Twin Cities Rain Through Midday Saturday - A Inch Or Two Of Snow North Of The Metro

The latest Drought Monitor was released on Thursday, and the main change vs. last week is an increase in the amount of the state in at least abnormally dry conditions. This category now covers almost the entire state (98.34%).

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Forecast loop from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM Saturday.

A system will continue to impact the state as we head through Friday Night and the first half of Saturday. As we head through the overnight hours into early Saturday, the rain/snow line will make it as far south as Worthington to St. Cloud to Duluth, with rain falling mainly south/east of that, including the metro. Several hours of snow across central Minnesota overnight will likely lead to snow accumulation.

The main thing everyone wants to know: where - and how much - snow? The greatest totals - somewhere in the 1-2" range, will fall from the Brainerd Lakes area to Duluth and the southern higher elevations of the North Shore. Some light snow might try to make it into the north/west metro, but any accumulation would be light.

Overall liquid amounts (rain and/or melted snow) are expected to approach 1" in the Twin Ports, with rain amounts approaching three-quarters of an inch in the metro.

Rain continues in the metro Saturday morning, tapering off as we head toward the midday hours. While an isolated shower will still be possible later in the day, the rest of Saturday looks to be cloudy. Temperatures will hover between the mid-30s and low 40s throughout the day.

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Sunday: A much drier day is expected Sunday in the metro with periods of clouds and sunshine. Highs will be in the upper 30s. Winds will change to be out of the northwest gusting to 30 mph in the afternoon. This could help bring in a few light snow showers or flurries to the state Sunday Night, but any accumulation generally looks light at the moment.

Monday: A few morning clouds will be around as we watch that chance of a few flurries Sunday Night/early Monday. Otherwise, the skies will quickly clear out. We'll be chilly with highs only in the mid/upper 20s and northwest winds gusting to 30 mph.

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Highs will generally be in the 30s and 40s for highs through at least Christmas - if not through the New Year - here in the metro. The only exception I see to that at this very moment is a batch of colder air moving in for Monday that a) could bring a few snow flurries or snow showers Sunday Night into early Monday and b) highs on Monday that only reach the mid/upper 20s. Other than that, a quiet weather pattern continues through much of next week as systems stay to our south.

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2023 May Be The 3rd Warmest Year On Record
By Paul Douglas

Welcome to March! We had a little rain overnight, central Minnesota waking up to slush. Birds will be chirping any moment now. Paul, break the tablet in half. On paper, in theory, it's still winter. Right?

Wednesday's 52F high in the metro was amazing. Friends were golfing. I saw a guy in St. Paul mowing his lawn. December has been more like late October and I'm all for creature comforts. But all this additional warmth close to the Winter Solstice isn't a great omen for the planet. It's El Nino AND a rapidly warming climate, working in tandem.

Temperatures above 32F in the lowest mile of the atmosphere prevented a March-like slush event for the metro, but drive 1-2 hours north/west of the metro and you should see a few inches of "snow". We dry out today and Monday will actually feel like December with highs in the 20s. More light rain arrives Thursday and ECMWF predicts a high of 43F on Christmas Eve. Given time it will snow again in the metro, but no time soon. 2023: the 3rd warmest year on record?

Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SATURDAY: MSP rain. Slush north/west. Wake up 35. High 41. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind SE 8-13 mph.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy, cooler. Wake up 33. High 38. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

MONDAY: Sunny, feels like December again. Wake up 19. High 28. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 10-15 mph.

TUESDAY: Blue sky, not as chilly. Wake up 23. High 41. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SW 8-13 mph.

THURSDAY: Rain. It's OK. Santa has reindeer. Wake up 32. High 37. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind SE 7-12 mph.

FRIDAY: Showers taper, clouds linger. Wake up 34. High 39. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind NE 5-10 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
December 16th

*Length Of Day: 8 hours, 47 minutes, and 20 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: 0 minutes and 28 seconds

This Day in Weather History
December 16th

2000: A surface low pressure system tracks east-northeast through Iowa on the 18th and then into western Illinois during the early evening hours. Extreme south central and southeast Minnesota received 6 to 10 inches of snow, including Albert Lea with 10.5 inches, Kiester and Bixby with 6.0 inches.

1972: Fairmont has its fifteenth consecutive day with lows at or below zero degrees Fahrenheit.

1940: A snowstorm hits much of Minnesota. Water equivalent of the snow was 1.27 inches at Winona.

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The heaviest rain through the weekend will be across the Southeast with that area of low pressure scooting through/near the region, bringing the potential of 3-5"+ of rainfall.

A couple of inches of snow will be possible through the weekend across portions of the Upper Midwest. Otherwise, most of the nation is quiet snow-wise.

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NOAA "virtually certain" 2023 will be the warmest year on record

More from Axios: "With November ranking as the warmest such month on record, NOAA is projecting greater than 99.5% odds that this year will be the world's warmest since instrument records began in the 19th century. Why it matters: The record, a result of both human-caused climate change and an El Niño event in the tropical Pacific, demonstrates how quickly and significantly the world is heating up. Climate change is having increasingly devastating and costly impacts worldwide, from wildfires to extreme heat and flooding rains. This year saw a lengthy stretch when global average temperatures were estimated to reach or exceed 1.5°C, a key target under the Paris Agreement on climate change. If the Earth warms above this level, studies show far more devastating consequences of climate change, such as collapsing ice sheets, are more likely to occur."

More from Canary Media: "This has been a record-shattering year for U.S. solar power. When 2023 comes to a close, nearly 33 gigawatts of solar capacity will have been installed across the country, according to the forecasts in the latest Solar Market Insights report from the Solar Energy Industries Association and Wood Mackenzie. That's a significant leap from the 21 gigawatts installed in 2022 and the largest annual addition of solar in the nation's history. Solar is the fastest-growing source of electricity in the U.S., making up almost half of all new power capacity in the first three quarters of 2023. Thanks to this rapid expansion, the U.S. now has about 161 gigawatts of solar installed — enough to generate just about 5 percent of the country's electricity. More than half of that capacity has been installed since 2020."

Moving South, Black Americans Are Weathering Climate Change

More from Capital B: "Over the past decade, Texas and Florida, two states known for hurricanes and extreme heat waves – but mild winters – have seen the most new residents as roughly a third of relocating Americans say "better weather" is the reason for their moves. The South has reaped these benefits: By 2030, the region is expected to be America's most populated for the first time. The trend underscores two decades of transformation dubbed the "Reverse Migration," where the descendants of Black migrants who moved to the North and Midwest between 1915 and 1970 are moving back to the South, the only region with more Black people migrating in than out since 2000. For Black folks, this presents a unique set of considerations — and challenges. It seems that in the attempt to escape the environmental racism and the poor health outcomes of the North and Midwest, Black people are essentially moving toward the epicenter of climate disasters, says Rhiana Gunn-Wright, the director of climate policy at the Roosevelt Institute."

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- D.J. Kayser