VikesCentric: AP turned 30, does that really matter?

On Saturday, Vikings running back Adrian Peterson celebrated his 30th birthday. What did you get him? A piece of your mind? A big 'ol slice of humble pie? Maybe you went big and wrote him a reality check? Whatever you did or (likely) didn't get him, the party went on without us. Complete with a 30 foot ice bar and a grand entrance on the back of an camel, Peterson turned the corner and became the dreaded running back over 30!

But what does that mean for his future with the Vikings? Does it make it more or less likely that he returns to the team? And is there really a precedent set for dramatically declining performance for RBs after their thirtieth birthday? Let's find out…

It's not like Adrian's 30th birthday surprised anybody. We knew it was coming and this weekend just served as the place mark. So it's unlikely that it will affect the odds that he gets traded or not. That said, there is a rare precedent set for running backs to be traded after their thirtieth birthday.

While many have swapped teams via free agency later in their careers, only one running back has been traded on the north side of their 30th birthday. On March 13th, 2014, 30-year old Darren Sproles was traded from the New Orleans Saints to the Philadelphia Eagles for a 5th round pick. Obviously the value at stake is a little different with Sproles, bringing the stakes down a bit and making the risk of a 30-year old back decline. Sproles had an average season for the Eagles on most counts but actually found the endzone rushing more last season (6 times) than any other year in his career.

It's different with AP though. On one hand we're talking about the best running back in the league, a guy who once ran for 2,000+ yards in one season. On the other, you have to look at an aging back, with a reconstructed knee and a year of sitting on the couch (sort of, but not really). If Adrian continues an attempt to impose his will upon the Vikings and he were to be traded for a 1st round pick, it wouldn't be crazy, but certainly unheard of.

So how about this idea that running backs hit s severe drop off after their 30th birthday, is it reality? Let's check out the career trajectory of a few running backs that Adrian has often been compared to through this point in his career, Emmitt Smith and Eric Dickerson.

Up until his 30th birthday, Dallas Cowboys running back Emmitt Smith turned 20 carries per game into just under 90 yards per game and nearly a touchdown per game (.91 per game). After his thirtieth birthday, those numbers dropped DRAMATICALLY to 67 yards per game and less than a half touchdown per game (.45 per game). In fairness to Emmitt, these numbers do include a heinous season with the Cardinals in 2003. Even with that season and his time in Arizona aside, Emmitt's final four seasons with the Cowboys saw a 25 yard per game drop and a decline of nearly a half touchdown per game less.

Admittedly, there is a lot that could go into this theory. By the time that most of these running backs turn 30, they have had high school, four years of college and 7 or so season of NFL wear and tear on their bodies. For Smith, it was nearly 2900 carries and Dickerson about 2400 by the time they turned 30. Roughly, that means there were about that many tackles as well. Your body breaks down, your body ages and naturally you begin to slow down.

Let's even go as far as saying that Adrian's physical body is actually that of a 29-year old (this based off of the ridiculous theory that because he didn't play in 2014 his body has some sort of saved energy ready to expend). Even then, Peterson already has three years of college and 2,000 professional snaps (tackles) of wear and tear on that body. And don't forget his running style. It's not nearly the shake and bake, avoid contact style that Dickerson and even Smith employed, nope, Adrian welcomes the contact sometimes he even initiates it.

So as you can see, there truly is some relevance to those shooting out warnings for teams that are interested in dishing over high round picks for a 30-year old running back. Still, it's likely that Peterson will be traded and likely that someone will overspend. After all, we've been told time and time again that Adrian is "a freak", "a specimen" and "not like those other backs."