Thursday: Rain And Another Round Of Canadian Wildfire Smoke

Forecast loop between 7 PM Wednesday and 7 AM Friday.

As we head through Wednesday Night and Thursday, we will be watching a cold front moving across the state that'll bring rain chances along with it. While this will mostly be in the form of showers, a few thunderstorms can't be ruled out.

Rain with this system through the end of the week will generally be on the lighter side, with the best chances of seeing a quarter inch or more across the northern third of the state (where some half-inch or more tallies are possible) and in far southeastern Minnesota. Your rainfall may vary, though - especially if you end up under a thunderstorm.

A few of the storms could also be on the strong side across southeastern Minnesota, where a Marginal Risk of severe weather is in place. Hail, wind, and an isolated tornado is possible.

So as we head through Thursday we will be watching those couple rounds of showers and storms moving through the state along with a cold front. That front will bring cooler conditions into northwestern Minnesota, with highs only in the low 50s. Farther southeast, temperatures will climb into the 70s before that front arrives midday/early afternoon.

While we will likely start out the day dry here in the metro, rainy and stormy conditions are expected to move in as we head later into the morning hours. Those rain chances will continue throughout the rest of the day. Morning temperatures start off around 60F with highs around 70F during the midday hours before the cold front moves in, leveling off temperatures for the afternoon.

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While we had that Canadian smoke hanging around the atmosphere on Wednesday, another band of smoke is expected to drift south and east Wednesday Night into Thursday along with that cold front. Some of this smoke is expected to make it to the surface, causing poor air quality.

Due to the expected smoke and poor air quality that it will bring to the state, Air Quality Alerts have been issued for northwestern and north-central Minnesota from 10 PM Wednesday through Noon Thursday. The MPCA notes that, depending on how this unfolds, these could be extended south and east.

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As we head toward the weekend:

Friday: An few showers can't be ruled out (mainly early in the day) in the Twin Cities. Cooler conditions will be in place along with more clouds than sun as highs only make it to the lower 60s. Breezy northwest winds will gust up to 15 mph.

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Meanwhile, the heavy rain we saw late last week and into last weekend has caused the Mississippi and Minnesota Rivers to once again climb, mainly south of Fort Ripley. Elevated rivers across northern Minnesota are still due to the flooding that occurred earlier this Spring due to rain and snowmelt - but those rivers continue to be on the decline.

The Minnesota River at Jordan rose into moderate flood stage Wednesday morning and is expected to crest at 30.3ft on Saturday before water levels start to decrease.

Meanwhile, while the Mississippi River at St. Paul is still in "action" stage, it is expected to rise above minor flood stage on Friday and to moderate stage late Saturday, cresting around 15.5ft late in the weekend/early next week.

Due to the rising rivers, Fort Snelling State Park had to close again on Wednesday - just two days after reopening after the Spring flooding earlier this year.

The Utter Impossibility of Smoke Forecasts
By Paul Douglas

Chaos theory can make weather predictions all but impossible. For example: thick smoke plumes from Canadian wildfires dim the sun shining overhead, keeping us a few degrees cooler than predicted. Which means, to be able to nail the high temperature forecast you need to know the position and density of smoke plumes days in advance. Which requires upper level wind information and the almost supernatural ability to forecast when existing fires will fade and new blazes will form. Good luck with that. At this point I shrug and talk about the Twins.

Winds will swirl out of Canada for much of the next 3-5 days, so a partly-smoky forecast seems reasonable into the weekend. A more westerly wind flow aloft could mean less tainted sunshine next week with a warming trend, maybe a day topping 80F by midweek.

In the meantime a cooler front sparks 3-6 hours of showers today, maybe an instability shower on a brisk Friday.

Skies clear over the weekend with 70s. You can't ask for much more than that in mid-May.

Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

THURSDAY: Showers, possible thunder. Wake up 60. High 68. Chance of precipitation 90%. Wind W 10-15 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with a cool wind. Wake up 48. High 58. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 15-25 mph.

SATURDAY: Sunny and pleasant. Wake up 48. High 71. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 7-12 mph.

SUNDAY: Blue sky, trending milder. Wake up 53. High 74. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind N 8-13 mph.

TUESDAY: Sunny, hints of June. Wake up 61. High 80. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Warm sunshine, T-storms north/west. Wake up 63. High 82. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SW 10-20 mph.

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Minneapolis Weather Almanac And Sun Data
May 18th

*Length Of Day: 14 hours, 57 minutes, and 33 seconds
*Daylight GAINED Since Yesterday: 2 minutes and 9 seconds

This Day in Weather History
May 18th

1980: Mt. St. Helens erupts. The smoke plume eventually rises to 80,000 feet, circling the earth in 19 days. Brilliant sunsets due to the smoke are seen over Minnesota for days afterward.

1933: Tornadoes hit McLeod and Mower counties.

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On Thursday, scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected from the Great Lakes back into the Four Corners region. We will also see storm activity in the Southeast. A few record highs will be possible around Portland, OR.

Meanwhile, with that cold front diving out of Canada into the Upper Midwest, poor air quality will follow due to a band of Canadian wildfire smoke out of Alberta and Saskatchewan.

A couple of pockets of heavy rain are expected through the end of the week across the lower 48 - one in the southern Plains and another along the Mid-Atlantic coast. For some, rainfall amounts in these areas could top 3". Only a couple of inches of snow will be possible in the Colorado Rockies

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Formula One's Emilia Romagna GP called off amid heavy flooding

More from ESPN: "This weekend's Emilia Romagna Grand Prix at Imola, Italy, will not go ahead after extreme weather resulted in flooding in the local area, Formula One announced on Wednesday. F1 held meetings with local authorities and the race promoter on Wednesday before agreeing the event could not proceed safely. "The decision has been taken because it is not possible to safely hold the event for our fans, the teams and our personnel and it is the right and responsible thing to do given the situation faced by the towns and cities in the region," F1 said in a statement. "It would not be right to put further pressure on the local authorities and emergency services at this difficult time." ... Heavy rainfall in the area resulted in flooding on Tuesday night, leading to concerns the Santerno river, which runs adjacent to the Imola circuit, would overflow. The circuit was evacuated as a precaution earlier on Tuesday following a red weather alert warning of floods and landslides in the area."

More from CNN: "The world is now likely to breach a key climate threshold for the first time within the next five years, according to the World Meteorological Organization, due to a combination of heat-trapping pollution and a looming El Niño. Global temperatures have soared in recent years as the world continues to burn planet-warming fossil fuels like coal, oil and gas. And that trend shows no sign of slowing. In its annual climate update, the WMO said that between 2023 and 2027, there is now a 66% chance that the planet's temperature will climb above 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming above pre-industrial levels for at least one year. As temperatures surge, there is also a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years – and the five-year period as a whole – will be the warmest on record for the planet, the WMO reported."

Boeing's new tool lets airlines plan for net zero emissions

More from Axios: "As the aviation industry wrestles with meeting its net zero emissions goal by 2050, Boeing is offering a new tool meant to help executives, policymakers and other leaders explore the risks and rewards of potential pathways. Why it matters: Aviation's global CO2 emissions have doubled since 1987 and now account for about 2.5% of the worldwide total, according to the World Economic Forum. CO2 output will keep growing as demand for freight and passenger air travel increases — unless the industry undertakes substantial measures to reverse the trend."

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- D.J. Kayser