The battle over the battleground states

November 5, 2008 at 7:26AM

Colorado Democrats capitalize on population shift

Long seen as out of reach to Democrats, Colorado was the linchpin of the party's attempt to make gains in the fast-changing, fast-growing Intermountain West.

Not for nothing did the party pick Denver for its national convention. Buoyed by strong down-ticket candidates, Barack Obama repeatedly blitzed the state with visits and ad dollars, just as John McCain did. McCain made a campaign stop on Election Day.

With its recent population surge fueled by new residents from Democratic states and Hispanics, it's no longer a reliably red state, as a string of statewide Democratic wins has shown. More evidence of a possible flip: Even as the GOP was slashing its ad budget in the state, Obama had his biggest one-day turnout of supporters: more than 150,000 at two rallies a little more than a week ago.

Florida Memories of 2000 vote fueled battle of '08

Florida was a battleground from the start, fueled by long memories that the state delivered the presidency to George W. Bush by a mere 537 votes. Although Obama had little hope in the north, the so-called Redneck Riviera, he was banking on a strong showing in the Tampa-St. Petersburg metropolitan sprawl that anchors the center of the state. A pair of wild cards: the large Jewish population in and around Miami and the state's huge Hispanic population, which includes reliably Republican Cuban-Americans. Even in the final days of the campaign, it wasn't clear whether Obama's spending and visits amounted to little more than a head fake to McCain, forcing him to tie up resources in the state that could have been used elsewhere. But the lineup of visitors to the state -- the candidates, plus Bill Clinton and Rudy Giuliani, among others -- reflected the importance it carried.

Indiana Repeat visits showed Obama saw blue

Obama's campaign strategists believed this was a state within reach, even though a Democratic presidential candidate hadn't won it since 1964. Four years ago, President Bush carried Indiana by a margin of about 20 points against challenger John Kerry.

Obama had the backing of popular Sen. Evan Bayh and benefited from the fact that he's a familiar presence in northwest Indiana, which is part of the Chicago media market.

Obama made a number of visits to the state, including one on Election Day after he'd voted in Illinois -- striking, given that Democratic candidates have rarely come so late in the campaign season. Both vice presidential candidates -- Sarah Palin and Joe Biden -- also came calling, and it was little wonder why: By last week, polls showed that Obama had slowly gained ground against McCain to a point where the candidates were essentially tied.

Missouri Bellwether state was bipartisan target

The middle of Middle America, Missouri is nearly as a reliable a bellwether of presidential elections as Ohio, with obvious Republican strength in recent elections. The last time Missouri backed a losing candidate was 1956, and that was the only time it has done so since 1904.

The state has a little of everything, making it a ripe target for both candidates this year. Kansas City and St. Louis and their close-in suburbs appeared to be a lock for Obama, with the exurbs of both metropolitan areas likely to be won by McCain. The southern region of the state has more in common with the South than the Midwest, while the farm country that blankets much of the rest of the state was, essentially, up for grabs.

In the final month of the campaign, the candidates and their running mates blitzed the state more than a half-dozen times.

Nevada Obama pursued two-prong strategy

In Nevada, another Western state where the GOP's hegemony appears to have been weakened, Obama pinned his hopes on a double-edged strategy. He was counting on a strong showing in Las Vegas, the nation's fastest-growing metro area, where so many recently arrived residents from other states could be expected to dilute the Republicans' one-time dominance. Secondly, he was banking on a strong showing among Latino voters, another fast-growing slice of the electorate who never warmed to McCain's message.

On the ground, Obama appeared to have out-organized McCain in recent months, reflecting the grass-roots groundwork that was laid before last winter's precinct caucuses.

In early voting in the state's two largest counties, registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans, but at least one exit poll pointed to a close race.

North Carolina Forces competed in a state in flux

No Democrat has won North Carolina since 1976, but Obama made a concerted push for it. It became a swing state this year largely because of an increase in registration among younger voters and blacks, as well as the large number of transplants from the Midwest and New England.

Obama relied on that, building off his primary win, bolstering it with massive advertising spending in the state and choosing the state as the location for his preparation sessions for the second debate.

Counterbalancing that were North Carolina's large number of evangelical voters and the state's inherent conservatism, which favored McCain.

Polls showed the race to be very close as the clock wound down.

Four years ago, President Bush carried North Carolina by 12 points.

Ohio Obama carries the GOP 'must-have' state

The state may be the most pivotal in the nation, given that no Republican has ever been elected without winning it and no Democrat can be sure of winning without it.

It's the seventh-biggest state in the nation, with 20 electoral votes. Its presidential vote totals have consistently mirrored the nationwide totals, as it did in 2004, when President Bush matched his national average in Ohio and John Kerry won 1 percentage point more than his average.

It was the state that put Bush over the top. Both McCain and Obama repeatedly swooped into Ohio, even as polls showed Obama caught up with McCain in mid-September and continued to hold a small lead in the polls in the last weeks of the campaign.

McCain, Obama and running mates Sarah Palin and Joe Biden all made stops in the state in the closing days of the race.

Virginia Changing demographics diluted red hue

Who would have believed that the one-time capital of the Confederacy would be a possible pick-up for an African-American nominee?

Long one of the deepest-red states east of the Mississippi River, Virginia's demographic changes in recent decades made it a genuine battleground. Strong Democratic performances in statewide races provide evidence of that. Obama's crushing victory in the state's primary was due in large part to his overwhelming strength in the northern part of the state, which has increasingly become Washington's suburban hub and less reflective of the solid South.

That strength, however, was offset by weakness in the state's west, which remains solidly Republican. A month ago, it was routinely described as McCain's last stand, but Obama held a steady if narrowing lead through late October.

BOB VON STERNBERG

Ohio

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