What happens when a Super Bowl assistant becomes a head coach? Just about anything

Here is one old-school guy's stab at using analytics to determine the exact level of success — or lack thereof — that awaits soon-to-be-officially-named Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell.

The room for error is roughly 98%, and the study's algorithm is a tad rudimentary, but, hey, what else are we going to do until Super Bowl LVI ends on Feb. 13, allowing the Vikings to kick off Valentine's Day by introducing the Rams' 36-year-old offensive coordinator as their ultimate anti-Mike Zimmer selection?

Using Pro Football Reference, the coaching staffs of each of the 112 Super Bowl teams were reviewed. By these eyes, O'Connell will be the 23rd Super Bowl assistant to become a head coach the next season.

Of course, Step 1 for the Vikings is praying to the football gods that O'Connell doesn't join the man in our first category of Super Bowl assistants.

Worst-case scenario for waiting this long

Josh McDaniels took ownership of the entire bottom floor of horrendous hires of Super Bowl assistants two days after the Patriots' 41-33 shootout loss to the Eagles in Super Bowl LII at U.S. Bank Stadium.

New England's offensive coordinator had interviewed twice with the Colts. He said yes to their offer two weeks before the Super Bowl. He agreed to terms, was announced as Indy's head coach the day after the Super Bowl and then …

He reneged and stayed in New England.

Of the 22 Super Bowl assistants who have actually been signed as head coaches, 20 became first-time head coaches. Of those 20, 17 were hired by other teams while three were promoted by teams that won the Super Bowl. Let's break down the 17 hired by other teams this way:

Success takes time

We'll place Kyle Shanahan, Zac Taylor and Hall of Famer Chuck Noll here.

Noll was Baltimore's defensive backs coach in Super Bowl III before joining the Steelers as a 37-year-old in 1969. He went 1-13 that year and then formed an NFL dynasty in the '70s.

Shanahan, the Falcons' offensive coordinator in Super Bowl LI, was 38 when he joined the 49ers in 2017. He went 6-10, 4-12 and then reached the Super Bowl. He returned to the NFC title game this year.

Taylor, the Rams' quarterbacks coach in Super Bowl LIII, was 36 when he joined the Bengals in 2019. He went 2-14, 4-11-1 and now he's coaching against Sean McVay, his old boss, in Super Bowl LVI.

Success takes more than time

Mike Shanahan and Bill Belichick reside here. These Super Bowl assistants didn't find success until their second head coaching opportunities.

Shanahan was hired twice as a Super Bowl assistant. He was Denver's 36-year-old offensive coordinator when he went from Super Bowl XXII to the Raiders in 1988. He rammed heads with Al Davis while going 7-9 and 1-3 before being fired.

In 1994, Shanahan was 49ers offensive coordinator in Super Bowl XXIX. A year later, he was Denver's 43-year-old head coach, going 8-8, 13-3 and then winning back-to-back Super Bowls.

Belichick was Giants defensive coordinator in Super Bowl XXV. At 39, he became Browns head coach. He opened with a 6-10 record, was fired after going 37-45, including 1-1 in the playoffs, in five seasons. Five years later, he joined the Patriots, lost 13 of his first 18 games and made a considerable turnaround while collecting a record six Lombardi Trophies.

Good, great, then ugly

Dan Quinn was defensive mastermind of Seattle's Legion of Boom defense in Super Bowls LVIII and LVIX. At 45, he became Falcons head coach.

Quinn started 8-8, reached the Super Bowl in his second season, was leading Tom Brady 28-3 in Super Bowl LI, lost and never recovered. He was fired after an 0-5 start in 2020.

Major failures

We have seven Super Bowl assistants in this category: Howard Schnellenberger (Dolphins, Super Bowl VII), Mike McCormack (Washington, Super Bowl VII), Bill Arnsparger (Dolphins, Super Bowl VIII), Dan Henning (Washington, Super Bowl XVII), Matt Patricia (Patriots, Super Bowl LII), Romeo Crennel (Patriots, Super Bowl XXXIX) and Todd Haley (Cardinals, Super Bowl XIII). The first five on this list never posted a winning record as a head coach.

Schnellenberger was offensive coordinator of the undefeated 1972 Dolphins. He joined the Baltimore Colts at 39, went 4-10 and 0-3 before being fired.

Arnsparger was defensive coordinator of the 1973 Dolphins team that successfully defended its title. He was 48 when he joined the Giants. He started 2-12 en route to a 7-28 record that got him fired.

Pretty average

We'll put Buddy Ryan, Norv Turner, Dave Wannstedt and Frank Reich in this category.

As defensive coordinator of the legendary Bears defense of 1985, Ryan was carried off the field after Super Bowl XX. He was 55 but still one of the hottest assistant coaches ever.

As Eagles coach the next year, he was 5-10-1. In seven seasons as a head coach, he was 55-55-1 in the regular season and 0-3 in the playoffs.

Turner and Wannstedt were Jimmy Johnson's coordinators at the outset of the Cowboys' dynasty of the 1990s. Wannstedt left for the Bears after Super Bowl XXVII. Turner left for Washington after Super Bowl XXVIII. They were 41 and 42, respectively. In a combined 26 years as head coach, they went 202-216, including 6-7 in the playoffs, with neither finishing his career above .500.

Reich, meanwhile, was Indianapolis' Plan B after McDaniels reneged. He was Eagles offensive coordinator in that Super Bowl record-setting offensive explosion at U.S. Bank Stadium.

Reich was 57 when he went 10-6 and made the playoffs in his Colts debut. But four years later, he's 1-2 in the postseason and still stinging from a Week 18 upset loss to lowly Jacksonville that knocked the Colts out of the playoff race this year.

Which path will O'Connell forge in Minnesota? Will he go on to greatness like Noll? Crash and burn immediately like Patricia? Struggle at first and then rise to Super Bowl heights in Year 3 like Taylor?

Who the heck knows. The first step is not pulling a McDaniels.