Last year at around this time, oddsmakers examined the Vikings from all angles and arrived at an over-under win total projection of 8.5.
In a 17-game season, that put Minnesota squarely in middle ground. Bet the over, and you thought the Vikings would go at least 9-8. Bet the under, you were banking on 8-9.
The Vegas number turned out to be quite accurate, as it often is, as 8-9 was the final record.
Massive changes ensued. The Vikings fired head coach Mike Zimmer and GM Rick Spielman. New systems were promised. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and Kevin O'Connell were hired. A collaborative culture was born.
But ... the roster remained largely intact. Kirk Cousins stayed. So did Danielle Hunter. Other key veteran contracts were restructured.
When Vegas took a fresh look at the Vikings this year, adding up the cumulative weight of all that is new and all that is not new, they arrived at a familiar place in odds released Thursday: an over-under number of 8.5 wins, just like last year.
Yes, the exact midpoint, the equivalent of winning eight, losing eight and tying one in this 17-game NFL schedule.
It makes sense. The Vikings won eight games last year, have averaged 8.3 wins during the Kirk Cousins era and have a lot of holdovers.
If they really are going to break free from mediocrity, it will come from Adofo-Mensah and O'Connell cashing in a substantial bet on themselves (metaphorically, not in the kind of way that would get them suspended like Calvin Ridley).
The only thing that is substantially different about these Vikings is how they are setting out to deploy a lot of the same players.
Adofo-Mensah has made some smart moves on the margins, including bringing back corner Patrick Peterson on a much cheaper deal than the one Peterson signed a year ago.
O'Connell has a chance to leverage the Vikings' offensive skill position players in new ways while also having a hand in a defense that will look and play differently from how it looked for so many years under Zimmer.
I don't know if I would take the over or under on the 2022 win total, but I do know this: I would bet on a lot more roster changes in 2023 if this doesn't work out.
