Trump's appeal may finally be ebbing

It's tempting to jump on sweeping narratives that explain election results. That's convenient but can lead to disastrous results similar to the widespread "red wave" predictions that took on the aura of conventional wisdom just before voters flipped the script.

That said, and without overinterpreting the results, there are a few broad trend lines we can take from this election. One is that ex-President Donald Trump may not be a spent force just yet, but there are growing signs that he at long last may be wearing out his welcome.

Resentment has been building for months among some top Republican officials, operatives and donors who have chafed at the poor-quality candidates Trump forced onto the party. As always, he was more impressed by fealty and celebrity than by intelligence, competence or political skills. Hence, Mehmet Oz, the TV doctor from New Jersey whom Trump recruited for the Pennsylvania Senate race.

Trump also continues to suck up money, air time and headlines even when it is to his party's detriment. Florida Republicans were fuming that Trump chose the last weeks of Gov. Ron DeSantis' re-election race to go to war with DeSantis over the possibility he might become a rival for the nomination in 2024. Trump's presence and endorsement is no longer as sought after as it once was.

Minnesota could be a case in point. In 2016, Trump came within 1.5 percentage points of beating Hillary Clinton in a state that hadn't gone red in a presidential election since Richard Nixon. By 2020, he lagged behind Joe Biden significantly, with Biden besting Trump by more than 7 percentage points.

Fast-forward to the 2022 midterms. Trump, out of the blue, offered Republican gubernatorial candidate Scott Jensen "my complete and total endorsement" in the closing days of the election. Jensen responded with a tepid statement that said, "I expect many individuals and organizations to ride the momentum and endorse our campaign." He made a point of noting he had not sought Trump's imprimatur. Trump, who had visited the state repeatedly in 2016 and 2020, never appeared in Minnesota in this election cycle, though he also endorsed GOP Secretary of State candidate Kim Crockett, who also lost.

Larry Jacobs, political observer and director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota's Humphrey School, told an editorial writer that "it's too soon to say the Trump era is over," but he said it may be waning.

Jacobs said that while Trump's bond with primary voters has proved "extraordinary and durable," it is based to a large degree on the politics of grievance and victimhood that largely feature his continued lies about a stolen election.

"If you are a Republican who wants to win in the next election cycle, Trump doesn't make political sense at the moment," Jacobs said. "His downsides are much more significant than his upsides." Trump is disliked intensely by about 40% of the electorate, Jacobs said. "His relationships with other Republicans are strained or broken. And that matters if you want to build a national campaign. More Republicans are starting to view him as a risk to their own futures."

Should Trump declare his candidacy, Jacobs said, "he won't be able to prevail" in a general election. It is to be hoped that the electorate has matured a bit since it embraced the renegade candidacy of one who pays little heed to rules, conventions and democratic institutions and who is consumed by his own self-interest.

Whether that also spells the end of Trumpism is a different calculation. Jensen, while in the Legislature, had developed a reputation as a moderate and a bit of a John McCain-style maverick, unafraid to break with his party on, say, gun violence or insulin pricing. Then, Jacobs said, he appeared give himself over completely to more abrasive, make-no-apologies, Trumpier style that included skepticism of COVID vaccines and other protective measures against the disease, and fear-mongering on crime and inflation.

"He couldn't get off that track," Jacobs said. "It just took over his political persona."