Twins' projections on Max Kepler are paying off

FORT MYERS, Fla. – Terry Ryan remembers watching Max Kepler report to Twins camp every day, back when he first signed a contract. "He looked like a freshman at South Fort Myers [High]," located across Plantation Road from the team's headquarters, the Twins general manager said. "He'd walk across the street with his backpack on. [I'd think,] who's this guy?"

He knows now: At 22, Kepler is one of the franchise's top prospects, maybe one of the best in the sport. And if he turns into the run producer and elite outfielder that so many experts expect to see soon in the major leagues, he'll be something else: a monument to professional scouting.

Kepler was first noticed by Twins scout Andy Johnson when he was 14, at a baseball academy 7,000 miles from Target Field — which hadn't been built at the time. He signed a professional contract in 2009, at the age of 16, scrawny and gangly and inexperienced and, oh yes, German. The Twins gave Kepler $775,000 because they were confident that he would eventually grow and add muscle and improve at the plate and get faster and learn a sport he had played only a few years.

Millions of kids play sports every year. Scouts zero in on which ones will be the best years in the future. They chose Kepler.

"That's what those guys do — they project," said Ryan, a member of the Professional Baseball Scouts Hall of Fame. "We all had that assignment, going down and looking at a 15- or 16-year-old and using your imagination."

In Kepler's case, they didn't have much real competition to watch, given the level of baseball in Germany, so they used other metrics. "He looked like he belonged. He had a good swing. He was a tennis player, he loved soccer, he could do a lot of things besides just play the game of baseball. He was a well-rounded athlete," Ryan said. "He needed to grow up and he did."

It has been nearly seven years since Kepler signed, and for much of that time, you needed that imagination to see a future big-leaguer. He spent a season in instructional league, playing ball in the afternoon after attending classes across the street to finish high school. Then came two years in rookie ball. By the end of five seasons, the Berlin native had advanced only to Class A.

At his own pace, Kepler is finally fulfilling those projections. At Class AA Chattanooga, he was the 2015 Player of the Year in the Southern League after he drove in 71 runs, posted a .416 on-base percentage and, rare for a youngster, walked more often than he struck out.

Now he's in Twins camp, and a curious thing has happened: Opening Day is less than two weeks away, the roster has been scrubbed of the most obvious players in need of additional experience in the minor leagues — and Kepler remains in the major league clubhouse. No, he's not expected to survive another round of cuts; he's still penciled in as the starting center fielder at Class AAA Rochester.

But Ryan and manager Paul Molitor are relishing the sight of Kepler soaking up knowledge and offering glimpses of his raw talent too much to send him on his way.

"I like watching Max play. He's learning up here," Molitor said. "We've kept him around because that's one position [center field] we haven't really cemented in. [I'm] trying to get him as much experience in camp as I can, to see where he's at."

Kepler is only 6-for-25 this spring, and he hasn't recorded an extra-base hit. But Molitor is impressed anyway, saying: "He's still learning the game. Little things showing up that suggest to me that he might need to continue to play down below. But skill-wise, his ability to put a good swing on the ball, righthanded, lefthanded, it's been pretty good."

"I feel a little more confident, more aggressive. When I was younger, I went up there, like every young player, just to hack. Now I'm patient," he said. "I'm a different player now, but I know the Twins will let me know when I'm ready."