This year's coal: a brown Christmas

Jon Stanley would love to be lacing up his skates. But on his way to a Monday night showing of "White Christmas" at the Riverview Theater, he passed his neighborhood ice rink. These days, it looks "more like a lake," he said.

"It's a bummer," said Stanley, whose Longfellow back yard is sprouting chives. "This is Minnesota, right?"

It looks like the only white Christmas the Twin Cities will see might be on a screen. Forecasters predict a week of rainy, cloudy weather will give the metro area a present that didn't make most folks' wish lists: a Thursday without snow. It would become the third brown Christmas in the past decade.

In 115 years of record-keeping, the Twin Cities area has had a white Christmas 72 percent of the time, according to an analysis by the National Weather Service and the State Climatology Office. "White" means at least an inch of snow on the ground at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport. Any less than that? "Brown."

But to meteorologist Paul Douglas, this year is "more green than brown," at least judging by his lawn. That's because December has brought rain and above-freezing temperatures, he said. A healthy 9.4 inches of snow fell in November, Douglas noted on his blog. So far this month: 1.4 inches.

"Santa's still coming," Douglas joked, but he might trade his sleigh for a red SUV.

Raindrops covered the Nokomis Shoe Store's windows Tuesday, dotting the white snowflakes that had been painted alongside the words "Hello SNOW!"

Neither will the planned snow-tubing. But the trip was worth it to see a friend from college, who lives in south Minneapolis, Davis said. Her daughter will get some snow, however. After the holiday, she'll be ice fishing, snowshoeing and dog-sledding at Camp Menogyn's teen camp in northeastern Minnesota.

"Escape the drizzle and head north!" the camp's Facebook page exclaims. Alongside the message, a photo: the week's forecast, with plenty of snowflakes. Wednesday: "A slight chance of snow and a low of 20 degrees."

Snow is expected this week in northeastern Minnesota, where the long-term data show the chance of waking up to a brown Christmas is slim. With a few inches predicted, southeastern Minnesota, too, has "a better chance of a beige Christmas," Douglas said.

The weather seems to swing from one extreme to another. In 2010, there was 19 inches of snow on the ground. Then 2011 was brown. Last year brought 9 inches of snow. This year, brown. "Odds are, we'll make up for it next year," Douglas promised.

After last year's snowy December, this weather is welcome at the Minnesota Department of Transportation, said spokeswoman Kirsten Klein. Crews that would otherwise be busy plowing are able to do warm-season chores — things like guardrail repair, pothole fixing and tree trimming.

Skiers, skaters and broomball teams are less enthused. Cross-country skiers at Wirth Winter Recreation Area have been confined to a 1-kilometer ribbon of man-made snow, said Robin Smothers, spokeswoman for the Minneapolis Park and Recreation Board. A "very narrow" slice of the tubing hill has opened, but the snowboarding hill is out of the question. The opening of the city's ice rinks has been delayed, leaving the maintenance crews "waiting and waiting for cold weather," Smothers said.

November was about 8 degrees colder than average, but because the ground wasn't frozen, they couldn't flood the rinks. By the time the ground froze, the weather warmed. Crews need 10 full days of temperatures that are 20-degrees or colder, Smothers said.

At Longfellow Park on Tuesday, geese stood in water that, by now, was supposed to be an ice rink. Nearby, Chris Jandro and two boys, ages 7 and 8, played basketball in the drizzle. "These guys wanted to go to the park," Jandro said, nodding to the boys, "and what else can you do in the park right now?"