Vikings formula for Super Bowl win can't be all defense

A number of Vikings fans believe some variation of this: As long as Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings offense can be average this season, Minnesota — thanks to a strong defense — has a good chance to be a Super Bowl contender.

This isn't wrong so much as it is dangerous.

Incremental offensive progress for the Vikings in 2016 would be a step in the right direction. But in most cases, it wouldn't be enough to win a Super Bowl.

This is where the danger lies: In looking at the Broncos last year, or the 2000 Ravens or the 2002 Buccaneers — the three teams in the past 16 seasons that won it all with average (at best, sometimes) quarterback play — as proof that an average Vikings offense with Bridgewater operating primarily as a game manager would be good enough to deliver this franchise's first Super Bowl victory.

Those seasons did, indeed, happen. But they are the exceptions to the rule in terms of QB play. And good plans are not built around exceptions. Those Ravens, Buccaneers and Broncos teams also had historically great defenses — arguably ranking among the 10 best defenses in NFL history.

The Vikings were a very good defense last year, ranking 13th in yards allowed and fifth in points allowed. They are trending toward elite. Nobody would say they are one of the best in NFL history — at least not yet.

Here are the quarterbacks from the other 13 teams to win Super Bowls in the past 16 seasons: Tom Brady (four times), Ben Roethlisberger (twice), Eli Manning (twice), Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, elite-level Peyton Manning, Joe Flacco and Russell Wilson.

Roethlisberger is close and has a history of making big throws in clutch situations. Wilson is dynamic and also had the benefit of an all-time great defense. Eli Manning had 15 touchdown passes and two INTs combined in the Giants' two Super Bowl runs. Flacco had 11 touchdown passes, no interceptions and never had a passer rating below 106 in the Ravens' four-game run.

The Vikings clearly have built themselves around defense. The Vikings also wouldn't have taken a wide receiver with their first-round draft pick, or shaken up their offensive line (along with a new position coach) or added more offensive minds to the mix if they were content to be a one-dimensional team.

You can make a convincing argument that you don't need a top-five quarterback to win a Super Bowl. But recent history tells us that even if you have a good defense you are going to need a QB and an offense that can play at a high enough level to win you a playoff game (or two or three) instead of just not losing a game if you are going to make a Super Bowl run.

And if you don't, you'd better have one of the best defenses of all time.

Ideally, you'd get yourself a team that could do both. The Vikings haven't shown yet that they have either. Until they do, their route to the Super Bowl would be on a path not taken this millennium.