If the Twins' pursuit of Carlos Correa was full of nuance and ultimately contradictions, so too can be the lens through which we view the aftermath of Correa's decision to sign with the Giants.
Five questions for Twins management, including this big one: What's your plan now?
After missing out on shortstop Carlos Correa, it sounds as though the Twins will only be minor players in free agency. If that's the case, they have a lot of work to do to win games — and win over fans — in 2023.
December 15, 2022 at 11:37PM
The Twins seemed both all-in on Correa and not willing to go any further than a set term. They appeared poised to commit close to $30 million to one player in free agency but unwilling (or unable) to spend similarly on other players.
As Jim Souhan reported following a conversation with Twins Chief Baseball Officer Derek Falvey, the Twins' final offer was 10 years, $285 million. The Giants went to 13 years, $350 million and that was that.
Signing Correa to either of those deals might have impacted the Twins' ability to contend in future years, and I'm of the mind that he wasn't worth either deal.
But with that said, there is now a sobering reality that life without Correa will make it very difficult to contend in 2023 — and that an offseason plan missing its centerpiece looks startlingly incomplete, as I talked about on Thursday's Daily Delivery podcast.
As such, here are five Twins questions — all of them more or less offshoots of the big one: What's the plan now?
- Why not match the Giants' offer? In terms of total yearly value, the Giants outbid the Twins by between $5 million and $6.5 million per year (depending on whether we divide by 10 or 13 years). If you really were in on Correa and nobody else, why draw a line in the sand where the Twins did? Even if you think his eventual deal was ludicrous and not worth it (which I do), it wasn't that far off of from where the Twins stopped.
- Why not take a different big swing? Perhaps the most disappointing element of the aftermath is that it sounds like Carlos Rodon is not on the Twins' radar — and that any big moves the rest of the offseason are likely to be trades. Even if we acknowledge the unique bargaining position the Twins had with Correa relative to other big-name free agents, it's strange to think he seemed to be their only real target. It's akin to only eating the most expensive meal possible, or else starving (or shopping at Dior vs. buying nothing, to extend the Correa analogy).
- Why is Sonny Gray being mentioned as a trade chip? If the Twins are looking to upgrade their starting pitching this offseason, as it is being reported, it is baffling that their best starter from 2022 is being mentioned as a trade candidate. Maybe the fit is bad and Gray doesn't like being pulled from games? Maybe the Twins would rather add a lefty? I don't know, but Gray had a 3.08 ERA and strong peripheral numbers last year. He's a middle-to-top of the rotation starter.
- Where is the offense going to come from, especially if Luis Arraez is a trade chip? The Twins have already lost two of their most professional hitters (Gio Urshela and Correa) from a lineup full of holes. If they decide Arraez — the 2022 AL batting champion — is their best chance to upgrade the pitching staff, it raises even more concerns about the lineup. Even with Arraez, this feels like a bottom-half of the AL lineup as it stands now.
- How much do optics matter? The Twins genuinely believed they had a good chance to keep Correa, and that message ultimately set them up to fail with fans. It's a long offseason, with plenty of chances still to upgrade the roster in the next few months, but if the Twins go into 2023 with a lower-than-expected payroll and a team-in-transition feel, an already disappointed fan base is going to have even more reasons to tune out.
When he was hired after the disastrous 2016 season to reshape the Twins, Derek Falvey brought a reputation for identifying and developing pitching talent. It took a while, but the pipeline we were promised is now materializing.
