If President Donald Trump loses his bid for re-election, as looked increasingly likely Wednesday, it would be the first defeat of an incumbent president in 28 years. But one thing seemed certain: Win or lose, he will not go quietly away. Trailing former Vice President Joe Biden, Trump spent the day trying to discredit the election based on invented fraud claims, hoping either to hang onto power or explain away a loss. He could find a narrow path to re-election among states still counting, but he has made clear that he would not shrink from the scene should he lose. At the very least, he has 76 days left in office to use his power as he sees fit and to seek revenge on some of his perceived adversaries.
Angry at a defeat, he may fire or sideline a variety of senior officials who failed to carry out his wishes as he saw it, including Christopher Wray, the FBI director, and Dr. Anthony Fauci, the government's top infectious diseases specialist in the middle of a pandemic.
And if he is forced to vacate the White House on Jan. 20, Trump is likely to prove more resilient than expected and almost surely will remain a powerful and disruptive force in American life. He received at least 4 million more votes than he did in 2016 and commanded about 48% of the popular vote, meaning he retained the support of nearly half of the public despite four years of scandal, setbacks, impeachment and the brutal coronavirus outbreak.
That gives him a power base to play a role that other defeated one-term presidents like Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush have not played. Trump has long toyed with starting his own television network to compete with Fox News, and in private lately he has broached the idea of running again in 2024. Even if his own days as a candidate are over, his 88-million-strong Twitter following gives him a bullhorn to be an influential voice on the right, potentially making him a kingmaker among rising Republicans.
"If anything is clear from the election results, it is that the president has a huge following, and he doesn't intend to exit the stage anytime soon," said former Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona, one of the few Republican officeholders to break with Trump over the past four years.
That following may yet enable Trump to eke out a second term and four years to try to rebuild the economy and reshape the Republican Party in his image. But even from out of office, he could try to pressure Republican senators who preserved their majority to resist Biden at every turn, forcing them to choose between conciliation or crossing his political base.
Exit polls showed that regardless of prominent Republican defectors like Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah and the Never Trumpers of the Lincoln Project, Trump enjoyed strong support within his own party, winning 93% of Republican voters. He also did somewhat better with Black voters (12%) and Hispanic voters (32%) than he did four years ago despite his often racist rhetoric. And after his high-energy blitz across battleground states, late-deciding voters broke his way.
Some of Trump's arguments carried considerable weight with members of his party. Despite the coronavirus pandemic and the related economic toll, 41% of voters said they were doing better than when he took office, compared with only 20% who described themselves as worse off. Adopting his priorities, 35% of voters named the economy as the most important issue, twice as many who cited the pandemic. Fully 49% said the economy was good or excellent, and 48% approved of his government's handling of the virus.
