The Drive: Rising gas prices might make us safer

Those free-falling gasoline prices have started to rebound, but the bad news for the wallet may hold some good news for drivers. Prices for a gallon of gas locally have crept up over the past couple of weeks, after bottoming out at under $2 in late January.

In Minnesota, where the new year brought some of the lowest gas prices in five years, prices have jumped 22 cents during the first two weeks of February, one of the steepest increases anywhere in the country. The average price was $2.18 as of Friday, according to AAA.

This rise should not be a surprise, said Patrick DeHaan, a petroleum analyst with GasBuddy.com, which provides retail fuel pricing information.

"A seasonal rise is almost as sure as death and taxes," he said. "This is something motorists should be accustomed to; we see it every year."

Before we start crying foul, let's point out that prices are still about $1.10 lower than this time last year. And the long-term forecast bodes well. DeHaan said he expects gas prices to peak between $2.50 and $2.70, barring unforeseen circumstances, substantially below what motorists paid last summer.

Prices generally rise 30 to 80 cents during the spring and early summer for two reasons. First, demand goes up as motorists drive more. Second, refineries cut production as they conduct maintenance and begin switching to a blend that burns cleaner gas as mandated by the Environmental Protection Agency.

"When we give the reasoning of refinery maintenance, drivers are skeptical," DeHaan said. "Unless Houdini can change the oil with the car running, it has to be done. Refineries are subject to the elements and nobody wants an explosion [like one in Ohio in January]. That would bring even more pain at the pump."

Just last week the state Department of Public Safety reported that February was off to a deadly start with 13 fatalities as of last Tuesday. A coincidence? Maybe not.

Researcher Guangqing Chi of the Department of Sociology and Rural Studies at South Dakota State University looked at the correlation between gas prices and traffic safety. In a study examining crash data in Minnesota from 1998 to 2007, Chi found that a 20-cent drop in gas prices resulted in 15 more fatalities a year. Conversely, he found that a 20-cent increase would bring a decrease of 15 deaths annually.

The study also found that as gas prices rise, the crash rate per million miles traveled dropped in urban and rural areas. It found higher gasoline prices also have significant effects in reducing property damage and injury crashes.

In another study using data from Alabama and Mississippi, Chi found higher gas prices had the biggest effect on teens. With their lower incomes, teens are discouraged from driving by high gas prices and that reduces their crash rate. That makes the roads safer for other drivers, he said.

When fuel prices skyrocketed to more than $4 a gallon in 2008, many drivers drove less frequently and perhaps less aggressively, which reduced their chances of having a crash, the study said.