Week 11 NFL picks: Don't overthink stress-free Vikings win

November 15, 2019 at 9:34PM
(The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Minnesota Vikings defensive end Danielle Hunter (99) celebrates with teammate Everson Griffen (97) after sacking Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford during the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Nov. 4, 2018, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)
(Associated Press/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

This author probably isn't the right guy to assure scar-tissue-filled Vikings fans they needn't worry about being 10-point favorites against a Broncos quarterback making his debut NFL road start.

The Vikings will be without Adam Thielen and Linval Joseph. Again. They'll be without Josh Kline and Anthony Harris as well. So there is the usual #itsacrazyleague concern.

And, oh yeah, the author is lacking lately in picking credibility. He's whiffed on the past two Vikings picks with guesses of a win at Kansas City and a loss at Dallas.

Also, last week's guesses overall weren't the greatest (4-8 overall/5-7 against the spread). But, hey, don't blame this fella. Blame the Falcons for beating the host Saints as 13 1/2-point underdogs. And the Dolphins for beating the host Colts as 11 1/2-point underdogs. And the Titans for beating the Chiefs as 6-point underdogs.

As for that Seahawks upset at San Francisco on Monday night, well, at least last week's Upset Special came through.

This week, there are five road favorites — Buffalo at Miami; Dallas at Detroit; New Orleans at Tampa Bay; New England at Philly; and Kansas City at the Chargers.

Take the Cowboys, Saints, Patriots (duh) and Chiefs. But this week's Upset Special has Miami's players winning a third straight game to continue thoroughly screwing up management's plans for tanking the season.

Here are this week's picks:

Broncos plus-10 at Vikings: Vikings 35, Broncos 14

Not going to overthink this one or compare it to the Great Buffalo Blunder of '18. Broncos quarterback Brandon Allen's second NFL start and road debut will be at U.S. Bank Stadium against the Vikings' defense. 'Nuff said.

Record picking Vikings games: 6-4

Jets plus-2 1/2 at Redskins: Redskins by 3

Texans plus-4 at Ravens: Ravens by 7

Jaguars plus-2 1/2 at Colts: Jaguars by 3

Cowboys minus-6 1/2 at Lions: Cowboys by 7

Falcons plus-4 at Panthers: Panthers by 7

Saints minus-5 1/2 at Buccaneers: Saints by 10

Cardinals plus-10 at 49ers: 49ers by 14

Patriots minus-3 1/2 at Eagles: Patriots by 10

Bengals plus-12 at Raiders: Raiders by 3

Bears plus-6 at Rams: Rams by 3

Chiefs minus-4 at Chargers: Chiefs by 6

UPSET SPECIAL

Bills minus-6 1/2 at Dolphins: Dolphins 28, Bills 23

Upset Special record: 4-6

Overall record / last week: 67-46 / 4-8

Vs. spread / last week: 51-61 / 5-7

about the writer

about the writer

Mark Craig

Sports reporter

Mark Craig has covered the NFL nearly every year since Brett Favre was a rookie back in 1991. A sports writer since 1987, he is covering his 30th NFL season out of 37 years with the Canton (Ohio) Repository (1987-99) and the Star Tribune (1999-present).

See Moreicon