Few moves made by local teams — particularly the Twins — are universally hailed as smart decisions. But I really thought the news Tuesday that Brian Dozier had signed a four-year, $20 million deal with the Twins might be one of those exceptions. In addition to being win-win (Dozier gets security, the Twins get value), it showed a level of commitment to a very good player.
Silly me.
The comments section was, once again, set ablaze from every direction. Sure, there were some who praised the move. Others, however, barked everything from "overpaid!" to complaining about the Twins making a move they didn't need to make to numerous digs at Dozier's batting average.
It's the last point on which we'd like to focus for a little while.
In an ideal world, Dozier wouldn't hit in the .240s, like he has the past two seasons. He would instead hit in the .270s. (OK, in an ideal world every Twins hitter would bat 1.000, games would never end because nobody could get them out and eventually MLB would have to just step in and name them World Series champs. Dozier hitting .270 is more of the ideal realistic world).
There are reasons to believe that Dozier will settle in closer to that .270 range than his current .240s. He will mature as a hitter, continue to spray the ball more (last season, most of his line drives and ground balls went toward left field).
But even if Dozier never becomes more than what he is, he will be a very valuable hitter (and overall player) for the Twins. Among MLB second basemen last season, Dozier ranked 5th in on-base percentage — largely because he walked 89 times, far more than any other second baseman in the league. His OPS of .762 was fourth among 2Bs. And his WAR (wins above replacement) was fifth.
He's an above-average player, and in a lot of very important categories he's arguably elite. A better batting average would likely help all his other numbers, too (assuming it didn't come at the expense of power), but there's no reason he has to improve in that area to be valuable.
