Wild's mission tonight: Survive second period and the 'long change'

If you are a busy person with a full, rich life but are also someone with at least a passing interest in the Wild's playoff journey, I will try to save you some time.

Instead of turning on the TV a little after 8 p.m. Wednesday when the puck is dropped for Game 6 of Wild vs. Vegas at Xcel Energy Center, go ahead and carry on with tasks until around 9 p.m. when the second period should be about ready to start.

That is the period that — if recent history holds — will tell the story of whether the Wild forces a Game 7 or ends its season of overachieving with playoff disappointment.

I talked about this a little at the end of Wednesday's Daily Delivery podcast, but let's go into it in a bit more detail here.

Simply put, the Wild has played Vegas relatively even in periods 1, 3 and overtime, outscoring the Golden Knights 7-6 in those periods. But in the second period? Vegas is outscoring the Wild 8-1.

In the last four contests of this series, that has proved to be the game-changing period: Minnesota took a quick 1-0 lead in the second period of Game 2, its only goal in the period all series, but Vegas scored twice before the period was done in a 3-1 win. The Wild took a 2-0 lead into the second period in Game 3, but three Vegas goals in that period led to a 5-2 win. Vegas boosted its lead from 1-0 to 3-0 with two second-period goals in a 4-0 win in Game 4. And the Wild after taking a 3-1 first period lead in Game 5 survived a lopsided second period and only allowed one goal, keeping a slim 3-2 lead it converted into a 4-2 win.

This is not a coincidence. The second period was the Wild's weakest, by far, in the regular season — with Minnesota allowing 61 goals in the second period and scoring just 46. The Wild outscored opponents 60-40 in the first period and 67-54 in the third. The Wild was No. 2 in the NHL in both first period and third period scoring this year.

What gives?

A touch of it is probably randomness. But a lot of it likely has to do with the Wild's style and the "long change" of the second period.

If you are unfamiliar with that term: In the first and third periods, a team's bench is situated near its defensive zone. So a team can chip a puck out and replenish tired players on the fly with relative ease. But the second period is the one period where benches are far away from each team's defensive zone. It's harder to change personnel on a clear to the neutral zone; a puck really needs to get deep in another team's zone to safely change players without getting caught by a counter-attack.

Every year in the NHL, when taking out empty net goals in the third period, more goals are scored in the second than in either the first or third in part because of the long change. This past season in the NHL was no different: Teams on average scored 47 goals in the first, 55 in the second and 52 (subtracting empty net goals) in the third.

So the Wild scored nine fewer than the average team and gave up six more than the average team in the second period during the regular season. The problem has been exacerbated against Vegas, a team with more skill than the Wild that can dominate possession and force tired Wild players to stay on the ice.

Intrigue about whether Matt Boldy will play on Wednesday will dominate pregame discussion, and rightfully so.

But pay attention to the second period Wednesday. If the Wild can find subtle tweaks to make the play more level — getting pucks deep, stopping Vegas from entering the offensive zone cleanly and keeping players fresh — and come out of the second 20 minutes relatively unscathed, it will have a decent chance to extend this series.

If not? The long change will probably lead to a quick exit.