While Otto will gradually weaken over the open waters of the centralAtlantic during the next couple of days, the southwestern Caribbean is beingmonitored as a possible breeding ground for more tropical development.An area of low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean has recently grabbed theattention of the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center. The waters this low ischurning over are sufficiently warm enough to support tropical development.
The main hinderance to the low at this time is moderate wind shear (strongwinds high in the atmosphere) on its western flank. That wind shear shouldlessen later this weekend, giving the low an opportunity to become betterorganized.
The next obstacle for the low will be Central America. It is possible that thelow moves into Nicaragua or Honduras before ever becoming a tropicaldepression. Even if the low achieves tropical depression status, that movementinto land would limit any further strengthening.
Regardless of its status, a path into Central American would result intorrential rainfall as well as flooding and mudslide concerns.
The low could continue to gradually gain strength if it just skirts the CentralAmerican coastline, then heads toward Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.
A few computer models are also hinting that the low will track more to thenorth toward Cuba in the upcoming days. This track would put the low in theenvironment most conducive for significant intensification.
Even if the low heads more northward and seems to have the United States in itssights, residents along the Gulf Coast can breathe a sigh of relief. Disruptivewind shear will rip apart any organized tropical system that enters the Gulf ofMexico.
However, there is concern that the belt of disruptive wind shear will pushslightly to the north and not offer protection to South Florida.
Since the exact path and forecast strength of the low is far from set in stone,all residents in Central America, Cuba and South Florida should monitor thelow's progress in the upcoming days.
Story by AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski