It's a statistic that you've probably heard recently: Prior to the All-Star break, Twins second baseman Brian Dozier piled up 18 home runs, leading to an appearance in the Derby at Target Field. Since then, he has hit a total of two.
For some, this is a worrisome development, indicative that perhaps Dozier is not the long-term cog that many of us hoped he could be. For me, however, the 27-year-old's post-break production is actually rather encouraging. Allow me to explain.
First, let's get this out there: It was never terribly realistic to believe that Dozier was going to keep hitting the ball out of the park at the frantic rate he established during the first three-plus months. In 2013, he launched 18 homers, surpassing his career total in the minors, and this year he matched that number in just over half a season.
Clearly he has made some strides and developed considerably as a power hitter, but based on his history and his swing, the odds that he was going to be an annual source for 30-40 home runs were slim to nil. Some regression in the HR category was inevitable.
Granted, the regression has been more drastic than we would have expected or hoped. But for the most part, the rest of Dozier's strong offensive game has remained intact. Here's a more broad view of his splits:
Before All-Star break: 424 PA, .242/.340/.436, 16 2B, 0 3B, 18 HR, 79/52 K/BB
Since All-Star break: 234 PA, .227/.348/.340, 16 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 39/33 K/BB
Although Dozier has clearly been scuffling from a pure power standpoint, he is still getting on base, still showing excellent plate discipline and still hitting a bunch of doubles. Let's face it, as nice as the long balls were, these are the most important aspects of his game when you consider his role as a top-of-the-lineup table setter.
