Tropical Cyclone Threat to Northern Australia

Even as Carlos continues to inundate Darwin, a new tropical cyclone, dubbedDianne, has taken shape off northwestern Australia, from whence it willeventually threaten the nation's west with damaging winds and flooding rain.Wednesday morning, EST, the center of T.C. Dianne lay about 300 miles northwestof Learmonth, near Cape North West, Western Australia. Highest sustained windswere at least 40 mph. The storm was nearly stationary.

Satellite image shows T.C. Dianne off NWAustralia, Feb. 16, 2011 (Australia Bureau of Meteorology).The atmospheric setting will favor intensification, even rapidly so, during thenext two days, so Dianne could become the equivalent of a strong hurricane.

Storm movement will become southward, maybe on a path intersecting the westcoast of Australia near the end of the week.

Direct high wind impact will be confined to open seas for at least the next twodays. However, moisture linked to Dianne will trigger local flooding downpoursover far-western Australia, most of which is sparsely settled desert.

Depending on track, Dianne could eventually spark an outbreak of widespreadflooding rain and evendamaging winds.