It is dangerous to be optimistic about the Timberwolves, but it is no fun to be pessimistic even if that often proves to be prudent.
The Timberwolves will win 55 games and host a playoff series if ...
The ceiling is high for this year's Wolves team. Just how high will depend on these five factors.
October 19, 2022 at 10:18PM
This year, there is as much reason for optimism as at any point since Kevin Garnett was playing at an MVP level. Nothing will be given to the Wolves, who start their season Wednesday night at Target Center against Oklahoma City, but the path is there for them to win roughly two out of every three games.
As I see it, these are the five keys to the Wolves winning 55 games, getting a top-four seed in the Western Conference and being a legitimate playoff threat:
- Defensive consistency: The Wolves finished a respectable No. 13 in defensive rating last season, a major key in their jump to 46 wins and a playoff berth. Within that solid showing, though, there was inconsistency whenever the Wolves strayed from their scramble and recover style of coverage. They also were bludgeoned by offensive rebounds and second chance points throughout the year — and most significantly in losing to Memphis in the playoffs. The acquisition of defensive stalwart Rudy Gobert will obviously help, particularly on the rebounding side, but we still need to see if the Wolves can play the sorts of multiple coverages that will be required of them against top opponents.
- Chemistry and roles clicking earlier rather than later: Let's not forget, this team started 4-9 a season ago. That means they were 42-27 the rest of the way, but scrambling like that can be exhausting. The schedule this year sets up favorably for a quicker start, with nine of the first 12 games at home. But as was discussed on Wednesday's Daily Delivery podcast, early-season role definition, particularly for players like Anthony Edwards, could lead to some clunky moments. How quickly things come together will be a key to reaching the mid-50s in wins; the games in October and November, after all, count just the same in the standings as all the rest.
- Contract year D'Angelo Russell: As Chris Hine and I also discussed on the podcast, Russell is still here. He was an All-Star with the Nets the last time he went into a season searching for a big new contract, and he still has the potential to be the X-factor in a lot of games for the Wolves. He will make the offense flow or bog down, and he could have some different defensive responsibilities this season as well. A motivated, healthy and productive D-Lo is essential for success.
- The Karl-Anthony Towns and Gobert experiment: This goes without saying and has been explored in much greater detail than you will find here, but pairing two talented but different seven-foot centers in the same lineup is going to require some flexibility and some magic from head coach Chris Finch. Will it work against smaller closing time lineups? Can Towns adjust to a lot of minutes at power forward? We didn't get much of a preseason sample size, so there will be kinks to work out along the way. But they are two of the Wolves' three best players, so maximizing their strengths is critical.
- Role players being a net positive: The Wolves didn't deal away any stars to get Gobert, but they traded three players with important defined roles in Patrick Beverley, Jarred Vanderbilt and Malik Beasley. All three ranked in the top seven on the team in minutes played last season. Expanded roles for Jaylen Nowell and Taurean Prince, plus contributions from newcomers Kyle Anderson, Austin Rivers and Bryn Forbes (among others) will tell a big story in the middle quarters of games.
Perhaps the biggest difference this season compared to previous years is none of these five factors seem particularly outlandish. The path to being a real contender in the West is clear and attainable. Now we have to see if the Wolves can get there.
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