Watching the Tropics
According to NOAA's National Hurricane Center, there is an area of interest off the southeast coastline that has a medium chance of tropical formation over the next 5 days. It doesn't look all that impressive on the IR Satellite loop from Saturday, but it will continue to bring areas of heavy rain to parts of the Bahamas over the coming days.
Watching the Tropics
According to NOAA's NHC, the area of interest mentioned above has a medium chance of tropical development over the next 5 days. It should stay fairly stationary over the coming days, so areas of heavy rain can't be ruled out for landmasses near this area of interest.
Large Wildfires & Smoke From Saturday
The map below shows several large wildfires burning in the Western US and across Canada. Hazy skies and unhealthy air qualities continue in many locations downwind of these fires. Note that dense smoke has made it all the way to the East Coast and even into the Western Atlantic.
Smoky Skies Midday Sunday
According to NOAA's HRRR weather model, the smoke analysis for midday Sunday shows more widespread smoke across the northern tier of the nation, including Minnesota. Skies will likely remain hazy with the potential of unhealthy air qualities in some locations. Interesting to see wildfire smoke as far south as Florida.
Minnesota Drought Update
According to the US Drought Monitor, nearly 20% of the state is now considered to be in an Extreme Drought, which is up from the 4% last week. Keep in mind that this is the first time any part of MN has seen Extreme Drought since April of 2013. 72% of the state is in a Severe Drought, which is up from the nearly 52% from late week. Moderate drought covers much of the Twin cities.
Precipitation Departure From Average Since Jan. 1st
It has been a warm and dry year so far with precipitation running well below average across much of the region. Here's the precipitation from average since January 1st, which shows several locations running several inches below average. The Twin Cities is nearly -5.25" below average precipitation since the beginning of the year, which is the 27th driest start to any year on record. Milwaukee is nearly -9.00" below average, which is the 3rd driest start to any year on record.
Sunday Weather Outlook
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Sunday shows hot, dry and hazy weather conditions in place through much of the day. Note that the MSP Airport has seen (18) 90F days so far this year, so Sunday's high of 93F will make it the 19th day with highs in the 90s so far this year. The average number of 90F days at MSP is generally around 13, last year we had 12.
Not As Humid Sunday
Friday was a very sticky day with dewpoints in the 70s, which is considered to be Tropical. Note that dewpoints will be nearly 20 degrees lower on Sunday, which means that there will be nearly half as much water in the atmosphere than there was on Friday.
Minneapolis Meteograms
The meteograms for Minneapolis on Sunday will be warm once again with temps warming from near 70F in the morning to the low/mid 90s by the afternoon. Hazy/smoky skies will be in place once again with wind gusts approaching 20mph out of the west in the afternoon.
Regional Weather Outlook for Sunday
The weather outlook across the region on Sunday shows hot and dry weather in place across much of the region. Note that temps will warm into the upper 80s and low/mid 90s, which will be nearly +5F to +10F above average. There may also be an isolated late day shower or storm southwest of the Twin Cities.
Extended Weather Outlook for Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook for Minneapolis shows a string of very warm days as we head through the rest of the weekend and last full week of July. Most days will warm into the 90s, which will be nearly +10F to +15F above average for mid/late July. There could be a few stray showers and storms here and there, but it doesn't appear that any substantial rainfall will fall anytime soon.
Weather Outlook Through Early Next Week
Here's the extended weather outlook into early next week, which shows a few showers and storms during the PM hours over the next few days. However, the rest of the weekend looks mostly dry as well as early next week.
Regional Rainfall Potential Through 7PM Monday
Here's the rainfall potential through 7PM Monday across the Midwest, which shows better rain chances well south of Minnesota. There could be a few isolated showers/storms over the next couple of days, but it won't be enough to get us out of the drought anytime soon.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps continuing across much of the nation, including the Upper Midwest.
We May Need Bigger Climate Models
By Paul Douglas
I'm reading posts and articles from climate scientists reportedly "shocked" by the recent heat and flooding extremes observed around the planet. 121F in British Columbia - 24 inches of rain in 24 hours in a dry region of central China? These extreme events are surpassing what we might expect to witness on a warming planet.
Climate models provide insight on broad trends, but lack physics to predict specific extreme events. It's a little like tornadoes: we can tell when the atmosphere is ripe, but we can't pinpoint which towns will be hit. So it goes with climate disasters. We're going to need bigger computers and better math that capture sour new reality.
The approach of another heat dome sparks random T-storms into Thursday, with drying skies for the weekend. I see 90s into Thursday, then slight relief by the end of the week. 2021: the summer upper 80s became "slight relief". Hotter and drier weather should spill into August; no big break in this steamy pattern is imminent. Hoping for big blobs on Doppler.
Extended Forecast
SUNDAY: Hot sunshine. Winds: W 8-13. High: 93.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of thunder. Winds: W 5-10. Low: 69
MONDAY: Steamy sun, few T-storms. Winds: SW 10-15. High: 95.
TUESDAY: Hazy sunshine, isolated T-storm. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 72. High: 94.
WEDNESDAY: Hottest day. Feels like 100F+. Winds: SW 10-15. Wake-up: 74. High: 96.
THURSDAY: Early storms, then clearing, "cooler". Winds: N 10-15. Wake-up: 72 High: 89.
FRIDAY: Sunny skies, lower humidity. Winds: SW 7-12 Wake-up: 68. High: 88.
SATURDAY: Blue sky, still plenty hot. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 69. High: 90.
This Day in Weather History
July 25th
1987: A historic deluge ends in the Twin Cities. Two-day totals include over a foot of rain at Bloomington. Nearly 10 inches falls in downtown Minneapolis, and near 9 inches is recorded in St. Paul. At one time the water reaches a depth of 13.5 feet on I-494 near East Bush Lake Road. I-494 in Bloomington would be closed for nearly 5 days.
1891: Heavy frost hits Elkton in Mower County in southeast Minnesota. The frost kills all vegetable crops. The low in Elkton is 34, and the Twin Cities have a low of 49.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
July 25th
Average High: 83F (Record: 99F set in 1999)
Average Low: 64F (Record: 50F set in 1891)
Record Rainfall: 2.07" set in 1878
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
July 25th
Sunrise: 5:51am
Sunset: 8:47pm
Hours of Daylight: ~14 hours & 56 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minute & 7 seconds
Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 20th): ~41 Minutes
Moon Phase for July 25th at Midnight
2.2 Days After Full "Buck" Moon
"July 23: Full Buck Moon 9:37PM - When the new antlers of buck deer push out from their foreheads in coatings of velvety fur. It was also often called the Full Thunder Moon, thunderstorms being now most frequent. Sometimes this is also called the Full Hay Moon."
What's in the Night Sky?
"The full moon, Jupiter, Saturn ... what could be better? Watch as they light the night from dusk until dawn on July 23 to 26, 2021."
National High Temps Sunday
The weather outlook on Sunday shows hot temps in place across much of the Midwest, where temps will be nearly +5F to +15F above average. Interestingly, high temps will be about the same as that in the Midwest, but a 92F high temp in Phoenix will be nearly -15F below average thanks to monsoon showers and storms.
National Weather Outlook
The national weather outlook through the weekend shows scattered showers and storms across the Desert Southwest. Some of the monsoon storms could produce very heavy rainfall and flash flooding through the weekend. Spotty showers and storms will be possible along and east of the Mississippi River Valley.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center areas of heavy rainfall will be possible in the Southwest through the weekend, where monsoon storms will continue. There will also be pockets of heavier rainfall here and there along and east of the Mississippi River Valley.
Climate Stories
"New technology plays growing role in predicting, corralling western wildfires"
"As drought- and wind-driven wildfires have become more dangerous across the American West in recent years, firefighters have tried to become smarter in how they prepare. They're using new technology and better positioning of resources in a bid to keep small blazes from erupting into mega-fires like the ones that torched a record 4% of California last year, or the nation's biggest wildfire this year that has charred a section of Oregon, half the size of Rhode Island. There have been 730 more wildfires in California so far this year than last, an increase of about 16%. But nearly triple the area has burned — 470 square miles (1,200 square kilometers). Catching fires more quickly gives firefighters a better chance of keeping them small. That includes using new fire behavior computer modeling that can help assess risks before fires start, then project their path and growth. When "critical weather" is predicted — hot, dry winds or lightning storms — the technology, on top of hard-earned experience, allows California planners to pre-position fire engines, bulldozers, aircraft and hand crews armed with shovels and chain saws in areas where they can respond more quickly. With the computer modeling, "they can do a daily risk forecast across the state, so they use that for planning," said Lynne Tolmachoff, spokeswoman for Cal Fire, California's firefighting agency."
"These companies are sucking carbon out of the atmosphere — and investors are piling in"
"The race to reduce carbon emissions is heating up, much like the planet itself is. But reducing emissions alone will not be enough to stop what's happening. It is not even enough to reach the goal of the Paris climate agreement, which is to limit global in this century to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. There is, however, a technology that's being touted as a way to get us there faster — vacuuming carbon from the atmosphere — and major investors are now piling in. Just outside Zurich, more than a dozen massive fans are fast at work, cleaning the air of carbon dioxide. So-called direct air capture is the leading edge of what could become the largest environmental industry aimed at saving the planet. The company behind it, Climeworks, is one of the few offering the technology to basically vacuum the atmosphere of carbon. The plant in Switzerland removes about 900 tons of carbon dioxide per year, according to Climeworks policy chief Chris Beuttler. To put it in perspective, globally we are emitting 40 billion tons."
"Dubai Is Creating Artificial Rainstorms With Drones"
"When New Yorker Brian Kahn woke up on Tuesday morning, he found a nearby chair to be illuminated in what he described as a "bizarre sort of millennial pink hue." After checking the weather forecast, his suspicions were confirmed: smoke from wildfires in western United States and central Canada had reached New York City, filtering the sun's light and casting a warm hazy glow over the city. "Not only can you see the smoke, not only can you feel the smoke in your lungs, but you can also actually smell the smoke as well, so it's very low to the ground," Kahn, MA, a lecturer at the Columbia Climate School and managing editor of Earther tells Verywell. "It's pretty surreal given that this smoke has traveled thousands of miles to be here," he adds. An aggressive heat wave earlier this month set off at least 78 fires in the West Coast, burning more than a million acres. The ongoing Bootleg Fire in Oregon has already burned an area larger than the city of Los Angeles. And smoke from California's Dixie Fire has created a plume so large that it's creating lightning strikes, which could set off new fires. When wildfire smoke is released into the air, it can be swept up and carried thousands of miles, bringing with it harmful pollutants."
