Taste of late November on tap next week

A few thunderstorms today may be strong, even severe. Some models print out 1- to 2-inch rains for far southern Minnesota. We dry out a little Wednesday before another surge of rain Thursday. Each successive storm drags increasingly chilly air southward out of Canada. By the weekend, the lowest mile of the atmosphere will be cold enough for snow. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

October 24, 2023 at 2:30AM

Few Showers PM Sunday

The simulated radar from AM Tuesday to PM Wednesday shows scattered showers and storms developing across southeastern Minnesota later in the day Tuesday. Some of the storms could be a little strong with locally heavy rainfall.

Simulated Radar From AM Tuesday to PM Wednesday (COD Weather/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Severe Risk on Monday

According to NOAA's SPC, there is a Marginal Risk of severe storms PM Tuesday with wind and hail being the primary threat.

Severe Risk on Tuesday (NOAA SPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Precipitation Outlook

The precipitation outlook through PM Wednesday shows locally heavy rainfall across southeastern Minnesota, where some 1" rainfall tallies will be possible.

Precipitation Outlook Through PM Wednesday (WeatherBell & NOAA's NDFD/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook

Weather conditions through the 2nd half of the week and into the weekend show several round rain rain and possibly snow moving through the Midwest. The heaviest rainfall will be across the southeastern part of the state, while some wet snow accumulations will be possible across the northern half of the state.

Extended Weather Outlook Through The Weekend (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

The extended precipitation outlook through early next week shows some 1" to 3" rainfall tallies across the Southeastern part of the state. There could also be some near 1" tallies across the northwestern part of the state.

Extended Precipitation Outlook Through The Weekend (WeatherBell & NOAA's WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snowfall Potential?

Several models are showing the potential of snow as we head into the later half of the week and weekend ahead. The snowfall amounts won't be overly heavy, but there could be some slushy accumulations across parts of northern Minnesota later this week.

Snowfall Outlook (WeatherBell & NOAA's NBM/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

90 Day Precipitation Anomaly

Thanks to some recent heavy rains parts of the state are now in a surplus over the last 90 days. Some of the biggest surpluses are showing up in blue in pockets across parts of central Minnesota, including the Twin Cities and into western Wisconsin. It has been a very soggy last 4 weeks.

90 Day Precipitation Anomaly (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Drought Update

Recent heavy rains have helped the drought situation quite a bit in spots across the state. With that being said, we're still in a drought across much of the state with nearly 5% under an extreme drought, which improved since last week. We should see additional improvement after this weeks rain, but we won't see that show up in the drought maps until next week. Stay tuned...

Minnesota Drought Update (US Drought Monitor/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Fall Color Update

Here's a picture from Mai Xiong Thao & the MN DNR Website at Afton State Park. Fall colors look well underway there and are peaking or past peak across much of the northern half of Minnesota.

Afton State Park (Mai Xiong Thao & MN DNR Website/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Fall Color Update

According to the MN DNR, much of Minnesota is at or past peak. Fall colors will continue to rapidly change, so take a moment and enjoy the season while you can. Note that most leaves will vacate the premises in a few weeks and won't return until sometime in mid/late May...

Minnesota Fall Color Update (MN DNR/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Wisconsin Fall Color Update

Here's a look at the fall color report in Wisconsin. Fall colors are peaking in some areas and peak isn't far away in others.

Wisconsin Fall Color Update (Travel Color Update/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Typical Peak Fall Color

According to the MN DNR, typical peak color arrives across the international border mid to late September with peak color arriving near the Twin Cities late September to mid October. It won't be long now and you'll be able to find your favorite fall color in a backyard near you.

Typical Peak Colo (MN DNR/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Hurricane Tammy

Here's a look at Hurricane Tammy from earlier in the day Monday. This storm drifted north of the Leeward Islands on Monday, but still looks somewhat disorganized.

Hurricane Tammy From Monday (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Tracking Tammy

According to NOAA's NHC, Tammy will continue to remain at hurricane status through midweek. It may weaken to a tropical storm later this week and take a hard left toward Bermuda by Friday & Saturday. Stay tuned...

Tracking Tammy (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

7 Day Atlantic Outlook

The 7 day outlook for the Atlantic Basin shows Hurricane Tammy north of the Caribbean and tracking toward Bermuda by the weekend. Tropical Depression Twenty-One also developed in the western Caribbean on Monday and will bring very heavy rainfall to Central America.

7 Day Atlantic Outlook (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Past Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th, but did you know that the typical peak is September 10th? This is when the Atlantic Basin has had the most hurricanes and named storms since records began. This is also when weather conditions are at optimal levels for these types of storms.

Atlantic Hurricane & Tropical Storm Climatology (NOAA NHC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook For Tuesday

The temperature outlook on Tuesday shows quite a range from northwest to southeast across the state. Folks in far northwestern Minnesota will only warm into the mid/upper 40s, while areas in southeastern Minnesota will warm into the low/mid 70s. Areas in southeastern Minnesota will be nearly +20F warmer than average along with scattered showers and storms, some of which could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall.

Weather Outlook For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Tuesday

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Tuesday, October 24th will be quiet during the first part of the day, but scattered showers and storms are expected to develop in the southeastern corner of the state during the PM hours. Temps will warm into the low/mid 60s, which will be nearly +10F above average for this time of the year.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms For Minneapolis

Temperatures in Minneapolis will start in the mid 50s in the morning and will warm into the low/mid 60s in the afternoon. We should be dry to start, but scattered showers and storms will develop in the afternoon across the southeastern part of the state and will drift north into the Twin Cities later in the day. Northerly winds will be around 5mph to 15mph through the day.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows temps running well above average through midweek. The warmest days will be Tuesday and Wednesday with readings warming into the low/mid 60s, which will be nearly +10F above average for this time of the year. It gets significantly cold as we approach the weekend with highs only warming into the 30s, which will be nearly -10F to -15F below average.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows unsettled weather in place now over the next several days. Highs will be quite mild through Thursday with showers and storms. Temps fall quite a bit as we slide into the weekend with highs only warming into the 30s and overnight lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s. There could even be some wet snow fall across parts of the metro later this week/weekend.

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Big Temp Drop Ahead

According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, temps will warm into the 60s through the midweek, which will be above average for this time of the year. Weather conditions turn more unsettled during the 2nd half of the week with falling temps. Temps will get quite a bit colder as we head into the end of October and early November with readings well below average. It is likely that we may even see our first freeze in the Twin Cities Metro along with a chance of snow.

WeatherBell (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook

Weather conditions in the Central US will turn a more unsettled as we head through the week. Areas of storms and heavy rain will be possible, but we could also see some of first flakes of the season along with some wet snow accumulations for some.

National Weather Outlook Through This Weekend (Tropical Tidbits/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temperatures across the much of the Central and Eastern US, while warmer than average temperatures will be in place across the Florida and the West Coast.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook shows more unsettled weather along the West Coast and also the southern tier of the nation.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Taste Of Late November On Tap Next Week
By Paul Douglas

Full disclosure: I put on my winter tires yesterday. Based on personal experience I've found traction on winter tires is better than all-season tires. You have the freedom to reach a different conclusion.

After one of the hottest summers on record and a long, luxurious, lukewarm autumn, a reality check was inevitable. No need to panic just yet.

A few T-storms today may be strong, even severe. Some models print out 1-2" rains for far southern Minnesota. We dry out a little Wednesday before another surge of rain Thursday. Each successive storm drags increasingly chilly air southward out of Canada. By the weekend the lowest mile of the atmosphere will be cold enough for snow. Light snow may track north of the MSP metro Saturday, where an inch or two of slush may fall on lawns and fields. Right now this does not look like "The Big One". No rerun of the 1991 Halloween Blizzard is imminent, but next week will be nippy, with highs in the 30s and a hard freeze, statewide.

Winter is tardy, but it's still coming.

Extended Forecast

TUESDAY: Showers and T-storms. Winds: SE 8-13. High: 63.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Chance of T-showers. Winds: N 5-10. Low: 51.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy, drying out. Winds: NE 5-10. High 62.

THURSDAY: More rain, few T-storms? Winds: NE 10-15. Wake-up: 52. High 60.

FRIDAY: Passing shower, windy and colder. Winds: NW 15-30. Wake-up: 41. High 46.

SATURDAY: Light snow may stay north of MSP. Winds: NE 10-15. Wake-up: 35. High 40.

SUNDAY: Cold wind. Sprinkles or flurries. Winds: N 15-25. Wake-up: 34. High: 39.

MONDAY: Peeks of sun, feels like late November. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: 27. High: 37.

This Day in Weather History

October 24th

1922: A powerful low pressure system over Minnesota brings 55 mph winds to Collegeville.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

October 24th

Average High: 54F (Record: 80F set in 1989)

Average Low: 38F (Record: 15F set in 1887)

Record Rainfall: 1.00" set in 1899

Record Snowfall: 0.2" set in 1942

Twin Cities Almanac For October 24th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

October 24th

Sunrise: 7:40am

Sunset: 6:13pm

Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours & 33 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: 2 Minutes & 56 Seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 5 Hour & 14 Minutes

Moon Phase for October 24th at Midnight

3.1 Days After First Quarter Moon

Moon Phase For October 24th at Midnight (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps on Tuesday

Temps on Tuesday will still be quite warm across the Central US with temps warming into the 70s and 80s, which will be nearly +10F to +20F above average for this time of the year. Meanwhile, our next big storm system will begin to take shape in the Northwestern US with cooler temps and widespread rain and high elevation snow.

National Weather Outlook For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Sunday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook For Tuesday

The National Weather Outlook on Tuesday shows unsettled weather across the Central US. Areas of rain and thunder will be possible along with locally heavy rain. Meanwhile, Winter Weather Headlines have been posted across the High Plains and the Northern Rockies, where up to a foot of snow will be possible in spots.

National Weather Map For Tuesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

The National Weather outlook through Wednesday shows rounds of thunderstorms developing across the Central US. Areas of heavy snow will develop in the northern Rockies and High Plains, where winter weather headlines have been posted.

National Weather Outlook Through Wednesday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

The extended precipitation outlook shows widespread rainfall across the Central US. There could be several inches of rain from Texas to the Great Lakes, mixed with a little snow farther north. There will also be areas of heavy precipitation across the Northwest.

Extended Precipitation Outlook (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Snowfall Outlook

According to the ECMWF weather model, it looks like parts of the Northwest and High Plains could be dealing with some fairly decent snow tallies through the week. Parts of Minnesota could even see some snow! This will be our first real snow event of the season.

ECMWF Extended Snowfall Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Rooftop solar is about to get a lot more popular, thanks to rising electricity rates"

"About 5% of U.S. households have rooftop solar, a share that may seem like a lot, but it looks low compared to places like Germany (about 20%) and Australia (about 30%). One of the big reasons that the United States lags some of those other countries is that electricity is unusually cheap here, so it makes less sense on a financial basis for someone to buy rooftop solar. But this is changing. Utilities across the country have been raising their electricity rates by leaps and bounds, with the approval of state regulators. The rate hikes reflect increases in the utilities' costs of operation and their desire to show growth in earnings. This is fueling demand for rooftop solar, the technology that many utilities view as competition."

"A bad apple season has some U.S. fruit growers planning for life in a warmer world"

"Chuck and Diane Southers' thermal alarm went off around 10:30 p.m. on a fateful night in mid-May. The alarm takes the temperature out in their 30-acre orchard and blares loudly if it dips too low. That Thursday night in Concord, New Hampshire, it was about 35 degrees Fahrenheit. The temperature kept getting colder. The Southers' apple orchard was in full bloom, which is normal for mid-May. This year's was particularly good. "We called it a popcorn bloom," Diane Souther said. "The tree was just white with flowers." By Friday morning, all the petals were turning brown. The Southers cut open baby apples, about the size of a pencil eraser. Their sap had frozen, expanded, and, in the process, the cells and seeds were destroyed. "No seeds, no apples," Chuck Souther said, standing between rows of leafy green trees. The Southers first planted their apple orchard in 1978, right after they bought a neglected piece of land in New Hampshire's capital city. They planted their first trees even before they built their home. This year, branches reach into the air unburdened by fruit."

"Federal Forecasters Predict Warm, Wet US Winter but Less Snow Because of El Nino, Climate Change"

"The upcoming United States winter looks likely to be a bit low on snow and extreme cold outbreaks, with federal forecasters predicting the North to get warmer than normal and the South wetter and stormier. A strong El Nino heavily moderates and changes the storm tracks of what America is likely to face from December to February, with an added warming boost from climate change and record hot oceans, officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday in releasing their winter outlook. The forecast warmth will likely turn some storms that would have dumped snow into rain in the nation's northern tier, but there's also "some hope for snow lovers," with one or two possible whopping Nor'easters for the East Coast, said Jon Gottschalk, operations branch chief of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Parts of the East Coast, particularly the Mid-Atlantic, may get more snow than normal because of that, he said."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
about the writer

about the writer

Todd Nelson

See Moreicon