Mark Craig's Week 14 NFL picks against the spread

Even with the Steelers falling to Washington, last week was an easier week for picking games straight up and against the spread.

This week? Flip a coin, pal.

Six home teams are underdogs by fewer than four points.

Who do you take? Andy Dalton (-3½) or Cincinnati? Slumping Arizona (-2) or surging Giants? Houston's inability to stop the run (-1½), or Chicago's inability to run or pass the ball? Atlanta's rising stature (-2½) or Anthony Lynn's sinking career?

Three games have point spreads larger than seven points.

Do you take Seattle's suspect defense and give 13½ points to the Jets? A Jets team that won't quit and a Seahawks team that hasn't won by 14 points all season?

At least Seattle is one of the few easy straight-up picks. There's another one that seems easy on paper. Vikings fans don't want to know which one.

Year to date: 124-68-1; 98-94-1

Vikings games: 7-5

Here are this week's picks:

Patriots (+5) at Rams: Patriots by 4

It's hard to bet against a Rams team that's 8-2 when not playing the 49ers. LA enter Thursday night's game having won three of its last four games, beating Seattle, Tampa Bay and Arizona. But Bill Belichick and his band of misfit toys march on, using the regular season to get better in December. They're 4-1 in their last five games. Belichick will find a way to confuse Jared Goff and Sean McVay and win a low-scoring contest. Sound familiar? #SuperBowlLIII

Making this a one-score loss probably is being overly kind to the Vikings. The Bucs and their aggressive defense are coming off a bye week. The Vikings and their ace running back Dalvin Cook are coming off a 68-minute overtime game in which Cook played 79 snaps with a career-high 38 touches. Kirk Cousins will face heavy pressure. Tom Brady won't. It's a recipe for a crash landing for a Vikings team that's 5-1 in its last six games. Score prediction: Buccaneers 31, Vikings 24 .

Packers (-7½) at Lions: Packers by 3

Freed from the Matt Patricia era, the Lions will make a serious run at giving interim coach Darrell Bevell a 2-0 record. But Aaron Rodgers won't let the Packers blow this one.

Titans (-7½) at Jaguars: Titans by 10

That soul-crushing loss to the Vikings should be the last sign of life we'll see from Jacksonville.

This basically is a playoff game for the Cowboys and Dalton. Cincinnati knows better than anyone how things go for Andy in playoff games.

Cardinals (-2) at Giants: Giants by 3

Ignore the point spread and take the better team.

Texans (-1½) at Bears: Bears by 3

Chicago's six-game losing streak ends because the Bears can beat Houston with defense and no quarterback.

The Broncos held Patrick Mahomes to 22 points last week. They play Teddy Bridgewater this week. You do the math.

Chiefs (-7) at Dolphins: Chiefs by 3

It's tempting to give the points because Kansas City's offense is due to make someone pay for the Chiefs winning four straight games by a total of only 15 points. But Miami is a) good, and b) has the league's No. 2 scoring defense.

Jets (+13½) at Seahawks: Seahawks by 10

No way Seattle goes 0-for-New Jersey on back-to-back weeks.

In a coast-to-coast travel game in December, take the lousy home team to win a close one against the lousy road team.

Saints (-7) at Eagles: Saints by 10

Raise your hand if your preseason game-by-game synopsis had Taysom Hill beating Jalen Hurts by 10 points in Week 14.

49ers (-3) vs. Washington in Arizona: Washington by 3

Oh, what the heck. It's too good a story to get all negative now. Comeback Player of the Year lock Alex Smith gives Washington yet another big win by beating the team that drafted him 15 years ago.

Buffalo is about to find out how mad an 11-1 team gets when it loses to Washington one week and is an underdog the next.

Ravens (-1) at Browns: Browns by 14

Baltimore is about to feel the force of 21 years of pent-up frustration being released in prime time on "Monday Night Football." If only COVID-19 hadn't robbed the Cleveland fans of this spotlight.

Colts (-3) at Raiders: Raiders 31, Colts 27

What happens two weeks after a 37-point loss to Falcons and a week after needing a miracle finish to beat the winless Jets? An upset of the division-leading Colts. Duh.

Result: Bills 34, 49ers 24.