poll was conducted, a map of the Minnesota regions used in this poll and the demographics of the 800 respondents.
Do you think the death of George Floyd was an isolated incident, or a sign of broader problems in the treatment of Black people by Minneapolis police?
Isolated incident |
Broader problems |
Not sure |
36% | 52% | 12% |
Isolated incident |
Broader problems |
Not sure |
|
---|---|---|---|
Hennepin/ Ramsey | 23% | 69% | 8% |
Rest of metro | 40 | 47 | 13 |
Southern Minn. | 43 | 48 | 9 |
Northern Minn. | 44 | 35 | 21 |
Men | 39 | 48 | 13 |
Women | 34 | 55 | 11 |
DFL/ Democrat | 17 | 75 | 8 |
Republican | 59 | 27 | 14 |
Independent/ other | 35 | 50 | 15 |
Under 50 | 33 | 56 | 11 |
50+ | 39 | 48 | 13 |
No college degree | 39 | 47 | 14 |
College graduate | 34 | 57 | 9 |
White | 38 | 50 | 12 |
Nonwhite | 25 | 64 | 11 |
Biden voters | 12 | 83 | 5 |
Trump voters | 71 | 17 | 12 |
Do you think the criminal justice system does or does not treat Black people and white people equally?
Yes, it does |
No, it does not |
Not sure |
31% | 56% | 13% |
Yes, it does |
No, it does not |
Not sure |
|
---|---|---|---|
Hennepin/ Ramsey | 21% | 70% | 9% |
Rest of metro | 36 | 54 | 10 |
Southern Minn. | 38 | 52 | 10 |
Northern Minn. | 35 | 43 | 22 |
Men | 37 | 52 | 11 |
Women | 26 | 60 | 14 |
DFL/ Democrat | 12 | 77 | 11 |
Republican | 56 | 34 | 10 |
Independent/ other | 28 | 55 | 17 |
Under 50 | 25 | 64 | 11 |
50+ | 37 | 49 | 14 |
No college degree | 35 | 52 | 13 |
College graduate | 27 | 61 | 12 |
White | 32 | 56 | 12 |
Nonwhite | 27 | 59 | 14 |
Biden voters | 6 | 84 | 10 |
Trump voters | 65 | 23 | 12 |
In your opinion, which one of the following is a bigger problem right now: Police violence against Black people nationwide, or civilian violence against people and property in U.S. cities?
Police violence |
Civilian violence |
Not sure |
35% | 52% | 13% |
Police violence |
Civilian violence |
Not sure |
|
---|---|---|---|
Hennepin/ Ramsey | 48% | 36% | 16% |
Rest of metro | 30 | 55 | 15 |
Southern Minn. | 36 | 60 | 4 |
Northern Minn. | 22 | 65 | 13 |
Men | 33 | 56 | 11 |
Women | 38 | 48 | 14 |
DFL/ Democrat | 59 | 24 | 17 |
Republican | 12 | 84 | 4 |
Independent/ other | 32 | 51 | 17 |
Under 50 | 41 | 44 | 15 |
50+ | 31 | 59 | 10 |
No college degree | 30 | 58 | 12 |
College graduate | 41 | 46 | 13 |
White | 34 | 53 | 13 |
Nonwhite | 44 | 41 | 15 |
Biden voters | 64 | 18 | 18 |
Trump voters | 5 | 94 | 1 |
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the Black Lives Matter movement?
Favorable | Unfavorable | Not sure |
42% | 46% | 12% |
Favorable | Unfavorable | Not sure | |
---|---|---|---|
Hennepin/ Ramsey | 58% | 28% | 14% |
Rest of metro | 37 | 52 | 11 |
Southern Minn. | 32 | 54 | 14 |
Northern Minn. | 33 | 58 | 9 |
Men | 35 | 51 | 14 |
Women | 49 | 41 | 10 |
DFL/ Democrat | 69 | 13 | 18 |
Republican | 13 | 80 | 7 |
Independent/ other | 42 | 49 | 9 |
Under 50 | 48 | 42 | 10 |
50+ | 38 | 50 | 12 |
No college degree | 38 | 51 | 11 |
College graduate | 46 | 40 | 14 |
White | 42 | 47 | 11 |
Nonwhite | 47 | 39 | 14 |
Biden voters | 76 | 5 | 19 |
Trump voters | 4 | 92 | 4 |
About the poll
The findings of this Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll are based on live interviews conducted Sept. 21 to Sept. 23 with 800 Minnesota voters who indicated they were "likely to vote" in the November general election. The poll was conducted for the Star Tribune, Minnesota Public Radio News and KARE 11 by Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy Inc.
The sample for this survey was drawn from a Mason-Dixon database that includes approximately 2.2 million registered Minnesota voters who are matched with a telephone number – either a land line, a cell phone or both. A random sample of 100,000 voters from unique households with unique phones was drawn from this database for use in calling on this poll.
Those interviewed were randomly selected by computer from this phone-matched Minnesota voter registration file with quotas assigned to generally reflect the state's voter turnout distribution by county. For example, Hennepin County and Ramsey County combined accounted for 32.3% of the statewide vote in the 2016 presidential election, and accordingly 32.5% of the survey interviews were completed there. The interviews were conducted via land line (28%) and cellphone (72%).
The margin of sampling error for this sample of 800 likely voters, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ± 3.5 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin of error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or age grouping.
The self-identified party affiliation of the respondents is 38% Democrats, 34% Republicans and 28% independents or other.
Sampling error does not take into account other sources of variation inherent in public opinion surveys, such as nonresponse, question wording or context effects. In addition, news events may have affected opinions during the period the poll was taken.
The demographic profile of this poll of likely voters is an accurate reflection of their respective voter populations. This determination is based on more than 100 statewide polls conducted by Mason-Dixon in Minnesota over the past 32 years – a period that spans eight presidential election cycles that began in 1988.
Readers can e-mail questions to matt.delong@startribune.com.
Demographic breakdown of this polling sample
PARTY | ||
---|---|---|
DFL/ Democrat | 307 | (38%) |
Republican | 271 | (34%) |
Independent/ other | 222 | (28%) |
AGE | ||
18-34 | 146 | (18%) |
35-49 | 229 | (29%) |
50-64 | 234 | (29%) |
65+ | 184 | (23%) |
Refused | 7 | (1%) |
RACE | ||
White/ Caucasian | 700 | (87%) |
Black/ African American | 41 | (5%) |
Hispanic/ Latino | 23 | (3%) |
Asian/ Pacific Islander | 9 | (1%) |
Other | 20 | (3%) |
Refused | 7 | (1%) |
GENDER ID | ||
---|---|---|
Men | 384 | (48%) |
Women | 414 | (52%) |
Other | 2 | (<1%) |
REGION | ||
Hennepin/ Ramsey | 260 | (33%) |
Rest of metro | 215 | (27%) |
Southern Minnesota | 155 | (19%) |
Northern Minnesota | 170 | (21%) |
EDUCATION | ||
High school or less |
168 | (21%) |
Some college/ Vocational |
241 | (30%) |
College graduate | 252 | (31%) |
Graduate degree | 127 | (16%) |
Refused | 12 | (2%) |
INTERVIEW | ||
Land-line | 227 | (28%) |
Cell Phone | 573 | (72%) |
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