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The Vikings will beat the Eagles in the NFC Championship Game if ...

By Ben Goessling

January 21, 2018 at 2:38AM

New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees was surrounded by Vikings in the second quarter last Sunday. They will seek to put that sort of pressure Sunday on Nick Foles. (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

If Carson Wentz were healthy, trying to beat the Eagles at home would be a much taller task. But with him out, the Vikings have the QB advantage. If Case Keenum can get enough time to throw and avoid making the big mistake, the Vikings will return home to play in the Super Bowl. Prediction: Vikings 17, Eagles 13.

Three big story lines

Keenum-Foles reunion

Who knew the 2015 St. Louis Rams had a Super Bowl quarterback in their midst? Case Keenum and Nick Foles were teammates on that team. It's the first conference title game matchup since the AFL-NFL merger to involve two QBs who didn't start for their teams in Week 1.

defense could win a title

The Vikings have the NFL's top-ranked defense in scoring and yards; the Eagles are fourth in both. Whichever team wins the game, on a field that still could be slippery near the sidelines, could be the one whose defense makes more big plays.

dealing with the home 'dogs

Eagles fans again will don thousands of German shepherd masks Sunday, where Philadelphia will be underdog for its second consecutive home playoff game.

two key matchups

vikings cb Xavier Rhodes vs. EAGLES WR ALSHON JEFFERY

When Jeffery was with the Bears, he became one of the first receivers Rhodes shadowed. On Sunday, the two former NFC North rivals could tangle again in Philadelphia, where Jeffery led the Eagles with nine receiving scores.

vikings g joe berger vs. eagles dt fletcher cox

An offensive line that allowed Case Keenum to be pressured on 40.2 percent of his dropbacks since the bye week, according to Pro Football Focus, will have its hands full Sunday. Berger will see plenty of Cox, the two-time Pro Bowl tackle who had 5½ sacks and plays a pivotal role in the team's ability to get pressure up the middle.

one stat that matters

24Eagles QB Nick Foles' passer rating when he has been pressured. Foles has a passer rating of 106.3 when he is kept clean.

The Vikings will win if…

• They are able to get to Foles and keep the Eagles from extending drives with their running game, while avoiding mistakes.

The eagles will win if…

• They can control the clock with their running game and pressure Keenum from a number of different angles.

Goessling's win probability

55%

Jeffrey (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

about the writer

Ben Goessling

Sports reporter

Ben Goessling has covered the Vikings since 2012, first at the Pioneer Press and ESPN before becoming the Minnesota Star Tribune's lead Vikings reporter in 2017. He was named one of the top NFL beat writers by the Pro Football Writers of America in 2024, after honors in the AP Sports Editors and National Headliner Awards contests in 2023.