Winter finch forecast

WINTER FINCH FORECAST

Each fall Ron Pittaway of Ontario gathers information on the tree-seed crops that will or won't keep some of our hoped-for winter bird visitors north of us. From a variety of sources he collects data on three species of trees key to winter bird food — spruces, birches, and mountain ash trees.

Here is his forecast, with my disclaimer that things might not go exactly this way. Our thanks to him for this annual peak into the future at this winter's feeders.

One good piece of news is that cone crops are called poor west of Ontario, which might help birds in that region to move south.

Do not expect to see Pine Grosbeaks. Mountain ash crops are good in key Canadian areas. That is likely to keep these birds north.

We should see Purple Finches. They feed on seeds of coniferous and deciduous trees. Those seed crops are low. (Purple Finches favor black oil sunflower seeds at feeders.)

Red Crossbills are unlikely. Red and white pine cone crops in Ontario are good.

Common Redpolls should return after an almost complete absence last winter. Birch seed crops are poor to average in Canada's boreal forest. (Redpolls prefer niger thistle seed at feeders.)

Hoary Redpolls: watch for them in northern redpoll flocks.

Pittaway's report says Blue Jays have been migrating south out of Canada.

Red-breasted Nuthatchs will be moving south because spruce cone crops, important to that bird, are low to average in number.