EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY

HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY

WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions over multiple days. For the Excessive Heat Warning, heat index values up to 111 expected. For the Heat Advisory, heat index values up to 97 expected.

WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central and southeast Minnesota, and northwest and west central Wisconsin.

WHEN...For the Excessive Heat Warning, from 11 AM Tuesday to 10 PM CDT Wednesday. For the Heat Advisory, from 10 PM Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday.

IMPACTS...Extreme heat and humidity will significantly increase the potential for heat related illnesses, particularly for those working or participating in outdoor activities.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Multiple days of excessive heat may lower one`s tolerance of it. Overnight temperatures will only drop to the lower to middle 70s, providing little relief from the effects of the heat during the nighttime periods. The extreme heat may also lead to buckling roads.

DEATH VALLEY RECORD ALERT - Sunday (August 20, 2023), Death Valley National Park observed 2.20" of precipitation at the official gauge near Furnace Creek. This breaks the previous all time wettest day record of 1.70", which was set on August 5, 2022.

"The U.S. Geological Survey has reported a Magnitude 5.1 earthquake 7 km southeast of Ojai, California on Sunday. This report comes as Tropical Storm Hilary is moving through the region and producing extreme rainfall. Heavy rainfall will continue to be a problem for southern California and the Southwest through Sunday evening. Herein, I pose the question - "Is southern California earthquake linked to rainfall from the tropical storm? To be clear, I have absolutely no evidence to say "yes" to that question and to do so would be completely speculative. However, I thought that it would be informative to make you aware of scientific studies in the literature on the topic. A 2006 study published in Geophysical Research Letters was entitled, "Evidence for rainfall-triggered earthquake activity." They found that seismic activity was highly correlated with pore pressure changes associated with diffusing rainwater. The physics get a bit complicated, but there is discussion of rainwater channeling into open fractures and precipitation into a limited number of open fractures. These processes lead to hydraulic changes that could be linked to earthquakes."

See more from Forbes HERE:

Tropical Storm Franklin developed in the Caribbean on Sunday, which is now the 6th named storm of the 2023 season. Tropical Alerts have been issued for parts of Haiti and the Dominican in advance of Franklin as it lifts north.

Here's the forecast for Franklin, which shows the storm drifting over Haiti and the Dominican with gusty winds and heavy rainfall through midweek, where tropical alerts have been issued. Franklin will lift northeast into the Central Atlantic later in the week and potentially become a hurricane.

According to NOAA's NHC, there are several disturbances in the basin that we'll have to keep an eye on over the next several days. At one point on Monday, there were 3 tropical storms in progress simultaneously with Emily, Gert and Franklin.

Our recent uptick in the Atlantic tropical activity coincides with climatology, which suggests that things ramp up pretty quickly during the 2nd half of August and into September. This is when the sea surface temperatures are typically the warmest in the Atlantic Basin. Note that the actual peak of the season is on September 10th, which is less than 3 weeks away. With that being said, the next several weeks could be pretty active in the Tropics.

According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, it is going to be another very hot week with temperatures warming into the 90s a few days and possibly up to 100F midweek. Good grief! Note that our hottest temperature at the MSP Airport so far this year was 96F on July 27th, so we could certainly see our hottest day of the year this upcoming week.

Interestingly, it's pretty rare to see a 100F day in August. Since records started back in 1872, there have only been (7) 100F degree days, with the most recent happening back in 1988, which is 35 years ago.

The hottest day of 2023 (so far) was Thursday, July 27th with a high of 96F and heat index values peaking around 105F to 110F. Uffda! Through Saturday, August 19th, there had been (24) 90F days this year. It looks like we'll add a few more to that list this week.

Looking at the last 30 years, the average number of 90F days at the MSP Airport is (14). July is the hottest month with an average of (6) 90F days. This year we've had (23) 90F days, last year we had (18) days in the 90s and in 2021 there were (27) days in the 90s. The most number of 90F days in any single year was (44) set in 1988.

It has been very dry across much of the region so far this summer with only 5.79" of rain falling at the MSP Airport since June 1st. Interestingly, we're still -5.63" below average this summer, even with the +1.00" that fell in the metro on Sunday, August 13th. For reference, the driest on record was only 1.65" set in 1894. Interestingly, the summers of 2021 and 2022 were even drier.

On average, the wettest time of the year is in the summer, with the months of June, July and August seeing nearly 13" of rain at the MSP Airport. If we take a look at the 90 day precipitation anomaly, which dates back to about mid May, some locations are nearly -3.00" to nearly -7.00" below average (in red/pink). Note that some locations across southeastern Minnesota are nearly -8.00" to -10.00" below average.

After a decent, steady, soaking rain across parts of the state last weekend, there was a slight improvement in drought across parts of the state. Most categories dropped slightly, but there are still a few areas across southeastern Minnesota, that are in an Extreme Drought (in red). The last time that parts of Minnesota were in an Extreme Drought was back in mid December, nearly 8 months ago.

Thanks to some hot weather over the next several days, it appears that we'll stay mostly dry across much of the state through the week ahead. There could be a few areas of showers and storms across the northern part of the state with the heaviest of 0.50" or more along the international border.

The weather outlook for Minneapolis through the day Tuesday will be dangerously hot with temps warming into the mid/upper 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s. Heat indices will be in the 100s with southeasterly winds around 10mph to 15mph.

Temps on Tuesday will be pretty hot across the southern two-thirds of the state with readings running nearly +10F to +20F above average for mid August.

Record highs will be possible for some locations across in southern Minnesota and near the MN/IA border. The temps highlighted in yellow are the expected records for Tuesday.

Wednesday could see record highs across parts of southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities.

Temperatures in Minneapolis through the week ahead will get hot once again with readings nearly +15F to +20F above average Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. There is an outside chance that we hit 100F on Wednesday, which would only be the 8th time we've seen 100s at MSP during the month of August.

It'll be very humid as we head through midweek with readings in the low/mid 70s, which is considered tropical. We can not only thank a hot and humid airmass overhead, but you can also thank the local corn crop, which is helping to pump additional moisture into the atmosphere called "evapotranspiration". It'll get a little better later in the week with dewpoint readings falling to around 60.

It got quite sticky through the day Monday and it'll be very tropical through midweek with temps warming into the mid/upper 90s. Highs could reach record levels with heat indices in the 100s. It'll be quite a bit nicer this weekend with much cooler temps.

Thanks to a large dome of high pressure in the Central US, there won't be much rain over the next 5 to 7 days there. It'll be hot with widespread records, but most of the rain and thunder will be found on the outer periphery of this "ring of fire".

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows Warmer than average temperatures across much of the nation with the exception of the Northeast, where temps will remain cooler than average into the end of August and into early September.

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the Western US looks a little more unsettled across the Western US. Meanwhile, drier weather will settle in across the Central and Southern US.

A "heat dome", a sprawling mass of dry, sinking, super-heated air, will brush the southern half of Minnesota and southwest Wisconsin over the next 48 hours. And unlike Arizona, it won't be a dry heat.

Dew points in the 70s will make it feel like 105 to 110F by late afternoon; in the danger zone. With so much water in the air, your body can't cool itself effectively via evaporation of sweat off your skin. You can easily overheat, even if you're sufficiently hydrated. Take it extra easy out there later today and tomorrow.

The next chance of a T-storm comes Friday, as we start to cool off later in the week, with a noticeable drop in temperature and humidity by the weekend. Day 1 of the State Fair on Thursday will still be uncomfortably hot & sticky, but by Sunday it should be very comfortable for strolling and snacking.

TUESDAY: Sizzling. Feels like 108F. Winds: SW 10-20. High 97.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear, warm & quiet. Winds: ESE 5-10. Low: 79.

THURSDAY: Steamy State Fair. Only slight relief. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 75. High 92.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny, stray T-storm? Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 68. High 87.

SATURDAY: Sunny and more comfortable. Winds: NE 5-10. Wake-up: 64. High: 82.

SUNDAY: Blue sky, low humidity. Perfect. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 62. High: 83.

MONDAY: Another sunny, perfect day at the fair. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 65. High: 86.

1910: Daylight is dimmed in Duluth due to smoke from Rocky Mountain forest fires.

1870: Downpours across southern Minnesota produce 5 inches at Sibley, and 3.49 at Ft. Snelling. Much of the wheat crop is damaged.

August 22nd

Average High: 80F (Record: 97F set in 1898 & 1971)

Average Low: 62F (Record: 43F set in 1875 & 1890)

Record Snowfall: NONE

August 22nd

Sunrise: 6:23am

Sunset: 8:08pm

Hours of Daylight: ~13 hours & 45 minutes

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 1 Hour & 52 Minutes

1.1 days before Frist Quarter moon

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Temperatures on Tuesday will be extremely hot across the Central US with highs running nearly +5F to +15F above average. Widespread records will be found across the Central and Southern Plains and also down across parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile lingering heavy rains and gusty winds will impact parts of the Western US, where the remnants of Hilary will drift through.

The weather outlook on Tuesday will feature lingering showers and storms the Western US, where remnants of Hurricane Hilary will drift through. Meanwhile, the Central US will remain hot and dry with record heat.

The extended precipitation outlook looks pretty interesting over the next 7 days. This is a pretty typical setup for what is known as a "Ring of Fire", where areas of heavy rainfall develop on the outer periphery of the dome of extreme heat in the Central US.

"Telitha Solis keeps a towel in her pocket just to wipe the sweat off her face. She spends her workdays rushing from plane to plane on the hot tarmac in 100-degree temperatures at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport. The 56-year-old airplane cabin cleaner empties seat pockets, cleans lavatories, floors, galleys and wipes down tray tables in minutes. She said she cleans about 16 planes a day — sometimes with just one other person — with the air conditioning turned off and few opportunities for water breaks. "You are dripping in sweat," she said. "When you're inside the plane, you barely can breathe. It's better outside than it is inside the aircraft."

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"I don't think it's hyperbole to say Apple's Weather app is the most beautiful app the company has ever made. Its full-screen weather animation backdrops are nothing short of stunning. There have been times when I've spent an extra several seconds in the app simply gazing at the particulates flowing across my screen in the breezy animation or at the flakes every so gently falling in the snow animation. But unfortunately, that's where my love affair with Apple Weather ends. One of the reasons for this is that I've lost trust in the weather data the app is showing me. Sometimes the forecast is spot on, and sometimes it's so wildly off, it's comical. Then, of course, there are some small gripes I have with the way Weather displays data (accurate or not) and the fact that Apple Weather data has been unavailable for long stretches a lot this year, making it at times impossible to get current conditions. But let's look at these issues one at a time."

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