Of course, there are a lot of variables that go into a team's ability to generate runs that extend just beyond the first two hitters. For example, while the Rays were able to set their table extremely well, the team's bottom of the order, spots seven through nine, hit a paltry .216/.219/.330 throughout the season. This top heavy production likely cost Tampa some runs over the year. On the other hand, the Detroit Tigers had the opposite effect. Their top of the order, starting with Austin Jackson, had a difficult time getting on base. Instead of getting runners on from the top of the lineup, the middle of Detroit's order – hitter's three through six – mashed to the tune of .305/.369/.482. This led to 787 runs, the fourth-highest in the American League last year. With the exception of those outliers, a team's offense and their performance at the top of the order is fairly intertwined.
Obviously, a team like the Red Sox, Yankees and Rangers have consistent lineup from top to bottom while teams like the Orioles, A's and Mariners had holes everywhere. A team bursting with hitting is likely going to score more runs. In many ways, the Twins were no different from those bottom-feeding clubs. Injuries diluted the lineup so much it became as potent as a watered-down liquor bottle in the cabinet of a high school kid's parents' house.
Even with a thin lineup, the 2011 Twins top of the order lacked any means to jumpstart the offense. Denard Span started the season off well but the concussion greatly reduced his production before he was sidelined. His replacement, Ben Revere, was learning on the job and posted a .310 on-base percentage – a very lackluster rate for a leadoff man. In the two-spot, Alexi Casilla posted a .322 on-base percentage but he too was injured and the spot in the order was given most often to Trevor Plouffe, who had a .305 on-base percentage. So even with the dilapidated lineup in the season's second-half the Twins did not provide the middle-of-the-order much of an opportunity to drive in runs.
It is clear that if the team wants to compete in 2011, they need to score runs. With Joe Mauer claiming to be in excellent physical condition this spring and Josh Willingham entering into the picture, the heart of the order should be at the very least incrementally strong than it was a year ago. The trick is having a pair of hitters that can be on base for the big sticks to do their work.
While he admits there have been some good days and bad days when it comes to his recovery, for now, there is optimism that Span is ready to go. An owner of a career .361 on-base percentage, when he has been healthy, he's been one of the game's best lead-off hitters. Even though he has had a down year in 2010, he appeared to be on the path to a rebound season in 2011: Prior to his collision with Royals catcher Brayan Pena, he was holding an OBP north of his current career rate.
