Twins' leaders have good reason for confidence in 2016

BALTIMORE – In his previous stint as their general manager, Terry Ryan took the Twins to the playoffs in four of five seasons between 2002 and 2006.

Paul Molitor won 83 games in his first year as a manager, improving the Twins' record by 13 games, and was a World Series MVP.

Brian Dozier made his first All-Star team last year and studied Torii Hunter's competitive comportment as his locker neighbor.

They are the leaders of the Twins' front office, field staff and clubhouse. All have experienced success. None is known for outrageous predictions. Sunday in Baltimore, as the Twins prepared for Monday's season opener, all three found different ways to suggest the 2016 edition of the Twins has the talent and mental toughness to make the playoffs this season.

"I base it on a combination of character and ability," Molitor said. "We're well-suited for both. It's a good combination when you have people who know how to play and have shown the ability to apply that ability, and then you add character, which comes into play as you come to face things along the way, including adversity. …

"I don't like to throw things out there to plant seeds or light fires, but I think everyone here views it that we have a chance to do very well. In contrast to what a lot of people think."

Many statistical analysts see the Twins' 83 victories last season as an aberration not supported by advanced metrics. Ryan said he can't discount such evaluations because they are based "on history, and history is important."

"We had an excellent spring," Ryan said. "Everything you were hoping to accomplish. … We won our fair share of games, which was important to everyone involved. Maybe the most important thing is the tone has been set.

"We feel good about this club. We feel like we have the ability to compete for a division title."

Where do you think the Twins will finish this season? Vote here

Perhaps the only prominent negative development of the spring was the demotion of Tyler Duffey to Class AAA, but that may not be crucial. He wound up competing for the fifth spot in the rotation, which is a spot-starting job in April. He may be better off pitching in the minors early in the season. And if he doesn't pitch well there, the team's top pitching prospect, Jose Berrios, quickly could pass him on the team's depth chart.

"There's no question we feel pretty good about the depth that we have in this organization," Ryan said.

"If you watch the way people carry themselves — I wouldn't call it swagger or any of those things — I think we have a confident group here. I've tried to make it clear to them, especially early in camp, about what our challenge is, about trying to find a way to do more than we did. If we do more, we have a good chance to extend our season."

The best reason for optimism is that many of the Twins' best players last season didn't perform, or perform well, for more than a few months. Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Kevin Jepsen arrived during the season. Ervin Santana was suspended for half a season. Phil Hughes and Glen Perkins were injured for long, important stretches. Eduardo Escobar had to win the shortstop job. Dozier slumped badly in the second half.

There is room for growth here, as much room as you would find if you put Rosario in Sano's jersey.

"I'm not just saying this — I really do feel good going into the season," Dozier said. "I feel that we're all expecting to be pretty dang good.

"There's always hype, but this year feels different. The playoffs is goal number 1."

I'm picking the Twins to win 87 games this year, about 10 more than most national analysts. I get the sense that Ryan, Molitor and Dozier might find that prediction a bit meek.

Jim Souhan's podcast can be heard at MalePatternPodcasts.com. On Twitter: @SouhanStrib. jsouhan@startribune.com