The Twins will try to acquire a pitcher by the trading deadline Tuesday afternoon. Odds are against them making a major deal, because …
- Most of the players who would bring value in the trade market are injured or helping the big league team. It would be foolish to trade Royce Lewis or Jose Miranda. Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Max Kepler and Miguel Sano are injured, and a few of their top prospects — including Austin Martin and Jordan Balazovic — are having horrid seasons in the minors.
- The Twins are more than one arm away from being a formidable postseason team. They would have to improve their pitching staff dramatically to give themselves a realistic chance to beat the best teams in the American League — the Yankees and Astros — in a playoff series. They don't have enough trade capital to dramatically upgrade their pitching without devastating their farm system.
- The price for top pitching is high. To get Cincinnati starter Luis Castillo, the Mariners traded three of their top five prospects.
The most instructive story you'll hear about the true nature of the trade deadline was provided, years ago, by Twins manager Ron Gardenhire.
From 2002 through 2010, Gardenhire managed contenders every year, and virtually every year, at the trade deadline, he would complain about General Manager Terry Ryan's unwillingness to make deadline deals.
One July, Ryan invited Gardenhire to spend the last day before the trade deadline in his office. Gardenhire returned to his Metrodome office that night and said — this is a paraphrase — "I wouldn't have done any of those deals. Every team you talk to is trying to steal you blind.''
One of the most important questions facing the Twins' front office this year is philosophical: How much do you invest in a team that is slightly above .500 on Aug. 1, that has holes in the middle of the lineup and throughout the pitching staff, and that has the sixth-best record in the American League?
How much is a division title in the age of the 12-team playoff field worth?
Is it rational to trade for the three or four pitchers the Twins might need if those pitchers won't give you a realistic chance of beating the Yankees or Astros?
To put it in real-world terms: Would you trade Lewis, Miranda and Simeon Woods Richardson for a pitcher who might help you win the division but might make you only the third- or fourth-best team in the league?
