Weekend: A Little Snow, Plenty Of Cold

We temporarily dry out today before the next surge of rain arrives tonight and Thursday. A chilling wind whips up Friday and the weekend will be cold enough for snow - maybe a slushy coating. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

October 25, 2023 at 4:28AM
Hail in Eden Prairie on Tuesday (@SMartinWX/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Storms From Tuesday

Strong to severe thunderstorms rumbled across parts of southern Minnesota on Tuesday with several large hail reports. The largest reports came out of Springfield and Sleepy Eye, where some tennis ball size hail was reported!

Storm Reports From Tuesday (NOAA NWS/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Drought Denting Rains

Tuesday also saw heavy rainfall across parts of southern Minnesota, where some 1" plus tallies came in. This won't end the drought across the area, but it will certainly help continue to dent the drought.

Rainfall From Tuesday (NOAA NWS/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

More Rain on the Way

The extended precipitation outlook through the weekend shows another batch of additional heavy rainfall that could approach 1" to 3" or more in spots.

Rainfall Potential Through PM Friday (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook

Here's the simulated radar from AM Wednesday to PM Thursday, which shows another batch of heavier rains developing across the southeastern part of the state. Meanwhile, areas of snow will be possible farther North with some slushy accumulations possible as well.

Simulated Radar From AM Wednesday to PM Thursday (COD Weather/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snowfall Potential?

As this late week storm system takes shape, we'll see some slushy accumulations develop across the northern part of the state. There could be a wet coating to a couple of inches in some areas across the far northwestern part of the state.

Snowfall Potential Through Saturday (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

90 Day Precipitation Anomaly

Thanks to some recent heavy rains parts of the state are now in a surplus over the last 90 days. Some of the biggest surpluses are showing up in blue in pockets across parts of central Minnesota, including the Twin Cities and into western Wisconsin. It has been a very soggy last 4 weeks.

90 Day Precipitation Anomaly (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Drought Update

Recent heavy rains have helped the drought situation quite a bit in spots across the state. With that being said, we're still in a drought across much of the state with nearly 5% under an extreme drought, which improved since last week. We should see additional improvement after this weeks rain, but we won't see that show up in the drought maps until next week. Stay tuned...

Minnesota Drought Update (US Drought Monitor/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Fall Color Update

Here's a picture from Mai Xiong Thao & the MN DNR Website at Afton State Park. Fall colors look well underway there and are peaking or past peak across much of the northern half of Minnesota.

Afton State Park (Mai Xiong Thao & MN DNR Website/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Fall Color Update

According to the MN DNR, much of Minnesota is at or past peak. Fall colors will continue to rapidly change, so take a moment and enjoy the season while you can. Note that most leaves will vacate the premises in a few weeks and won't return until sometime in mid/late May...

Minnesota Fall Color Update (MN DNR/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Wisconsin Fall Color Update

Here's a look at the fall color report in Wisconsin. Fall colors are peaking in some areas and peak isn't far away in others.

Wisconsin Fall Color Update (Travel Color Update/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Typical Peak Fall Color

According to the MN DNR, typical peak color arrives across the international border mid to late September with peak color arriving near the Twin Cities late September to mid October. It won't be long now and you'll be able to find your favorite fall color in a backyard near you.

Typical Peak Colo (MN DNR/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Hurricane Otis

Hurricane Otis became a Major hurricane on Tuesday just south of Mexico and could become one of the strongest hurricanes to ever impact Acapulco, Mexico. We'll likely be hearing new headlines on Wednesday from this storm...

Hurricane Otis (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Hurricane Otis is expected to make landfall near Acapulco, Mexico, as Category 5 storm"

"Hurricane Otis, a Category 5 storm, is expected to make landfall Wednesday morning near Acapulco in Mexico, threatening to lash the coastal region with destructive winds and potentially "catastrophic storm surge," forecasters say. As of Tuesday night, Otis was packing winds of 160 mph with higher gusts while its core was about 55 miles south-southeast of Acapulco, moving north-northwest at 9 mph. Landfall is expected by early Wednesday near or just west of the city, a beach resort town on Mexico's Pacific coast, the hurricane center said. A hurricane warning is in effect for coastal Punta Maldonado westward to Zihuatanejo. A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are also active from Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado."

Tracking Otis (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Hurricane Tammy

Here's a look at Hurricane Tammy from PM Tuesday. This storm looked a little more organized than it did earlier in the week and will continue to drift north toward Bermuda later this week.

Hurricane Tammy From PM Tuesday (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Tracking Tammy

According to NOAA's NHC, Tammy will continue to remain at hurricane status through midweek. It may weaken to a tropical storm later this week and take a hard left toward Bermuda by Friday & Saturday. Stay tuned...

Tracking Tammy (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

7 Day Atlantic Outlook

The 7 day outlook for the Atlantic Basin shows Hurricane Tammy north of the Caribbean and tracking toward Bermuda by the weekend.

7 Day Atlantic Outlook (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Past Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th, but did you know that the typical peak is September 10th? This is when the Atlantic Basin has had the most hurricanes and named storms since records began. This is also when weather conditions are at optimal levels for these types of storms.

Atlantic Hurricane & Tropical Storm Climatology (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook For Wednesday

The temperature outlook on Wednesday shows quite a range from northwest to southeast across the state. Folks in far northwestern Minnesota will only warm into the mid/upper 40s, while areas in southeastern Minnesota will warm into the low/mid 60s. Areas in southeastern Minnesota will be nearly +10F warmer than average along with scattered showers and storms, some of which could produce heavy rainfall.

Weather Outlook For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Wednesday, October 25th will be quiet during much of the day with lingering clouds and milder temps. We will see storm develop overnight with more locally heavy rainfall, especially south of the metro.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms For Minneapolis

Temperatures in Minneapolis will start in the lower 50s in the morning and will warm to near 60s in the afternoon, which will be nearly +5F to +10F above average for this time of the year. Much of the day will be dry with north to northeasterly winds around 10mph.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows temps running well above average through midweek. The warmest days will be Wednesday and Thursday with readings warming into the low 60s, which will be nearly +5F to +10F above average for this time of the year. It gets significantly colder as we approach the weekend with highs only warming into the 30s, which will be nearly -10F to -15F below average.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows unsettled weather in place now over the next several days. Highs will be quite mild through Thursday with showers and storms. Temps fall quite a bit as we slide into the weekend with highs only warming into the 30s and overnight lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s. There could even be some wet snow across parts of the metro later this week/weekend.

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Big Temp Drop Ahead

According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, temps will warm into the 60s through the midweek, which will be above average for this time of the year. Weather conditions turn more unsettled during the 2nd half of the week with falling temps. Temps will get quite a bit colder as we head into the end of October and early November with readings well below average. It is likely that we may even see our first freeze in the Twin Cities Metro along with a chance of snow.

NBM Extended Temperature For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook

Weather conditions in the Central US will continue to be more unsettled as we head through the 2nd half of the week. Areas of storms and heavy rain will be possible, but we could also see some of first flakes of the season along with some wet snow accumulations for some.

National Weather Outlook Through This Weekend (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temperatures across parts of the eastern half of the nation. Meanwhile, warmer than average temperatures will develop across the western half of the nation.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook shows more unsettled weather in the Pacific Northwest and also in the Southeastern US.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weekend: A Little Snow, Plenty Of Cold
By Paul Douglas

Halloween is fast approaching and I can't decide on a costume: TV weather guy (pointing to an empty bag of candy) or Backwoods Trapper Ken? My wife will haunt the neighborhood as either Arctic Explorer Barbie or Elsa from "Frozen".

You'll need a few extra layers of clothing under those costumes next Tuesday with wind chills dipping into the 20s and a few flakes in the air.

Much colder air is about to pour out of Canada; weekend temperatures nearly 30F colder than they are now. Sometimes these jabs of frozen air spin up major snowstorms, but this probably won't be one of those times. A coating of slush is possible by Sunday morning, but any snow that falls should melt quickly, with daytime highs above 32F. Good times.

We temporarily dry out today before the next surge of rain arrives tonight and Thursday. A chilling wind whips up Friday and the weekend will be cold enough for snow - maybe a slushy coating.

Expect 30s for highs next week; more like late November. Aren't Minnesota autumns fun?

Extended Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Showers, storms tonight. Winds: NE 8-13. High 59.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Rain and some thunder. Winds: ESE 5-10. Low: 56.

THURSDAY: Showers and T-storms, some heavy. Winds: NE 10-15. Wake-up: 56. High 64.

FRIDAY: Wind-whipped showers. Winds: NW 15-35. Wake-up: 40. High 44.

SATURDAY: Light rain-snow mix. Wet roads. Winds: N 10-15. Wake-up: 32. High 37.

SUNDAY: Early slush? Slow PM clearing. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 31. High: 38.

MONDAY: Windy, feels like late November. Winds: W 15-25. Wake-up: 27. High: 37.

TUESDAY: Numbing Halloween. Windy, few flakes? Winds: NW 15-30. Wake-up: 26. High: 34.

This Day in Weather History

October 25th

1887: Albert Lea sets a record low of -6 degrees F.

1830: A 'heat wave' hits Ft. Snelling. The high temperature reached 80.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

October 25th

Average High: 53F (Record: 82F set in 1989)

Average Low: 37F (Record: 12F set in 1887)

Record Rainfall: 0.75" set in 2012

Record Snowfall: 0.4" set in 2001 & 2020

Twin Cities Almanac For October 25th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

October 24th

Sunrise: 7:41am

Sunset: 6:12pm

Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours & 30 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: 2 Minutes & 55 Seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 5 Hour & 17 Minutes

Moon Phase for October 25th at Midnight

2.6 Days Until Full "Hunters" Moon - Oct. 28 at 3:24 p.m. CDT "With the leaves falling and the deer fattened, it is time to hunt. Since the fields have been reaped, hunters can ride over the stubble, and can more easily see the fox, also other animals that have come out to glean and can be caught for a Thanksgiving banquet after the harvest. A partial lunar eclipse also occurs on this date. Unlike the May event, this one sees the moon brush the Earth's darker umbral shadow; at maximum (20:14 GMT) about 12% of the moon's diameter will be within the shadow, darkening its lower limb. The Earth's Eastern Hemisphere faces the moon when the eclipse takes place, however, Atlantic Canada will see the last of the umbra slip off the moon when it rises and sharp-eyed New Englanders will be able to perceive the faint shading of the penumbra as the moon appears above their horizon."

Moon Phase For October 25th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps on Wednesday

Temps on Wednesday will still be quite warm across the eastern half of the nation with temps running nearly +5F to +15F above average for this time of the year. However, temps across the High Plains will be significantly colder as this big snow event unfolds.

National Weather Outlook For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook For Wednesday

The National Weather Outlook on Wednesday shows unsettled weather across the Central US. Areas of rain and thunder will be possible along with locally heavy rain. Meanwhile, Winter Weather Headlines have been posted across the High Plains and the Northern Rockies, where up to a foot of snow will be possible in spots.

National Weather Map For Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

The National Weather outlook through Thursday shows rounds of thunderstorms developing across the Central US. Areas of heavy snow will develop in the northern Rockies and High Plains, where winter weather headlines have been posted.

National Weather Outlook Through Thursday (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

The extended precipitation outlook shows widespread rainfall across the Central US. There could be several inches of rain from Texas to the Great Lakes, mixed with a little snow farther north. Areas of heavy snow will continue from Montana to North Dakota.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Snowfall Outlook

According to the ECMWF weather model, it looks like parts of the Northwest and High Plains will be dealing with some fairly decent snow tallies through the week. Parts of Minnesota could even see some snow! This will be the Nation's first real snow event of the season.

ECMWF Extended Snowfall Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"The quest to understand tornadoes"

"One muggy day in July 1986, a news helicopter was recording footage of a festival in Minneapolis when the pilot and photographer glimpsed a tornado over nearby Brooklyn Park. They moved toward it, filming the powerful twister for 25 minutes, mesmerizing viewers watching it live on TV. Watching as the helicopter hovered within maybe a half-mile of the twister was Robin Tanamachi, who was a kid growing up in Minneapolis at the time. "We were seeing all this really beautiful interior vortex structure," she says. "I was just absolutely hooked on that, and I know I was not the only one." Today, Tanamachi is a research meteorologist at Purdue University in West Lafayette, Indiana, and one of many researchers delving into twisters' mysteries, searching for details about their formation that may bolster future forecasts."

"Hydro Dams Are Struggling to Handle the World's Intensifying Weather"

"IT'S BEEN ONE of the wettest years in California since records began. From October 2022 to March 2023, the state was blasted by 31 atmospheric rivers—colossal bands of water vapor that form above the Pacific and become firehoses when they reach the West Coast. What surprised climate scientists wasn't the number of storms, but their strength and rat-a-tat frequency. The downpours shocked a water system that had just experienced the driest three years in recorded state history, causing floods, mass evacuations, and at least 22 deaths. Swinging between wet and dry extremes is typical for California, but last winter's rain, potentially intensified by climate change, was almost unmanageable. Add to that the arrival of El Niño, and more extreme weather looks likely for the state. This is going to make life very difficult for the dam operators tasked with capturing and controlling much of the state's water."

"Turbulence, the Oldest Unsolved Problem in Physics"

"Werner Heisenberg won the 1932 Nobel Prize for helping to found the field of quantum mechanics and developing foundational ideas like the Copenhagen interpretation and the uncertainty principle. The story goes that he once said that, if he were allowed to ask God two questions, they would be, "Why quantum mechanics? And why turbulence?" Supposedly, he was pretty sure God would be able to answer the first question. The quote may be apocryphal, and there are different versions floating around. Nevertheless, it is true that Heisenberg banged his head against the turbulence problem for several years. His thesis advisor, Arnold Sommerfeld, assigned the turbulence problem to Heisenberg simply because he thought none of his other students were up to the challenge—and this list of students included future luminaries like Wolfgang Pauli and Hans Bethe. But Heisenberg's formidable math skills, which allowed him to make bold strides in quantum mechanics, only afforded him a partial and limited success with turbulence."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
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Todd Nelson

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