Warmer Monday With Smoke Still In The Air

We continue to watch wildfire smoke across the state, somewhat trapped by high pressure that is in place across the region. While the greatest concentration of smoke near the surface will be out in western and northern Minnesota during the morning hours Monday (producing the worst air quality), that smoke will drift eastward through the day.

Due to the continuing poor air quality, an Air Quality Alert continues through 3 PM Tuesday across the entire state. Down in Iowa, their Air Quality Alert is in place through Noon Monday.

_______________________________________________

We are still watching wildfire smoke across the region on Monday, as mentioned above, otherwise high pressure is in place leading to sunny skies above that smoke and haze with light winds. After slightly cooler temperatures Sunday in the metro, highs start to climb again Monday reaching into the low or mid-80s.

Another hazy, smoky day is expected across the state Monday with the greatest concentration of smoke across portions of western and northern Minnesota, but that smoke does drift eastward during the day. Highs will be in the 70s and 80s - around average in southern Minnesota, but about 5F above average in northern portions of the state.

_______________________________________________

Temperatures climb through the early and mid-week timeframe, with highs approaching 90F by Wednesday. Temperatures may take a slight step backward Thursday before climbing right back up to around 90F Friday.

As we look back at July, the average temperature for the Twin Cities was only 1.7F degrees above average - that was on the back of eight days with a high that was below average. The hottest day was back right after Independence Day on the 5th when the high climbed to 96F. The ten days at or above 90F we saw in July was tied for the 29th most on record - the most were 18 days in 1936.

While there were scattered areas of heavy rain across the state in July (especially in portions of southern Minnesota), all climate locations ended the month below average. In the Twin Cities, the 0.87" that fell was the 8th driest July on record. In St. Cloud, the 0.83" was the 6th driest.

_______________________________________________

Meanwhile, all climate sites are also running below average for the year. In the Twin Cities, the almost 6" deficit puts January-July 2021 as the 22nd driest on record.

_______________________________________________

_______________________________________________

Accurate Smoke Predictions Are Problematic
By Paul Douglas

When in a drought don't predict rain, the old proverb insists, with much truth. Or smoke, for that matter. Predicting the depth of a smoke plume for a specific zip code hours or days in advance is somewhere between difficult and impossible.

Why? Because all weather models have limitations. There is precedent. Determining which thunderstorms will spawn tornadoes, hours in advance? Will storms merge or stall, sparking historic flooding? We can tell when conditions are "ripe", but the details exceed our physics & computer power. Smoky challenges? Trying to predict the growth (or shrinkage) of wildfires hundreds of miles upwind.

Another dry week is on tap; a comfortable start giving way to 90s next weekend. The arrival of sweaty air sparks a few late-week thunderstorms, but I would bet a half-eaten Minnesota State Fair corn dog that a warm, dry bias continues into September. I hope I'm wrong.

_______________________________________________

Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Plenty of sun, less smoke. Wake up 60. High 82. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.

TUESDAY: Warm sunshine. Wake up 63. High 85. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 7-12 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny and warmer. Wake up 65. High 88. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 10-20 mph.

FRIDAY: Hot sunshine. Wake up 69. High 90. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind S 10-15 mph.

SATURDAY: Steamy with a few strong T-storms. Wake up 71. High 91. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind S 15-30 mph.

SUNDAY: Uncomfortably hot and humid. Wake 73. High 95. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

_______________________________________________

Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
August 2nd

*When Do We Drop Below 14.5 Hours Of Daylight? August 6th (14 hours, 27 minutes, and 43 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/After 6:30 AM?: August 28th (6:30 AM)
*When Is The Sunset At/Before 8:30 PM?: August 7th (8:30 PM)

_______________________________________________

This Day in Weather History
August 2nd

1831: Unseasonably cool air moves into Minnesota with light frost reported at Ft. Snelling.

_______________________________________________

The heaviest rain through Tuesday will fall across portions of the Southeastern United States as that frontal boundary stalls out and areas of low pressure continue to move along it. We will also see some heavy rain in the Four Corners region due to monsoonal moisture.

_______________________________________________

Korey Stringer's death, 20 years later: The lasting impact and how the NFL changed

More from ESPN: "Twenty summers ago, a healthy NFL star died after practice on a scorching day at the Minnesota Vikings' training camp. The words still sting and baffle in equal measure. Korey Stringer's sudden death at age 27 was not from a heart attack, a broken neck or an undetected genetic malady. The offensive tackle succumbed to complications from exertional heatstroke, an avoidable and easily treated condition that sports medicine largely ignored at the time. The 20th anniversary of Stringer's death on Aug. 1, 2001, will bring a new round of pain to his family and friends. They will take comfort, however, in knowing that their tragedy changed the world. Almost immediately, football programs at all levels began reevaluating outdated notions of heat conditioning, hydration and the psychology of pushing through physical distress. "It gave them permission to use common sense," his widow, Kelci Stringer, said this summer."

Utilities are struggling to keep the lights on as fires, drought plague California

The oldest tree in eastern US survived millennia – but rising seas could kill it

More from The Guardian: "A wizened eastern bald cypress dwells in an expanse of North Carolina's wetlands. It lives among a cluster of eastern bald cypress trees in the state's Black River, some with origins dating back a millennium. But this singular tree has witnessed more than its comrades; a 2019 study found it's been alive since at least 605BCE. It's the oldest-known living tree in eastern North America and the fifth-oldest living non-clonal tree species in the world. If these ancient trees could talk, they might wail a warning – a message about the coalescing threats to their continued survival. What we can learn from a 2,624-year-old bald cypress may help piece together how humanity can best mitigate and adapt to the unprecedented impacts of the climate crisis."

_______________________________________________

Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser