Gov. Mark Dayton offered a sharply worded threat to the Republican-controlled Legislature last week: "There's nothing the administration has to have in this session. There are things that are very important to have. Things that are going to benefit the people of Minnesota, like a tax bill. But there's nothing that we have to have."
Dayton's bold boast of his strong bargaining position was just one of several indicators that a tax deal at the Legislature may be only a 50-50 proposition.
There's widespread agreement at the Capitol that the Legislature needs to address the state's tax system after the federal tax overhaul last year; not doing so will mean a complicated mess next year for taxpayers and the Department of Revenue, plus a tax increase for an estimated 300,000 households.
Dayton was telling Republicans, who have been attacking his plan, that they better deal, or he'll walk away.
Republicans also indicated a willingness to take a walk: "Maybe we should wait for a new governor interested in real tax reform," tweeted Bill Walsh, a Senate Republican aide.
Dayton's retirement from politics brings up another potential impediment to a deal: He will never face the voters again, so why would he sign anything unless it's most of what he wants?
The effects of not doing a tax bill won't be felt this year and therefore won't be much of an election issue.
Which means Republicans can pass a bill they like, send it to Dayton for his veto, and then tell the base GOP voters they need that they tried but were thwarted by their nemesis.
