Warm Weather Sticks Around

Another hot and humid day is expected Thursday in the metro with morning temperatures in the mid-70s and highs climbing to the upper 80s and low 90s. There will be a chance of storms early in the morning and again in the afternoon hours. Otherwise, a mix of sun and clouds are expected.

The best chance of storms Thursday will be across portions of central and southern Minnesota, with drier weather as you head north. Just like in the Twin Cities, the best chance of storms would be early in the day and again in the afternoon and evening. Highs will be up to 10F degrees above average.

A few of the storms could be strong across southern and southeastern Minnesota, where there is a Marginal and Slight Risk of severe weather in place. That severe risk extends upward to the metro. The greatest severe risks will be large hail and damaging winds, but across the Slight Risk area there could be a few tornadoes.

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As we look toward the last weekend of June we are still going to watch the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms each day, with the greatest chance occurring Friday (around 30-40%). The chances this weekend will be closer to the 10-20% range. More clouds than sun are expected Saturday, with more sun than clouds on Sunday. Highs into the weekend will be in the low to mid-80s.

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For the most part this month we have observed above average highs in the metro with only this past Sunday to Tuesday seeing below average highs.

The other story is the very dry weather across the region this month, with most locations running at least 1-4" below average - even with the heavy rain that fell in some locations this past Sunday. The 1.10" at MSP so far this month is the 16th driest start to the month (through the 22nd). St. Cloud is at its 4th driest start to June.

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Warm Weather Sticks Around
By D.J. Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas

Happy National Bomb Pop Day! You've probably consumed many cold treats already this month with heat hovering over the region. Only three days in June - this past Sunday through Tuesday - registered below average highs in the metro. Now, the warmth has returned and will stick around with highs around to above average through the end of June. Looking toward that first week of July, including the 4th of July weekend... you guessed it, odds favor above average temps

Speaking of the 4th of July, the way too early (and likely to change) forecast shows dry weather and highs in the 80s

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D.J.'s Extended Twin Cities Forecast

THURSDAY: A few scattered storms. Wake up 76. High 89. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind W 5-10 mph.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Some late day storms. Wake up 68. High 83. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind NE 5-10 mph.

SATURDAY: Mainly cloudy. Isolated PM shower. Wake up 64. High 82. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NE 5-10 mph.

MONDAY: Dry start. Maybe a PM shower. Wake up 62. High 83. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind N 5-10 mph.

TUESDAY: Much of the same. Sunny, isolated PM rain. Wake up 63. High 84. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind N 5-10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Mainly sunny to end June. Wake up 65. High 84. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NE 5-10 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
June 24th

*When Do We Drop Below 15 Hours And 30 Minutes Of Daylight? July 5th (15 hours, 29 minutes, and 3 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/After 5:30 AM?: June 30th (5:30 AM)
*When Is The Latest Sunset Of The Year?: June 19th-July 2nd (9:03 PM)

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This Day in Weather History
June 24th

2002: Heavy rains fall on already saturated ground, leading to flooding. 5.50 inches fall at Delano, and half of a mobile home park at Howard Lake is evacuated due to rising water.

1972: Frost develops across northeast Minnesota. Duluth has a low of 35 and Tower bottoms out at 32.

A couple of areas of low pressure across the central United States will help produce showers and thunderstorms across the central U.S. stretching to the Front Range. Afternoon storms will be possible in the Rockies. A frontal boundary lingering in the Southeast will lead to a few storms.

The heaviest rain through the end of the work week will be across portions of the upper Midwest, where some areas could receive at least 3-5" of rain.

A record-breaking stretch of heat is expected across the Northwest late this week into early next week. Excessive Heat Watches are in place for numerous areas including Seattle and Portland.

The warmest day right now will be Sunday. The warmest June high in Seattle history was 96F set three times, most recently in June of 2017. Meanwhile, the warmest June high in Portland history was 102F back in 2006.

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More from c|net: "The Hubble Space Telescope has spent over three decades bringing us glorious images and data, but the spacecraft is showing its age. The Hubble team is troubleshooting a problem with the telescope's payload computer — a piece of hardware built in the 1980s — that controls its science instruments. But there might be something else going on. The computer issue cropped up on June 13. "After analyzing the data, the Hubble operations team is investigating whether a degrading memory module led to the computer halt," NASA said in a statement last week. Hubble is a joint project from NASA and the European Space Agency."

More Intense And Frequent Thunderstorms Linked To Global Climate Variability

More from Texas A&M Today: "Large thunderstorms in the Southern Great Plains of the U.S. are some of the strongest on Earth. In recent years, these storms have increased in frequency and intensity, and new research shows that these shifts are linked to climate variability. Co-authored by Christopher Maupin, Courtney Schumacher and Brendan Roark, all scientists in Texas A&M University's College of Geosciences, along with other researchers, the findings were recently published in Nature Geoscience. In the study, researchers analyzed oxygen isotopes from 30,000–50,000 year old stalactites from Texas caves to understand trends in past thunderstorms and their durations, using radar-based calibration for the region's rainfall isotopes. They discovered that when storm regimes shift from weakly to strongly organized on millennial timescales, they coincide with well-known, global abrupt climate shifts during the last glacial period, which occurred between about 120,000 and 11,500 years ago."

Greater Yellowstone Area Expected to Become Warmer, Drier

More from the USGS: "Temperature significantly increased and snowfall decreased in the iconic Greater Yellowstone Area since 1950 because of climate change, and these trends will likely continue through the rest of the century, according to a climate report published today. Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey, Montana State University and the University of Wyoming studied climate change in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) from 1950-2018. They evaluated how these changes could progress by 2100 based on various greenhouse gas emission scenarios and found that average GYA temperatures increased by 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit and could increase an additional 5-10 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100."

Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser