The delicate task of reallocating how much affordable housing each Twin Cities city and suburb should provide won't be easy.
Over the next decade, an estimated 52,000 new low- and moderate-income homes and apartments will be needed in the metro area, and determining each city's share has become a lightning-rod issue, sparking accusations of institutional racism and spawning a federal fair-housing complaint alleging that state policies have illegally intensified concentrations of poverty.
The Metropolitan Council, along with city leaders, housing advocates and other stakeholders, will wade into the work of updating its allocation formula this week.
"That could be very good. It depends on how they go about doing it. … The devil is in the details," said Aaron Parker, president of the nonprofit Metropolitan Interfaith Council on Affordable Housing, one of the parties in a federal fair-housing complaint against the state of Minnesota.
State law requires cities to plan for their fair share of regional affordable housing. The Met Council, the regional planning body whose members are appointed by the governor, is facing the once-in-a-decade process armed with new U.S. census data. This time, the agency says, it will change its allotment formula and open the process more to the public.
The allocation numbers are not mandates, but they help set regional planning priorities and resource distribution.
"We are hoping that [the process] will create a foundation for transparency," said Libby Starling, the Met Council's manager of regional policy and research. "We are also likely to change how it's done for no other reason than there is better data available to do it."
An affordable-housing allocation was last computed in 2006, for 2010 to 2020. The complex formula looked at household growth forecasts, then was adjusted for three factors — the ratio of low-wage jobs vs. low-wage workers, a community's existing affordable-housing stock, and access to transit. The new formula is likely to still weigh the first two in some way, Starling said.