Vikings NFL draft order (and slim playoff chances): Week 15

December 9, 2014 at 7:58PM

Every Tuesday, we'll analyze the Vikings draft chances for the upcoming NFL Draft.

The Vikings have their second winning streak this season after defeating the Jets in overtime on Sunday. They've now won two in a row and crept up to 6-7, while falling out of the top 10 in terms of draft seeding.

We'll get right in to their current draft position, and follow up with the one long shot scenario where the Vikings can make the playoffs. So here's how the draft order looks with record, strength of schedule tiebreaker (if necessary) and upcoming opponent listed in parentheses:

  1. Tampa Bay (2-11) (.455) (at Carolina on Sunday)
    1. Jacksonville (2-11) (.535) (at Baltimore on Sunday)
      1. Tennessee (2-11) (vs. New York Jets on Sunday)
        1. New York Jets (2-11) (.577) (at Tennessee on Sunday)
          1. Oakland (2-11) (.583) (at Kansas City on Sunday)
            1. Washington (3-10) (at New York Giants on Sunday)
              1. New York Giants (4-9) (vs. Washington on Sunday)
                1. Carolina (4-8-1) (vs. Tampa Bay on Sunday)
                  1. Chicago (5-8) (.510) (vs. New Orleans on Monday)
                    1. New Orleans (5-8) (at Chicago on Monday)
                      1. Minnesota (6-7) (.490) (at Detroit on Sunday)
                        1. St. Louis (6-7) (.551) (vs. Arizona on Thursday)

                          So with the win, the Vikings dropped from No. 9 to 11 if the season ended today. The Bears and Saints both jumped ahead of the Vikings with losses to the Cowboys and Panthers last week. The two will play each other this week in one of four matchups between teams with the 10 worst records in the NFL.

                          We can now eliminate the Vikings from the list of teams that won't have a top five pick. There are five teams tied the three games remaining for the worst record with just two wins. We'll have a better idea next week of what will be the Vikings' worst possible pick in the 2015 NFL Draft.

                          The Vikings' playoff chances also took a hit despite the victory. It dropped from .03 percent to .005 percent over the weekend with wins by the Cowboys, Lions and Seahawks that moved them all to 9-4.

                          But there's still one scenario where the Vikings can make the playoffs. Get your pencil and paper (or your notes app) out and follow along:

                          1) The Vikings must win the final three games against the Lions, Dolphins and Bears. They'd be eliminated with a loss to any of the remaining three teams on their schedule. That's a given.

                          2) The Vikings must root for a lot of chaos in the NFC West. They need the Rams to win out, the Seahawks to lose out and the 49ers to lose at least one of their final two games. Here are their schedules:

                          Rams: vs. Arizona, vs. New York Giants, at Seattle.

                          Seahawks: vs. San Francisco, at Arizona, vs. St. Louis

                          49ers: at Seattle, vs. San Diego, vs. Arizona

                          The Vikings need the Rams (6-7) and Seahawks (9-4) to a have the same record at 9-7, while the 49ers (7-6) need to finish 9-7 or worse. The Rams would hold the division tiebreakers over the Seahawks and 49ers based on head-to-head win percentage and finish second in the NFC West. Keep this in mind for later.

                          3) The Vikings needs the loser of the Eagles-Cowboys game this week to lose the remaining two games and drop to 9-7. They both sit at 9-4 currently. Here's both of their remaining schedules:

                          Cowboys: at Philadelphia, vs. Indianapolis, at Washington

                          Eagles: vs. Dallas, at Washington, at New York Giants

                          4) The Vikings need the Lions (9-4) to stay out of their way. If the Vikings beat the Lions this week, they should root for them because they hold the division tiebreaker on the Vikings if both teams finish the season 9-7.

                          The Rams, the Vikings and either the Cowboys or Eagles would be in a three-way tie for the final wild card spot at 9-7. The Rams would be the first eliminated because the Vikings hold the head-to-head tiebreaker in their season-opening loss.

                          It'd then come down to the Vikings and either the Eagles or Cowboys. The Vikings would hold the tiebreaker over either team based on a better win percentage in the NFC. If the Eagles lose out, they'd finish 5-7 in the conference, while the Cowboys would be 6-6. The Vikings, with wins over the Lions and Bears, would finish 7-5 in the NFC and sneak in as the No. 6 seed.

                          You got all that? If not, here's your cheat sheet for this week.

                          Thursday: The Vikings need the Rams to beat the Cardinals or else they'd be eliminated from the playoffs before they even wrap up practice this week.

                          Sunday: The Vikings need to beat the Lions and need 49ers to beat the Seahawks. They also need someone to lose in the Cowboys-Eagles game. A tie would eliminate the Vikings as well.

                          Class dismissed.

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