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Today's Soaking Will Dent The Drought

today will be fairly unpleasant for driving and even walking out to pick up the morning newspaper. Winds gust from 30-40 mph with heavy rain at times. Models have been amazingly consistent the last few days, predicting 1-2" of rain; even more south and west of the Minnesota River. Today's windswept soaking spills into early Saturday. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

October 13, 2023 at 2:30AM
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"Maps of the 2023 'Ring of Fire' Solar Eclipse"

"On Saturday, Oct. 14, an annular or "ring of fire" solar eclipse will sweep across much of the Western Hemisphere. North and Central America The darkest part of the moon's shadow will slide from Oregon to Texas on Saturday morning, then cross the Gulf of Mexico into Central America. Viewers inside this dark band — the path of annularity — will see a ring of light around the moon for up to 5 minutes. Viewers outside the path of annularity will see the crescent sun of a partial solar eclipse. The map below shows the path of the eclipse, and the approximate local time when the ring of fire will be visible."

Solar Eclipse on Saturday, October 14th (Eclipse data from NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Where to watch the solar eclipse in Minnesota"

Start looking for eclipse glasses as Minnesotans may be able to see a solar eclipse on Saturday, weather permitting. What's happening: An annular solar eclipse, also known as a "ring of fire" eclipse, will be visible across the U.S. on Oct. 14, and Minnesota is partially in its path. Most of the state will see 40%-50% maximum obscuration. It's the first solar eclipse visible in Minnesota since 2017 — though that one was obstructed by clouds and rain — and it will be the last annular eclipse visible from the U.S. until 2039. What to know: The eclipse is expected to peak locally around 11:45am with 45% coverage of the sun, according to NASA. Reality check: The forecast is showing mostly cloudy on Saturday with a 60% chance of rain, including potential showers during the eclipse's peak, per NWS. Local museums and observatories are still planning parties, including some that are rain or shine.

Here's where you can watch: The Bell Museum: The St. Paul natural history museum will have planetarium shows about eclipses, a pinhole projection station for guests to make their own viewing devices and a livestream of the eclipse from New Mexico, which is expected to see the ring of fire, from 10am-2pm. Eagle Lake Observatory: The Minnesota Astronomical Society will host a viewing event using its telescopes at its home base in Carver County from 10am-2pm. It's free to attend, but the event will be cancelled if cloudy.

Wet & Windy Friday Ahead

Here's the simulated radar from 1AM Friday to 1PM Saturday, which shows very wet weather in place on Friday with heavy rain at times. Showers will linger through the early half of Saturday with total rainfall amounts approaching 1" to 2" (possibly up to 3") across the southern half of the state. Wind gusts could approach 30mph to 40mph during that time frame.

Simulated Radar From AM Friday to Midday Saturday (COD Weather/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

Here's the extended precipitation outlook through the weekend, which shows widespread 1" to 2" tallies across the southern half of the state. Some locations could potentially see up to 3", mainly across the southwestern part of the state. This could be another drought denting rain for many, but still not enough to get out of the drought.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

90 Day Precipitation Anomaly

Thanks to some recent heavy rains parts of the state are now in a surplus over the last 90 days. Some of the biggest surpluses (which aren't many) are showing up in blue in pockets along and north of the Twin Cities and also just east of the metro in western Wisconsin.

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90 Day Precipitation Anomaly (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Drought Update

Recent heavy rains have helped the drought situation quite a bit in spots across the state. With that being said, we're still in a drought across much of the state with nearly 5% under an extreme drought, which improved since last week. We should see additional improvement after this weeks rain, but we won't see that show up in the drought maps until next week. Stay tuned...

Minnesota Drought Update (US Drought Monitor/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Fall Color Update

Here's a picture from Sandra Neeser and the MN DNR website at Crow Wing State Park State Park . Fall colors look well underway there and will continue over the coming days.

Crow Wing State Park (Sandra Neeser & MN DNR/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Fall Color Update

According to the MN DNR, the fall color season is well underway. Parts of northern Minnesota are already at and past peak color. Fall colors will continue to rapidly change, so take a moment and enjoy the season while you can. Note that most leaves will vacate the premises in a few weeks and won't return until sometime in mid/late May...

Minnesota Fall Color Update (MN DNR/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Wisconsin Fall Color Update

Here's a look at the fall color report in Wisconsin. Fall colors are peaking in some areas and peak isn't far away in others.

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Wisconsin Fall Color Update (Travel Wisconsin/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Typical Peak Fall Color

According to the MN DNR, typical peak color arrives across the international border mid to late September with peak color arriving near the Twin Cities late September to mid October. It won't be long now and you'll be able to find your favorite fall color in a backyard near you.

Typical Peak Colo (MN DNR/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Tropical Storm Sean

Here's a look at Tropical Storm Sean from PM Thursday, which looked pretty disorganized. Regardless, Sean becomes our 18th named storm of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Tropical Storm Sean From PM Thursday (NOAA Satellite/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

7 Day Atlantic Outlook

The 7 day outlook for the Atlantic Basin shows a couple of disturbances in place. The first is Sean in the Central Atlantic, while the 2nd is a developing wave just off the western tip of Africa that has a medium probability of formation over the next 7 days. Interestingly, this is drifting west toward the Eastern Caribbean and is something that we'll have to keep an eye on over the next several days.

7 Day Atlantic Outlook (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Past Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th, but did you know that the typical peak is September 10th? This is when the Atlantic Basin has had the most hurricanes and named storms since records began. This is also when weather conditions are at optimal levels for these types of storms.

Atlantic Hurricane & Tropical Storm Climatology (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook For Friday

The weather outlook on Friday will be wet and windy across the region with temps only warming into the 40s across much state, which will be nearly -10F to -15F below average. Friday will be a very uncomfortably wet day for many across the region.

Weather Outlook For Friday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Friday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Friday

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Friday, October 13th will not be a nice day at all. It'll be wet and windy with temps hovering in the 40s all day. Feels like readings will hold in the lower 40s. This will be a quite unpleasant day.

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Twin Cities Climate Data For Friday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms For Minneapolis

Temps in Minneapolis will hovering the 40s all day with scattered showers, heavy at times. The winds will be whipping with gusts approaching 40mph much of the day. Yuk!

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Friday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Friday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows much cooler temperatures as we head through the next several days. The coolest day will be Friday with readings only warming into the 40s, which will be nearly -10F to -15F below average for this time of the year. We'll warm into the 50s over the weekend and into early next week, which will still be about -5F below average.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

After Friday's very uncomfortable weather, the 7 day extended outlook shows temps only warming into the 50s through next week. We'll dry out a little more on Sunday with dry weather hanging on into most of next week.

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Feeling Like Fall

According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, temps will hover in the 50s over the next several days with overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. There appears to be a gradual warming trend later next week with highs approaching 60F once again.

NBM Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook

Here's the long range national weather forecast through next weekend, which shows our current storm system hanging on across the Midwest with areas of heavy rain and strong winds. That storm moves into the Eastern US with areas of heavy rain this weekend. Meanwhile, the Midwest will dry our for a few days before a couple of clipper slide in late next week and weekend with a light shot of rain.

National Weather Outlook Through Next Weekend (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows Warmer than average temperatures across the western half of the nation as we approach mid month. Cooler than average readings will be in place across the Southeast.

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8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

As we approach the 3rd and 4th week of October it appears that the Central and Western US will be a little quieter and drier.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Today's Soaking Will Dent The Drought
By Paul Douglas

With apologies to Pink Floyd, the rock band, it's not another brick in the wall. It's another dent in the drought. Drought has eased, but the US Drought Monitor shows 72% of the state is still in moderate drought. Nearly 40% of Minnesota is in severe drought. So I will root on the puddles.

That said, today will be fairly unpleasant for driving and even walking out to pick up the morning newspaper. Winds gust from 30-40 mph with heavy rain at times. Models have been amazingly consistent the last few days, predicting 1-2" of rain; even more south and west of the Minnesota River.

Today's windswept soaking spills into early Saturday. A damp start is likely with clouds hovering overhead and temperatures in the low 50s. Picnics optional. Sunday looks marginally better with less wind and a few spurts and squirts of sunshine. Expect 50s next week with a midweek clipper capable of more showers. Long-range models hint at 60s the weekend of October 21-22.

But Friday the 13th? A lucky day for lawns and fields.

Extended Forecast

FRIDAY: Gusty, heavy rain. Winds: NE 20-40. High 49.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Wet & windy. Rain, heavy at times. Winds: ENE 15-35. Low: 46.

SATURDAY: Damp start, leftover clouds. Winds: NE 15-30. High 53.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy, cool breeze. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 46. High: 56.

MONDAY: Partly sunny and quiet. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 41. High: 57.

TUESDAY: Plenty of sun, breezy. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 43. High: 59.

WEDNESDAY: Breezy with a fleeting shower. Winds: SW 10-20. Wake-up: 50. High 58.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy, few pop-up showers. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 50. High 57.

This Day in Weather History

October 13th

1917: Record low temperatures occur across central Minnesota with temperatures ranging from the low to mid teens to the upper teens and lower 20s. St. Cloud records the coldest temperature of 10 degrees, while Mora records a low of 13.

1880: An early blizzard strikes parts of southwest and west central Minnesota. Huge drifts exceeding 20 ft in the Canby area would last until the following spring.

1820: A snowstorm at Ft. Snelling dumps 11 inches.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

October 13th

Average High: 60F (Record: 84F set in 1956)

Average Low: 42F (Record: 22F set in 1917)

Record Rainfall: 1.52" set in 1890

Record Snowfall: Trace set in 1939, 1955, 2019 & 2022

Twin Cities Climate Data For October 13th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

October 13th

Sunrise: 7:25am

Sunset: 6:32pm

Hours of Daylight: ~11 hours & 6 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: 3 Minutes & 3 Seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 4 Hour & 41 Minutes

Moon Phase for October 13th at Midnight

0.5 Days Before New Moon

Moon Phase For October 12th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps on Friday

Temps on Friday will be cooler than average by nearly -5F to -15F across the Midwest and High Plains thanks for a fairly large and intense storm system moving through. Strong to severe storms will be possible across the Midwest with areas of heavy snow wrapping up across the high elevations in the Rockies.

National Weather Outlook For Thursday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Friday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook For Friday

A large storm system will continue to slide east on Friday with a few isolated strong to severe storms in the Midwest. Areas of heavy rain will continue in the Midwest and will eventually transition into the Eastern US over the weekend.

National Weather Map For Friday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

A storm system will continue to move through the Midwest on Friday with strong winds and heavy rainfall across parts of the region. As the storm moves east it will speed up a bit, but strong storms and heavy rainfall will still be a potential issue for some east of the Mississippi River.

National Weather Outlook Through Saturday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

The extended precipitation outlook through the weekend shows widespread soaking rains across the Midwest as we head into the 2nd half of the week. Some spots could see in excess of 2" of rain through Saturday! Areas of heavy rain will taper in the Southeastern US with heavy precipitation developing in the Northwest once again.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Climate rules are coming for corporate America"

"The cost of climate change is growing for companies as extreme weather disrupts manufacturing and supply chains and inflicts billions in economic losses. For the agriculture industry, the threat from rising temperatures "may be one of the greatest that we face in this lifetime," according to Corteva, an Indiana company that makes seeds and chemicals. But Corteva — which was previously part of DowDuPont — says it has a plan. There's money to be made producing things like biofuels to power ships and airplanes with less climate pollution, and crops that are better at resisting diseases as the planet gets hotter. And — crucially — Corteva says it is curbing some of its own emissions of the greenhouse gasses that are heating the planet. If it misses deadlines it set for operating more sustainably, the company says its relationships with customers and investors could suffer."

"TEAM FINDS SUSTAINABLE ALTERNATIVE TO AIR CONDITIONING"

"Researchers have found an inexpensive, sustainable alternative to mechanical cooling with refrigerants in hot and arid climates, and a way to mitigate dangerous heat waves during electricity blackouts. As the planet gets hotter, the need for cool living environments is becoming more urgent. But air conditioning is a major contributor to global warming since units use potent greenhouse gases and lots of energy. The researchers set out to answer how to achieve a new benchmark in passive cooling inside naturally conditioned buildings in hot climates such as Southern California. They examined the use of roof materials that radiate heat into the cold universe, even under direct sunlight, and how to combine them with temperature-driven ventilation. These cool radiator materials and coatings are often used to stop roofs overheating. Researchers have also used them to improve heat rejection from chillers. But there is untapped potential for integrating them into architectural design more fully, so they can not only reject indoor heat to outer space in a passive way, but also drive regular and healthy air changes."

"Heat Waves in the Ground Are Getting More Extreme—and Perilous"

"The atmosphere is rapidly warming, but the soil is also prone to heat waves. Scientists are racing to understand the consequences. UNLESS YOU'RE RUNNING around barefoot, you experience heat waves through air temperature. For the most part, that's how scientists track them too. "Heat extremes have been always studied based on air temperature, in part because we have a lot of observations of air temperatures," such as from meteorological stations, says Almudena García-García, an Earth system scientist at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research. But how heat waves are rippling through the ground is much less studied. This proliferation of heat could have major implications for the intricate natural systems that grow our food, process water, and even sequester carbon. At a certain point, warming soils could actually contribute to higher air temperatures, in a gnarly sort of climatic feedback loop."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
about the writer

about the writer

Todd Nelson

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