Making predictions of any sort leaves the forecaster vulnerable to having old takes exposed when things don't go according to projection.
Just a year ago, for instance, many of us thought the Twins were in good enough shape to win a third consecutive AL Central title — maybe not 101-win, Bomba Squad dominant like 2019, but better than the rest.
Baseball Prospectus was among that optimistic group, projecting 91 wins and a division title for the Twins.
Instead, of course, just about everything that could go wrong — from injuries throughout the lineup to underperformance by key pitchers — did go wrong. The Twins were basically out of the competitive mix by mid-July, traded mainstays like Nelson Cruz and Jose Berrios, and played out the rest of a 73-89 season that was bad enough for last instead of first in the AL Central.
A logical guess as to how the 2022 season will go might be ... more of the same? Vegas Insider has the Twins' over-under win total at 75.5, and that feels about right in a season that seems like it's more about gaining information and getting organized than competing in a meaningful way.
But as I talked about on Wednesday's Daily Delivery podcast, there is one outlier that sees a much brighter next six months for the Twins than most.
Baseball Prospectus, in those same annual PECOTA projections that predicted a 91-win season for the Twins a year ago, has Minnesota winning 84 games this season and basically having a coin flip chance at making the postseason in the expanded 12-team field (six in each league).
Perhaps the most stunning thing: BP sees the Twins getting to 84 wins mainly with run prevention — allowing a projected 679 runs, the fourth-fewest in all of MLB. That includes a projected 2.92 ERA in 143 innings for Joe Ryan, who has made five career starts, and generally favorable projections for Dylan Bundy and Bailey Ober as well.
