Warm, Windy Thursday With A Cold Front Moving In

Wasn't Tuesday an excellent mid-November day across the region (despite the gusty winds)? MSP Airport made it to 66F for a high, and while it fell short of the 71F record from 1990, it was the second warmest November 14th on record. The only record high across the state Tuesday was up in International Falls where it reached 58F, beating the previous record of 56F from 1953.

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We're tracking a system moving across the state on Thursday. The Twin Cities will be out ahead of it through the midday/early afternoon hours, allowing temperatures to climb into the low 60s for highs along with strong gusty winds. Once we get behind it - closer to sundown - temperatures will start to fall. We'll also see increasing cloud cover, however, it is likely to remain dry in the metro.

As a system rolls through the state on Thursday, most areas will remain dry. The best chance of precipitation will be across far northern Minnesota (where a mix or some snowflakes are possible) and late in the day in southeastern Minnesota (in the form of rain). With a cold front driving through the state, areas out ahead of it will be able to climb into the 60s. However, areas behind it for most of the day up in northwestern Minnesota will be stuck in the 30s and 40s.

It'll be a windy Thursday across the region as well, with gusts peaking around 40 mph in the midday hours right before the frontal boundary moves through in the metro. That'll switch the winds from out of the south to eventually the northwest by the evening hours.

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Enjoy what is probably the last 60F-degree day of the year on Thursday, as cooler temperatures rush in toward Friday and the weekend. Friday will be the coolest of that three-day period with highs only in the low 40s behind the system that pushes through Thursday. Temperatures look to rebound to around 50F for both days of the weekend. Mainly sunny skies are expected all three days, with maybe a few more clouds around heading into Sunday.

We are tracking the potential for some precipitation early next week in the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. While it'll be warm enough to start as rain, snow chances might start to creep in Monday Night with cooler overnight temperatures. No matter what, though, it does appear that cooler air works in as we head through Thanksgiving week, with 40s Monday and Tuesday but 30s as we head toward the important travel day of Wednesday, as well as Thanksgiving Thursday and Black Friday.

An early look at Thanksgiving Day Thursday for the metro shows quiet weather in place, but chilly conditions for any outdoor pick-up games of football. Morning temperatures start off in the 20s with highs barely climbing to the low 30s. With stronger northwest winds, it'll feel like the teens for most of the day.

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Warmer, Wetter Trends Spark More Extremes
By Paul Douglas

60s in mid-November. Natural variability or climate change? Yes. All of the above. 2023 is the warmest year on record worldwide. The last decade was the warmest ever recorded. The oceans are experiencing record warmth. I can't be sure, but there may be a trend here. Winter comes later than it did for our parents and their parents. Super-sized autumns are a thing.

60s today will feel nice, in spite of winds gusting over 40 mph. Hang on!

We cool into the 40s tomorrow but bounce back above 50F Saturday and Sunday with generous sunshine. A little rain late Monday ends as flakes Tuesday, but no gnarly butt-kicking snowstorms are expected through Thanksgiving weekend. Just chilly. 30s on Turkey Day? Cold. Turkey.

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Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

THURSDAY: Some sun, gusts to 40 mph. Wake up 49. High 63. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SW 20-40 mph.

SATURDAY: Blue sky, quite pleasant. Wake up 33. High 52. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SW 7-12 mph.

SUNDAY: Sunny, last mild day. Wake up 37. High 51. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind E 5-10 mph.

MONDAY: Clouds increase, rain late. Wake up 40. High 47. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind E 10-15 mph.

TUESDAY: Few morning flakes, a cold wind. Wake up 31. High 37. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind NW 15-30 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Chilly, but no travel problems. Wake up 24. High 35. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 10-20 mph.

Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
November 16th

*Length Of Day: 9 hours, 31 minutes, and 32 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 20 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 9 Hours Of Sunlight? December 3rd (8 hours, 59 minutes, 24 seconds)
*When Is Sunrise At/After 7:30 AM? December 1st (7:30 AM)
*What Is The Earliest Sunset? December 8th-14th (4:31 PM)
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This Day in Weather History
November 16th

1933: Record lows are set in a few locations including Farmington with a low of 11 degrees below zero, Little Falls at 10 degrees below zero, Chaska at 9 below and Milaca at 8 degrees below.

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A system in the eastern Gulf over toward the Bahamas on Thursday will continue to bring showers and storms to the Southeastern United States - though probably not at as heavy levels as was observed on Wednesday. Elsewhere, a system out west brings rain and snow chances, with rain in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Mixed precipitation may occur across the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

Most of the heaviest rain in the Southeast will have fallen on Wednesday, but Wednesday-Friday totals could top 6" across portions of eastern and southern Florida.

The heaviest snow through the end of the week will be in the Northern Rockies, where a foot or more could fall at the highest elevations and the passes.

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More from Planet F1: "Ross Brawn admitted that the temperature was not something F1 originally considered when they were planning the upcoming Las Vegas Grand Prix. Up until 2022 the legendary motorsport figure was a part of Formula One Management in his role as motorsport managing director, meaning he would have been involved in the planning of a potential Las Vegas Grand Prix. But having left the company and now with the race just over a week away, Brawn admitted that cold temperatures were not something they originally planned for."

Global heat deaths could quadruple if action is not taken on climate change, study finds

More from NBC News: "Global heat deaths are projected to increase by 370% if action is not taken to limit the effects of global warming, according to a study published Tuesday in The Lancet, a medical journal. If average global temperatures reach 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels — as is expected without drastic action — an additional 524.9 million people are also expected to experience food insecurity, aggravating the global risk of malnutrition. The study, The Lancet Countdown, is in its eighth iteration and draws on the expertise of 114 scientists and health practitioners from 52 research institutions and U.N. agencies worldwide. It found that human-caused climate change is making health-threatening temperatures more frequent, especially in the U.S."

Wildfire, drought cause $11.2 billion in damage to private timberland in three Pacific states, study finds

More from Oregon State University: "Wildfires and drought have led to $11.2 billion in damages to privately held timberland in California, Oregon and Washington over the past two decades, a new Oregon State University study found. That represents about a 10% reduction in the value of private timberland in the three states. Based on recent climate change attribution studies by other scientists, the authors of the study attribute about half of the economic damages to climate change. While past research has estimated impacts of climate change on the value of forests in the future, researchers were interested in how climate change has already affected the value of forests in the new study."

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- D.J. Kayser