Unseasonably Mild Weather Into Thursday

Focus on the here and now: beautiful, postcard-worthy sunshine all week with a shot at 60s today and Thursday before waves of chilly air burble southward. Is this autumn's last hurrah? It sure looks like it. But it was nice while it lasted. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

November 14, 2023 at 3:30AM
Winter Weather (NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Winter Hazard Awareness Week in Minnesota and Wisconsin

November 13th through the 17th is Winter Hazard Awareness Week in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Each year, the National Weather Service, the Minnesota Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, and Wisconsin Emergency Management promote winter safety and preparedness for all citizens wherever they are: in their homes, on the road, at work and at play. Unfortunately, many people each year suffer needlessly because they are unaware of the potential dangers of the winter season. Winter safety information will be presented each day during the week of November 13th. The winter safety information will be separated into the 5 topics this week:

Monday, November 13th: Winter Storms

Tuesday, November 14th: Outdoor Winter Safety

Wednesday, November 15th: Winter Fire Safety

Thursday, November 16th: Indoor Air Quality in the Winter

Friday, November 17th: Winter Driving

MN DOT Snow Plow (MN DOT/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook This Week

The weather for the week ahead looks warm and mostly dry. A quick-moving storm system will scoot through the region later this week with gusty winds, but very little precipitation is expected. There will be a bit of a cooldown as we slide into the weekend.

Weather Outlook Through The Weekend (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Outlook

The extended precipitation outlook through early next week shows very little precipitation across the state. There could be a couple of tenths of an inch across the Southwestern part of the state, but most locations will stay mainly dry.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Warmer & Drier Start to November So Far

Despite being chillier than average earlier this month, temperatures have been quite a bit warmer than average as of late. That being said, the average temperature in the Twin Cities is nearly +2.5F above average with precipitation running more than -0.60" below average. There hasn't been any snowfall registered at the airport, which is nearly -2.0" below average.

Twin Cities November Summary (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities Average Snowfall

The 30-year average from 1993 to 2022 suggests that we typically see around 5.5" of snow during the month of November. The snowiest month tends to be in December with more than a foot falling. The 2nd snowiest month tends to be January with nearly 11" falling in the metro.

Twin Cities Average Snowfall (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Drought Update

Recent heavy rains since late September have helped the drought situation quite a bit in across the state. With that being said, nearly 18% of the state is still in a severe drought, which has improved from 34% nearly 3 months ago.

Minnesota Drought Update (US Drought Monitor/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Tuesday

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Tuesday, November 14th will be nearly +20F above average for this time of the year. SW winds will be very breezy with gusts approaching 40mph at times.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms For Minneapolis

Temperatures in Minneapolis will start in the mid 40s in the morning and will warm into the low/mid 60s by the afternoon under partly cloudy skies. Southwest winds will be very gusty with wind gusts approaching 40mph.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook For Tuesday

The weather outlook for Tuesday will be nearly +15F to +25F above average across the state under partly cloudy skies. Monday will feel more like early October than mid-November.

Weather Outlook For Tuesday (Preadictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows mild temperatures continuing through the week ahead with readings warming into the 50s and 60s, which will be nearly +10F to +20F above average for this time of the year. We'll cool off into the 40s as we approach the weekend, which will still be a little above average for this time of the year.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows very warm and October-like readings in place through the week ahead. It'll also be a mostly dry week with with cooler and breezier weather returning this upcoming weekend.

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

The Extended Outlook Calls For Warmer Temps

According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, temps will be quite a bit warmer than average as we continue through the middle part of the month. Readings could warm into the mid/upper 50s and low 60s, which will be well above average for that time of the year. Overnight lows could be in the 30s and 40s, which is above average for this time of the year. As we head into the 2nd half of the week, readings fall into the 30s with overnight lows in the 20s.

NBM Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Atlantic Hurricane Season Winding Down

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th. November is typically a very quiet month, but there can still be storms. In fact, last year, Hurricane Nicole made landfall along the east coast of Florida.

Atlantic Hurricane & Tropical Storm Climatology (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Atlantic Outlook

According to NOAA's NHC, there is a high chance of tropical formation in the Caribbean over the next 7 days. Regardless if this storm develops, areas of very heavy rainfall may be possible across parts of the northern Caribbean through the week ahead.

7 Day Atlantic Outlook (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook

Weather conditions across the Central US will be fairly quiet over the next several days with mostly dry weather in place through much of next week. As we get beyond the upcoming weekend, it looks like weather conditions could become more active across the Central US. Stay tuned!

National Weather Outlook Through The Weekend (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows Warmer than average temperatures across the Eastern US. Meanwhile, cooler than average temperatures will return to the Western two-thirds of the nation.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook shows more active weather in place across much of the Nation as we approach the middle part of the month and beyond.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Unseasonably Mild Weather Into Thursday
By Paul Douglas

Storms, given a choice, prefer to come on major holidays. When the weather is too nice (?) for too long my pangs of paranoia rise to the surface. The weather-balloon often pops right around Thanksgiving, give or take a few days.

AAA estimates a record 55 million Americans will be traveling for Thanksgiving this year, most of them driving. What can possibly go wrong?

The chance of slush has diminished for early next week, but there is little doubt an inevitable cold front of Canadian origin will sail into town in 1 week. 30s on Thanksgiving? Count on it.

ECMWF long-range ensemble models (a large group of models with slightly different initialization parameters) hints at accumulating snow the weekend AFTER Thanksgiving, but the confidence level is low. Stay tuned.

Focus on the here and now: beautiful, postcard-worthy sunshine all week with a shot at 60s today and Thursday before waves of chilly air burble southward. Is this autumn's last hurrah? It sure looks like it. But it was nice while it lasted.

Extended Forecast

TUESDAY: Sunny and windy. Winds: SW 20-40. High: 62.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Gradual clearing and breezy. Winds: SSW 15-30. Low: 42.

WEDNESDAY: Blue sky, less wind. Winds: N 7-12. High 57.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny, gusty winds. Winds: SW 15-35. Wake-up: 45. High 63.

FRIDAY: Sunny and seasonably cool. Winds: W 10-15. Wake-up: 32. High 43.

SATURDAY: Still sunny and pleasant. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 33. High 50.

SUNDAY: Fading sun, still quiet out there. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 34. High 48.

MONDAY: Storm may stay south. More clouds. Winds: NE 7-12. Wake-up: 32. High: 44.

This Day in Weather History

November 14th

2002: A magnitude 7.9 earthquake in Alaska turned some well water black in southeast Minnesota due to magnesium particles that were shaken loose.

1996: An ice storm moves through much of central and southern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin. Schools closed or began late over much of southern Minnesota the morning of the 15th due to a 1/2 inch thick layer of ice that covered much of the area. Flights were canceled at Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport due to ice forming on airplanes and runways, although mainly sleet was reported in the Twin Cities.

1833: A spectacular meteor shower is witnessed at Ft. Snelling.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

November 14th

Average High: 43F (Record: 71F set in 1990)

Average Low: 28F (Record: 0F set in 1919)

Record Rainfall: 0.80" set in 1926

Record Snowfall: 2.5" set in 1951 & 2022

Twin Cities Almanac For November 14th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

November 14th

Sunrise: 7:08am

Sunset: 4:45pm

Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 36 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: 2 Minutes & 25 Seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 6 Hour & 11 Minutes

Moon Phase for November 14th at Midnight

1.9 Days Since New Moon

Moon Phase For November 14th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps on Tuesday

The weather outlook across the Central US shows warmer than average temperatures in place across much of the Central and Western US. Meanwhile, cooler temps will linger across the Northeast. Areas of heavy rain will linger across the Southern US, where several inches of rain can't be ruled out.

National Weather Outlook For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook For Tuesday

The National Weather Outlook on Tuesday shows areas heavy rain continuing across the Coastal Bend of Texas, but much of the nation should be dry and quiet.

National Weather Map For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

The National Weather outlook through Wednesday shows areas of heavy rain continuing in the Deep South. Meanwhile, much of the rest of the nation will be quiet. There will be a bigger surge of precipitation along the West Coast with areas of heavy rain and high elevation snow.

National Weather Outlook Through Wednesday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

The extended precipitation outlook shows areas of heavier rain across the Southern US and decent precipitation along the West Coast. We will start seeing precipitation potential across the Central US as we get closer to the end of the month.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Snowfall Outlook

According to the ECMWF weather model, areas of snow will be found across the high elevations in the Western US. There will also be some decent snowfall along the international border and just north into Canada.

ECWMF Extended Snowfall Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Millions of homes are being built in fire-prone grasslands"

"Homes built in areas with grasslands and shrublands face a greater risk of fire as development expands and the effects of climate change intensify. However, a new report published Thursday finds that the number of homes inside widening wildfire perimeters have doubled since the 1990s. According to researchers, of the 55,000 homes that burned between 2010 and 2022, two-thirds burned in grassland and shrubland fires. But according to Volker Radeloff, professor of forest life and ecology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and co-author of the paper, while climate change and drought play a major role, the expansion of housing developments on the outskirts of urban areas are driving risk: Between 1990 and 2020, nearly 44 million homes were built in these wildland-urban interface areas."

"New analysis finds strong El Niño could bring extra floods this winter"

"An analysis by NASA's sea level change science team finds that if a strong El Niño develops this winter, cities along the western coasts of the Americas could see an increase in the frequency of high-tide flooding that can swamp roads and spill into low-lying buildings. El Niño is a periodic climate phenomenon characterized by higher-than-normal sea levels and warmer-than-average ocean temperatures along the equatorial Pacific. These conditions can spread poleward along the western coasts of the Americas. El Niño, which is still developing this year, can bring more rain than usual to the U.S. Southwest and drought to countries in the western Pacific like Indonesia. These impacts typically occur in January through March."

"The past 12 months were the hottest ever on record"

"The 12 months between November 2022 and October 2023 saw global average temperatures rise 1.32°C above the preindustrial average – that is 0.03°C above the previous record set between October 2015 and September 2016. "This is the hottest temperature our planet has experienced in something like 125,000 years," says Andrew Pershing at Climate Central, a climate science nonprofit in the US. Pershing and his colleagues based their analysis on surface temperature data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. They found that the main driver of the heat was global warming due to rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Attributing the exact amount of warming to different factors is challenging, but Friederike Otto at Imperial College London says about 1.28°C of the rise in average temperatures can be attributed to climate change."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
about the writer

about the writer

Todd Nelson

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