NFL Week 16 picks: Colts quarterback Philip Rivers should be eager for this week’s game

Indianapolis and its 44-year-old signal caller return home to face a 49ers team with a toothless pass rush.

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The Minnesota Star Tribune
December 18, 2025 at 9:00PM
Indianapolis quarterback Philip Rivers (17) greets running back Jonathan Taylor and linebacker Austin Ajiake (58) during Sunday's 18-16 loss at Seattle. (Lindsey Wasson/The Associated Press)

What’s not to like about Week 16 if you’re a 44-year-old NFL quarterback in your second week back after five years off?

Yes, Philip Rivers and his Colts (8-6) do face the 49ers (10-4). But Indianapolis is back home on “Monday Night Football” and facing a defense whose 16 sacks are six fewer than any other team and 5½ fewer than Cleveland’s Myles Garrett has all by himself.

Perhaps the 49ers will follow this whole made-for-Hollywood script better than Seattle did Sunday when it stole Rivers’ lead with 29 seconds left in an 18-16 win.

If anyone can resurrect these slumbering Colts in the wake of Daniel Jones’ season-ending Achilles injury, it’s Rivers. Dad bod and all.

He’s not afraid of the big hit. He’s still crafty enough to limit his sacks (one last week). And he can still get rid of the ball, completing 16 of his 18 passes thrown within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage against Seattle.

Yes, Rivers was only 2-for-8 on the wobblers he threw 10-plus yards. But maybe the 49ers’ toothless pass rush will give him extra time to put a little more oomph into the deeper deliveries.

“I admire the hell out of him,” 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said. “What I admire the most is to be someone at that age and come in there and want to play the right way, which to me is hanging in that pocket and taking some of those hits. That’s something that gets very old fast to a lot of people.”

The Colts, who started 7-1, sit one game back of the last AFC playoff spot and are third in the AFC South behind Jacksonville (10-4) and Houston (9-5). Jacksonville is at Denver (12-2) this week, while Houston hosts the Raiders (2-12).

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Just win, Sam

Seattle entered this week with the three lowest third-down conversion percentages by the team that won. Sam Darnold and the Seahawks were 1-for-12 (8.3%) in a 20-12 victory over Jacksonville on Oct. 12, 2-for-14 (14.2%) in a 27-19 win over Houston on Oct. 20, and 2-for-13 (15.4%) in last week’s triumph over the Colts.

Record-setting Myles

The Vikings are tied for fifth worst in sacks allowed (47) but are one of three teams that shut out Garrett, whose 21½ sacks are one behind the record held by Michael Strahan (2001) and T.J. Watt (2021).

Stat of the week

6: Consecutive years a team had a top-five draft pick and made the playoffs. The Jaguars and/or Patriots can extend that mark this week. New England needs a win or tie at Baltimore. Jacksonville needs a win at Denver and a Colts or Texans loss.

Did you know?

Mike Tomlin, 53, can become the 11th coach with 200 career wins, including the postseason, with a Steelers victory at Detroit. He would become the third-youngest coach to accomplish the feat behind Curly Lambeau, 48, and Don Shula, 51.

Trust the Bills?

The Bills have the second-best average yards per carry (5.02) and the second-worst average yards per carry allowed (5.42). If the season ended today, Buffalo would open the playoffs at Jacksonville and its top-ranked run defense (86.3 yards allowed per game).

Vikings thought of the week

It’s a good week to run the ball. The Giants are allowing 5.6 yards per carry, last in the league. No NFL team has been worse than 5.5 since the 1959 Washington Redskins.

NFC North thought of the week

Dan Campbell’s fourth-down magic is fading. The Lions were plus-33 in fourth-down conversions (84-51) through Campbell’s first four seasons. They’re 15-for-27 (55.6%) this year, while their opponents are 18-for-28 (64.3%).

Week 16 picks

Rams (-1) at Seahawks: Big game + the Rams = Why the Vikings didn’t pay Darnold. Rams 28-21

Eagles (-6½) at Commanders: Another bad team to help Philly feel good about itself. Eagles 34-16

Packers (-1½) at Bears: Without Micah Parsons, this year’s Packers suddenly look a lot like last year’s Packers. Bears 24-21

Vikings (-3) at Giants: Sorry, Vikings Nation, but the QB you hated a month ago will not be eligible for the Hall of Fame if he wins again. Vikings 35-20

Bills (-10) at Browns: Garrett is about to set the record for the most wasted season in NFL history. Bills 35-10

Chargers (-1½) at Cowboys: Cheer up, Dallas. Dak Prescott has been all but eliminated from losing another playoff game. Chargers 33-29

Chiefs (-3½) at Titans: The Chiefs have fallen, but they will get up. This week and especially when Patrick Mahomes returns. So hold the shovels. Chiefs 23-13

Bengals (-1) at Dolphins: New QB Quinn Ewers won’t win, but at least he’ll look bad while making $52 million a year less than Tua Tagovailoa. Bengals 24-20

Jets (+4) at Saints: Give quarterback Tyler Shough and the Saints defense credit. They sure know how to screw up a high draft pick. Saints 20-14

Buccaneers (-3) at Panthers: In case of a tie, just let the 4-10 Saints have the NFC South by virtue of their division-leading three division wins. Panthers 33-29

Jaguars (+3) at Broncos: Unlike last week, Denver is favored at home while leading the NFL in consecutive wins (11) and destroying quarterbacks? Broncos 24-20

Falcons (-2½) at Cardinals: Kirk Cousins’ winning percentage when needing to win to keep being overpaid by someone is 1.000. Falcons 28-17

Steelers (+7) at Lions: Detroit’s last 10 games: win, loss, win, loss, win, loss, win, loss, win and loss. My analytics guy now saying Lions win. Lions 24-21

Raiders (+14½) at Texans: Easiest late-December pick in survivor pool history: Whoever is currently playing the Raiders this December. Texans 28-0

49ers (-5½) at Colts: A nation of old guys tunes in Monday night just to see whether Rivers will still be awake in the fourth quarter. Colts 25-23

Upset special

Patriots (+3) at Ravens: Are the Ravens: A) Good? B) Bad? C) To be feared? D) Not to be feared? Answer: F) All of the above. Patriots 23-20

Last week’s pick: Broncos (+2½) 24, Packers 21. Final: Broncos 34, Packers 26. Record: 5-9.

Season results

Last week/season straight up: 10-6/126-79.

Last week/season against the spread: 8-8/91-114.

about the writer

about the writer

Mark Craig

Sports reporter

Mark Craig has covered the NFL nearly every year since Brett Favre was a rookie back in 1991. A sports writer since 1987, he is covering his 30th NFL season out of 37 years with the Canton (Ohio) Repository (1987-99) and the Star Tribune (1999-present).

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Lindsey Wasson/The Associated Press

Indianapolis and its 44-year-old signal caller return home to face a 49ers team with a toothless pass rush.

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