President-elect Donald Trump has repeatedly promised voters that he will repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act. Now he and his congressional allies have an obligation to fulfill that promise.
Despite some hysterical claims to the contrary, Congress isn't going to throw millions of Americans out of coverage. Under Obamacare, most newly insured people have been enrolled in Medicaid, a welfare program, while the bulk of those covered in the troubled exchanges are getting generous taxpayer subsidies. Thus far, at least, congressional leaders appear focused on avoiding further disruption and securing a smooth transition, particularly for those enrolled in the exchanges and Medicaid.
Meanwhile, there is another, more pressing, problem. There are more than 10 million people in the individual market who get no ACA taxpayer subsidies for their insurance yet are being hit with staggering premium increases.
Moreover, there are also approximately 15 million Americans in the small group markets — small-business employers and employees — who are likewise facing escalating premiums.
In the Obamacare exchanges, the average increase in the benchmark plan premium will be 25 percent for 2017 in the 39 states using the HealthCare.gov platform, and the exchange deductibles are positively breathtaking. For plans with the lowest premium costs, the so-called bronze plans, the average deductible for single coverage is $6,000 annually, while family coverage climbs to more than $12,000.
Premium subsidies aren't available for many in the middle class. A single person making more than $47,000 is out of luck for help in offsetting her premium costs. And if she makes roughly $15 an hour, she will likely be ineligible for cost-sharing subsidies.
Trump and Congress are inheriting unstable insurance markets. In droves, millions of Americans who were expected to sign up in the exchanges have not; middle-class folks, especially young folks, clearly don't see much value in high-priced insurance with crazy deductibles.
So a larger proportion of older and sicker people, whose claims costs are often higher than their premium contributions, are driving costs higher. And the individual mandate penalty, which is riddled with exemptions, isn't much of an incentive to buy Obamacare coverage.