Tropical Development in June

Early in the hurricane season, storms are more likely to form in theCaribbean and Gulf of Mexico than well out in the Atlantic. The reason is thatsea-surface temperatures through the central and eastern Atlantic are not yetwarm enough to support tropical development. In order to get a full-fledgedhurricane, sea-surface temperatures must be at least 80 degrees. Another factoris that the mid-latitude westerlies are still strong enough to penetrate thetropics which is a great hinderance to tropical systems. The period frommid-August through early October is when the tropics fully ripen and hurricanescan occur anywhere in the Atlantic Basin.Wednesday's satellite picture reveals a tropical wave in the Caribbean south ofthe Dominican Republic and Haiti. This disturbance will drift toward thewest-northwest the next few days and could be a named storm by the time itreaches the Gulf of Mexico Sunday. There might be a little wind oppositionalong its path, but there is certainly no shorter of heat energy.

Whether or not this system will have any significant impact on the oil spillwill be our primary focus in the days ahead.

Story by AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist John Kocet.