Tropical low pressure, possibly a tropical cyclone, will barrel across thenorthern Bay of Bengal to the northern east coast of India Friday, bringingwith it potential for flooding rain and damaging wind.As of early Thursday, broad low pressure, marked by a swath of showers andthunderstorms, was centered about 300 miles south of Calcutta. Winds weregusty, but below tropical storm strength.
The low is on track to reach the Indian coast in the state of Orissa duringFriday morning, EDT. Potential exists for this storm to spin up before makinglandfall and thus to reach land as a named tropical cyclone.
The greatest risk of destructive wind and storm tide, as well as flooding rain,will be found along the Orissa and northeasternmost Andhra Pradesh coasts.
The rain impact to agriculture could be more far-reaching given the likelywestward track of this weather system into central India.
Any cyclone-related heavy rain would disrupt the harvest wherever it is stillunder way. Unusually late withdrawal of the rainy summer monsoon has alreadydelayed the harvest in some areas.
Moreover, fall sowing of a number of crops, which normally follows monsoonrain, has begun in central and northern India. Penetration of cyclone rain asfar north and west as the key growing areas of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradeshwould be adverse to the sowing effort.
October is the month of the year most likely to have a tropical cyclone overthe Bay of Bengal. Eastern India and Bangladesh have storm landfalls in manyyears. Sometimes, these landfalls bring devastating winds and storm tides, aswell as flooding rain.
Story by Jim Andrews, Senior Forecaster.
