Widespread Rain Friday - Quiet Weekend Expected

Forecast loop from 7 PM Thursday through 7 PM Friday.

As we watch a system move in Thursday Night into Friday across the state, rain chances will increase. While scattered showers are possible Thursday evening into the overnight, the heaviest rain chances look to move in late Thursday night in western Minnesota, spreading toward the metro in time for the Friday morning commute and pushing out by the midday hours. However, rain chances will continue to linger across the region through the afternoon and early evening hours Friday.

Rain potential through 7 AM Saturday.

At least a quarter to half an inch of rain is expected to fall across portions of central and southern Minnesota with the Thursday night and Friday rainfall. The potential does exist for 1-2" of rain where rain is the heaviest and most consistent through Friday evening.

Due to the potential of some pockets of consistent rain, some of which could be heavy, as well as moisture still in the ground from last weekend's rains, we may have to watch for some isolated flooding across the region. The Weather Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk (threat level 1 of 4) of excessive rain that leads to flash flooding in place across parts of central and southern Minnesota Thursday Night (first image) and Friday (second image).

As shown above, the best chances of rain across the state on Friday will be from Roseau to Duluth southwestward to the Minnesota River Valley and into southeastern Minnesota... but we can't rule out some isolated rain chances in both northeast and southwest Minnesota. If you miss out on the rain, mainly cloudy skies are expected. Temperatures will range from the 60s in parts of northeastern Minnesota to near 90F in southwestern portions of the state.

While the best chance of showers and maybe a few thunderstorms will be in the morning to midday hours on Friday in the Twin Cities, we will continue to see the potential of lingering rain through the afternoon. Temperatures will generally remain in the 60s during the timeframe of the best chance of rain in the metro, slowly climbing into the low 70s for highs by the late afternoon hours.

Unlike last weekend, this upcoming weekend will be a quiet one in the Twin Cities with mostly sunny skies on both Saturday and Sunday. Highs this weekend will be in the mid-80s. It will feel a touch more humid out there as dewpoints will be in the low 60s. If you have an extended weekend that lasts into Monday, the first day of next week will also be sunny with slightly cooler highs.

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Even with last weekend's 1-3" rain across parts of the state, we didn't see much improvement in the drought situation for most locations. The reason: we need more rain to help end it. According to NOAA, the Twin Cities region would need over 6" of rain within a month to bring an end to the drought, with a general 5-7" across central/southern Minnesota. So while there was some improvement, especially down by Mankato (see below), 11.3% of the state is still under severe drought conditions (level 3 of 5), with 28.1% abnormally dry (level 1 of 5)

The map above shows where we did see some improvement (or worsening) of the drought over the past week. You can see at least one to two categories of improvement across parts of central and southern Minnesota. However, there was some worsening of the drought in areas, mainly situated in parts of western Minnesota and along the North Shore.

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"Will we have nice weather, Paul?" Define "nice". We've had a very nice spell of weather in recent days, close to a classic definition of "perfect weather". But last weekend's healthy dousing did little to ease our drought.

Moderate to severe drought still impacts a swath of Minnesota from Windom and Redwood Falls into the Twin Cities metro. NOAA estimates it would take 6" of rain over a month to erase drought. Not 6" all at once. A flood would pour most of that rainwater into streets and storm sewers as runoff. A few (gentle) 1"+ rains would go a long way. That seems unlikely anytime soon.

Showers taper this morning with under .25" for many spots - just enough to settle the dust. Skies brighten later today and another lake-worthy weekend is likely with low 80s and sun.

Weather will temporarily stall next week with a better chance of showers and T-storms by Wednesday and Thursday. No 90s, no severe risk. But only a handful of (minor) rain events for your dry, crunchy lawn. I'll keep kicking the Doppler.

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FRIDAY: Rain tapers, some PM sun. Wake up 64. High 74. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind SE 10-20 mph.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny and warm. Wake up 66. High 82. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind N 8-13 mph.

SUNDAY: Blue sky. Go jump in a lake. Wake up 61. High 83. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NE 5-10 mph.

MONDAY: Intervals of sun, still pleasant. Wake up 64. High 83. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.

TUESDAY: Some sun, chance of a T-storm. Wake up 66. High 82. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.

THURSDAY: PM showers, thunder. Wake up 65. High 77. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
August 12th

*Length Of Day: 14 hours, 12 minutes, and 27 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 42 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 14 Hours Of Daylight?: August 17 (13 hours, 58 minutes, 36 seconds)
*When Does The Sun Start Rising At/After 7 AM?: September 22nd (7:00 AM)
*When Does The Sun Start Setting At/Before 8 PM?: August 26th (8:00 PM)

This Day in Weather History
August 12th

2000: Record-setting dew points develop in Minnesota. The Twin Cities have a dew point of 76, with a rare dew point of 80 at Faribault.

1821: An eight-day heat wave ends at Ft. Snelling. Temperatures were in the 90's each day.

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On Friday, a frontal boundary will still help to bring shower and storm chances from portions of the East Coast down to the Southern Plains. Storms will be possible across the Intermountain West, partly due to monsoonal moisture (especially in the Southwest). A system will help bring some showers and storms to the upper Midwest. The severe storm threat across the nation is low. A few record highs could be possible in the Great Plains.

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Even a small rise in temperatures could decimate North American forests

More from Grist: "From 2007 to 2017, land-based ecosystems like the vast boreal forests of Canada and the Amazon rainforest removed roughly a third of anthropogenic carbon emissions from the atmosphere. According to a slate of new scientific research published this week in Nature, however, the threats that climate change poses to these terrestrial carbon sinks are greater than previously understood. A new study from a research team at the University of Michigan found that even a relatively small temperature increase of 1.6 degrees Celsius associated with climate change can have drastic effects on the dominant tree species in North American boreal forests, including reduced growth and increased mortality. "Our results spell problems for the health and diversity of future regional forests," University of Michigan forest ecologist Peter Reich, who led the study, told the University of Michigan news office."

Rhine River could fall below critical mark, risking industry

More from the Star Tribune: "Water levels on the Rhine River could reach a critically low point in the coming days, German officials said Wednesday, making it increasingly difficult to transport goods — including coal and gasoline — as drought and an energy crisis grip Europe. Weeks of dry weather have turned several of Europe's major waterways into trickles, posing a headache for German factories and power plants that rely on deliveries by ship and making an economic slowdown ever more likely. Transporting goods by inland waterways is more important in Germany than in many other Western European countries, according to Capital Economics."

More from Energy News Network: "Smaller, regional banks and credit unions are increasingly looking to help homeowners finance solar installations in a sign of growing recognition of the opportunities in clean energy finance. In the Midwest, Iowa-based Decorah Bank & Trust is among the latest to begin marketing loans for solar and other clean energy projects. The community bank recently relaunched a digital subsidiary called Greenpenny to serve residential and commercial customers in Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, Minnesota and Wisconsin. It joins longtime Twin Cities clean energy lender the Center for Energy and Environment and a handful of credit unions and other community banks offering products in a space traditionally dominated by larger, national firms."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser