Super Bowl preview: Will Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs top the Eagles for the first NFL three-peat?

Hey, Bill! Make room for Andy’s three-peat.

Oh, Bill Belichick, we hardly knew ye. A mere one season out of the NFL, the six-time Super Bowl champion could lose his stranglehold on NFL coaching GOAT status as Andy Reid vies for the league’s first Super Bowl three-peat when his Chiefs (17-2) face the Eagles (17-3) in a matchup that features a record 34 combined wins. Kansas City is the first team to reach the Super Bowl five times in six seasons. This will be Reid’s 45th career postseason game, surpassing Belichick for the record. A win would give him 29 postseason victories, two shy of Belichick’s mark, and be his fourth Super Bowl win, tying Chuck Noll for second place. And, oh yeah, even though Andy turns 67 next month, his quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, is only 29. Belichick’s QB, Tom Brady, was 37 when he won the fourth of his seven Super Bowls.

Mahomes passes Joe Cool, hunting TB12.

What’s left to say about Mahomes? Probably a lot, much to the chagrin of the ultra-competitive Brady, whose first year in the TV booth will conclude by having to call the kind of greatness that not even his 20-year Patriots dynasty could reach. Mahomes is coming off his 17th playoff win and sixth postseason fourth-quarter comeback. He passed Joe Montana in both categories and now trails only Brady in playoff wins (35) and fourth-quarter comebacks (nine). This will be Mahomes’ fifth Super Bowl start. Only John Elway (five) and Brady (10) have reached that many. And perhaps the stat of the week is Mahomes’ career record, including playoffs, when trailing in the fourth quarter. Unfortunately for Josh Allen and the Bills, Mahomes climbed above .500 (27-26, .509) in the AFC Championship game. The next best winning percentage in games a quarterback was losing in the fourth quarter is .386 by former Raiders quarterback Daryle Lamonica, whose last start came in 1973.

Hey, Saquon, do running backs still matter?

Once upon a time, Terrell Davis proved that running backs matter on the game’s grandest stage. But that was the last millennium — 1997-98, when the Hall of Famer helped Elway finally win his two Super Bowls after going 0-3. Davis’ 2,476 rushing yards in 1998 set the all-time single-season record, including playoffs. Well, first-year Eagles running back Saquon Barkley needs only 30 yards to top that (sorry, Giants fans). Barkley has 442 yards this postseason and can join John Riggins (610 with Washington in 1982) and Davis (581 with Denver in 1997) as the only players to reach 500 in the postseason. Barkley joins Davis (1998), Dallas’ Emmitt Smith (1992-93 and 1995), Seattle’s Shaun Alexander (2005) and San Francisco’s Christian McCaffrey (2023) as the only players to lead the league in rushing and reach the Super Bowl in the same season.

Sirianni the Rodney Dangerfield of coaches?

Nick Sirianni can’t seem to catch a break or probably convince Eagles fans that he shouldn’t be fired if Philly loses this game. The 43-year-old is the fifth-youngest to coach in his second Super Bowl. He’s the third head coach to reach the Super Bowl twice in his first four seasons, joining Hall of Famer Joe Gibbs (1982-83) and Mike Tomlin (2008, 2010). Sirianni is 48-20 in the regular season. That’s a .706 winning percentage that ranks fifth all-time among coaches with at least 50 games. The four ahead of him are Hall of Famers Guy Chamberlin (.784, 1922-27), John Madden (.759, 1969-78), Vince Lombardi (.738, 1959-69) and George Allen (.712, 1966-77). And yet Sirianni desperately needs a win Sunday to emerge from the Reid’s considerable shadow. Reid holds the record for most career wins for both franchises and beat Sirianni in the Super Bowl 38-35 two years ago.

Will Eagles’ turnover magic continue?

During their 2-2 start, the Eagles lost every turnover battle and were minus-6. They’re 15-1 since then in large part because they’ve won 15 turnover battles. They’ve turned the ball over seven times in the last 16 games while posting 34 takeaways. They have 10 takeaways and no giveaways in the postseason. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are minus-1 (1-0) in turnover differential in the postseason. But, typical Chiefs, they are also the only team to win this postseason while losing the turnover battle. And they did it in the AFC title game against Josh Allen and the Bills.

Will old man Kelce turn back the clock?

Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has played 24 postseason games. He’s coming off career lows for catches (two) and yards (19) while tying a career low for targets (four). But we all know what probably will happen if Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio sleeps on Taylor Swift’s boyfriend. Kelce has a record 174 career playoff catches and ranks second behind Jerry Rice in receiving yards (2,245 to 2,039) and receiving touchdowns (22 to 20). In four Super Bowls, Kelce has two touchdowns while averaging 9.3 targets, 7.8 catches and 87.5 yards.

Will Hurts’ legs keep churning TDs?

Only two players in NFL playoff history have rushed for three-plus touchdowns multiple times — running back LeGarrette Blount and Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts. Hurts tied Blount’s record of two when he had three rushing touchdowns in the NFC title game rout of Washington. Hurts also ran for three touchdowns in the Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs two years ago. The Eagles have 39 rushing touchdowns, including 10 in the postseason. How incredible is that number? Well, Vikings fans, that’s four more than your squad has the last three seasons combined. The record, including playoffs, is 42 set by the 2022 Eagles.

Eagles outside linebacker Nolan Smith

The 30th overall pick of the 2023 draft is trying to become the first player with a sack in four postseason games since sacks became official in 1982. He has four of the Eagles’ 10 this postseason. He had 6½ during the regular season. With tackles Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis pressuring inside, Nolan Smith could become a key player rushing from the outside.

Chiefs running back Kareem Hunt

Compared to Barkley, the Chiefs’ leading rusher is light-years under the radar with a mere 728 yards rushing in the regular season and 108 in the postseason. But he has scored a touchdown in four straight games. He also has seven rushing touchdowns in six career postseason games. He has at least one in each game, joining Terrell Davis as the only players in NFL history to do that in their first six playoff games.

Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones will force a critical fumble with the score tied and the Eagles driving in the fourth quarter. It will be Philly’s first turnover this postseason. That’s the bold prediction. The boring prediction: The Chiefs will win their 18th straight one-score game. Their 12 one-score wins this season broke the mark held by the 2015 Broncos, 2019 Seahawks and 2022 Vikings. So, ho-hum, the Chiefs escape again for their 10th straight playoff victory to tie the 2001-05 Patriots for the most in NFL history. Question: If Andy, Patrick and the Chiefs do this, will there be some idiot somewhere who declares them the worst 18-2 three-peat Super Bowl champion in NFL history? Answer: Probably. They’ll also be the first team going for a four-peat. Chiefs 35, Eagles 32.