Historic Flooding on the Rainy River Basin
"High water levels are occurring across the Rainy River Basin in far northern Minnesota and adjacent parts of Ontario. This is a historic flood that has already exceeded the records set in the 2014 flooding, and will likely break the current all-time records. It will take a long time for these levels to decrease once they peak (crest), and those experiencing flooding should be prepared for weeks of high water levels into June. As of May 25, many of the major tributaries upstream (like Basswood River, Vermilion River, Kawishiwi River) have crested and are beginning to drop. However, this will only slow the rise of Namakan/Kabetogama and Rainy Lake - continued rises are still anticipated in the coming days: Namakan Lake and Kabetogama Lake are currently at 1122.0 ft (341.99 m), which is 17.7 inches (45 cm) above the 2014 peak level. A rise of 5 to 7 inches (12-19 cm) is expected between May 25 and June 1 with continued rises into mid June possible. At this rate, Namakan Lake will reach the all-time record high level of 1122.8 ft (342.24 m) set in 1916. Rainy Lake is currently at 1111.7 ft (338.85 m), which is 4 inches (11 cm) above the 2014 peak. A rise of 11 to 13 inches (27-33 cm) is expected between May 25 and June 1, with continued through at least mid June. At this rate, Rainy Lake is expected to break the all-time record high level of 1112.95 ft (339.23 m) set in 1950."
See more from the NWS Duluth HERE:
Memorial Weekend Outlook
The weather outlook for the Twin Cities this Memorial Weekend Holiday shows warmer and more unsettled weather moving in. It'll feel a bit more humid with chances of showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall. The warmest day arrives on Monday with highs warming into the 90s, which would only be the 2nd time this year that the Twin Cities has hit 90F or better. The first time was on May 12th when we warmed to 92F.
Severe Weather Outlook Saturday
According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, there is a Marginal Risk of severe storms across parts of central Minnesota Saturday Night. A few storms could be strong to severe with gusty winds and hail being the primary threat overnight into early Sunday morning.
Severe Weather Outlook Sunday
Another round of strong to severe storms may develop late Sunday into Sunday night across the region. According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, there is an Enhanced Risk across western and southwestern Minnesota, where the risk of large hail, damaging winds and even a few tornadoes is the greatest. Storms will likely being late Sunday afternoon in western and southwestern Minnesota and will continue through the evening and overnight time period as the storms spread northeast through the state.
Severe Weather Outlook Monday
The weather outlook on Memorial Day Monday looks unsettled once again with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon, especially across western Minnesota. Large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible.
Up North Saturday Weather Outlook
Temps across the northern half of the state on Saturday will warm into the upper 60s and lower 70s with a few isolated t-showers in the morning and once again overnight. Note that readings closer to Lake Superior will be much cooler with readings only warming into the 50s and 60s, but temps across central Minnesota could warm into the 80s.
Up North Sunday Weather Outlook
Sunday will be another unsettled day with lingering showers and storms possible in the morning and another round developing in the late afternoon and evening. Some of the storms could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures will also be a bit warmer side with readings warming into the 70s and 80s.
Up North Monday Weather Outlook
Monday will be another unsettled day with strong to severe storms expected in the afternoon and evening across parts of the state. There could also be areas of heavy rainfall with temperatures warming into the 70s and 80s. Monday will likely be the warmest and most humid day of the long holiday weekend.
Unsettled Holiday Weekend
Here's the weather outlook from AM Saturday to PM Tuesday. Showers and storms will be possible in the morning on Saturday with more strong to severe storms possible late Saturday night. Sunday and Monday afternoon and evening could feature more strong to severe storms will locally heavy rains.
Precipitation Potential Through The Weekend
Here's the extended precipitation outlook through the middle part of next week. Thanks to scattered showers and storms, some locations across the state could see anywhere from 1" to 2" of rain, especially across the northern part of the state.
Precipitation & Departure From Average Since March 1st
It has been a pretty wet spring for many locations around regions. Despite a few locations dealing with deficits, most climate reporting stations are running above average precipitation Since March 1st. The Twin Cities is nearly 2" above average and the 22nd wettest start to any spring on record. St. Cloud is the 10th wettest on record. Eau Claire, WI is the 4th wettest. International Falls is at its wettest start to spring on record!
Minnesota Drought Update
Thanks to above average precipitation so far this year, we've wiped out much of the drought that was in place to start the year. In fact, as of early January, nearly 10% of the state in northern Minnesota was considered in a severe drought. Now, only 3% of the state is considered to be abnormally dry.
Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Saturday
The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Saturday could start a bit on the unsettled side with spotty showers and storms through mid to late morning. Weather conditions will then turn sunnier with warmer temps through the afternoon. In fact, highs will top out in the mid 80s, which will be nearly +10F to +15F above average for the end of May.
Meteograms for Minneapolis
The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Saturday shows temperatures starting around 60F in the morning and warming in mid 80s by the afternoon. Showers and storms will be possible through mid/late morning before drying out with more sunshine through much of the rest of the day. Southerly winds will be a bit breezy with gusts approaching 30mph.
Weather Outlook on Saturday
Temps around the region on Saturday will warm into the 70s and 80s, which will be nearly +5F to +15F above average. However, readings in northeastern MN will only warm into the 50s and 60s, which will be nearly -5F to -10F below average thanks to a cooler breeze off of Lake Superior. Showers and storms will be possible through about midday with another round of showers and storms possible overnight Saturday into Sunday morning.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows temps running well above average through the holiday weekend. Highs into the 80s and lower 90s will be nearly +10F to +20F above average for late May. We'll still be above average on the last day of May on Tuesday with a cooler than average start to June on Wednesday.
Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis
The extended weather outlook over the next 7 days shows unsettled weather taking us through the holiday weekend. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Tuesday of next week, some of which could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall.
Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis
According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, temps will be warmer than average through the long holiday weekend and into early next week with readings warming into the 80s. It turns a little cooler into early June with readings falling to near or even below average levels.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows above average temps across the Front Range of the Rockies and the Southern US. Meanwhile, folks from the Midwest to the Northeast will be a little chillier than average going into early June.
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 Day precipitation outlook shows a better chance of active weather in the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, drier weather will settle in from the Ohio Valley to the Southern US.
The Agricultural Benefits of Lightning
By Paul Douglas
Thunderstorms get a bad rap. A "threat" of storms, a "risk" of thunder and lightning. Of course any thunderstorm, even one that isn't severe with large hail and damaging winds, is capable of dangerous lightning strikes. But lightning also zaps nitrogen molecules in the air, allowing nitrates to be carried to the ground in rain. If anyone asks, lightning is a "super fertilizer".
Keep that in mind later this weekend when you're chased indoors by growling skies. Showers and a few thunderclaps early today give way to PM sunshine. It should dry out later today. A more unstable and volatile atmosphere ignites strong to severe storms late Sunday, and I do expect some watches and warnings. Another spirited round of storms may arrive late Monday.
On the positive side, I see enough sticky sunshine for 80s Sunday and Memorial Day, definitely beach and lake-worthy. How wet? Models print out 1-3" rains for central and northern Minnesota by Tuesday.
Cooler, drier(quieter) weather returns later next week. Have fun!
Extended Forecast
SATURDAY: Early T-storms, then warm sunshine. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 56. High: 79.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, chance of storms. Winds: SSE 10-15. Low: 66.
SUNDAY: Some sun, humid. Few T-storms. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 63. High: 82.
MONDAY: Partly sunny, few pop-up storms. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 62. High: 81.
TUESDAY: Clouds increase. Winds: SE 10-15. High: 65.
WEDNESDAY: Rain likely. Maybe an inch. Winds: NE 10-20. Wake-up: 51. High: 55.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy, but drier. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 47. High: 59.
FRIDAY: Sunny and close to perfect. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 45. High: 75.
This Day in Weather History
May 28th
1965: Late season snow falls across much of Minnesota with Duluth and Caribou reporting an inch.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
May 28th
Average High: 73F (Record: 100F set in 2018)
Average Low: 54F (Record: 36F set in 1889 & 1965)
Record Rainfall: 2.08" set in 1899
Record Snowfall: Trace set in 1965
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
May 28th
Sunrise: 5:32am
Sunset: 8:48pm
Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 16 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 1 minute & 38 seconds
Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 6 Hour & 30 Minutes
Moon Phase for May 28th at Midnight
1.2 Days Before New Moon
National High Temps Saturday
The weather outlook on Saturday shows above average temps returning to the Central US with record warmth possible across parts of the Central and Southern Plains, which highs from southwest Kansas to west Texas will warm into the 100s!
National Weather Outlook
Here's the national weather outlook through Sunday, which shows unsettled weather moving into the Midwest from the Pacific Northwest over the next several days. Looks for several days of severe thunderstorm and heavy rainfall across the Midwest.
Extended Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, areas of heavier precipitation will be found across parts of the northern tier of the nation and the Central US. There also appears to be some heavy rain across southern Florida and the Bahamas.
Climate Stories
"New Research On Tidal Flats Is 'Wake Up Call' For US Coastal Communities"
"About 29 percent of the United States' population live in coastline counties – more than 41 million are in Atlantic counties. This high population density poses a critical challenge to sustainable developments in coastal areas. Tidal flats, which make up coastal wetlands, are facing unprecedented challenges because of increased human activities. They are widely recognized as sentinels of coastal environment change. Importantly, they are the guardians for beachfront communities as they can largely mitigate destructive forces from the ocean. Without them, coastal communities are more vulnerable. Currently, there isn't an effective way to identify and quantify the interactions between urban areas and tidal flats, which is essential to preserve the nation's coastal communities. Moreover, existing research is limited to individual cities, which doesn't provide the big picture."
See more from Eurasia Review HERE:
"Late May meteor shower has potential to become a major 'meteor storm'"
"The month of May could come to an end with a spectacular sky show — or a dud. That's what astronomy experts are saying about a fairly new meteor shower known as Tau Herculids, which is expected to be visible during the late-night hours on Monday, May 30, into the early-morning hours on Tuesday, May 31, 2022. How visible? That's the big question. Experts say this meteor shower is not one of the reliable ones that appears every year during the same general time frame, but it is forecast to come into view from our planet at the tail end of Memorial Day night. And some believe the Tau Herculids shower has the potential to become a rare "meteor storm," potentially producing hundreds of meteors — maybe as many as 1,000 per hour — for a short time."
"Photographer Captures the Many Colors of the Full Moon Over 10 Years"
"In a unique lunar composite that took ten years to complete, Italian teacher and astrophotographer Marcella Giulia Pace captured all the different colors she observed of a full Moon. Pace teaches at a primary school in Italy but also pursues her passion for astronomy, mountains, and optical illusions. Some of her astrophotography work has been published internationally and recognized in awards, like the Astronomy Photographer of the Year, organized by the Royal Museums Greenwich. Have collected a diverse set of full Moon shots over the past ten years, Pace brought them all together in one striking composite that showcases the many different faces, colors, and even shapes of the Earth's only natural satellite."
