Sunny, Warm Weather Continues - Drought Expands Across Minnesota

Still nothing to complain about as we end the work week in the Twin Cities, as another fairly sunny and warm day is expected Friday. Morning temperatures will start off in the mid to upper 20s, climbing into the mid-40s for highs.

Another above average day is expected Friday statewide, with highs ranging from the 30s along portions of the North Shore to the 50s in southwestern Minnesota.

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And the warmth will continue into the weekend! Mainly sunny skies are expected both Saturday and Sunday, with a few more clouds as we head into the second half of the weekend. Highs on Saturday will be right around 50F, climbing to around 60F as we head into Sunday. The 60F on Sunday will be helped by strong southerly winds, gusting to 25 mph.

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While temperatures will cool a touch heading into early next week, we will still see mid-50s for highs Monday and Tuesday in the Twin Cities as our taste of spring continues.

Unfortunately the really warm weather doesn't look like it'll last, at least for now, across the region. A system moving through the upper Midwest during the middle of next week (more on that below) will help drag some cooler air back in from Canada, bringing highs back down into the 30s and 40s as we head through the middle of the month. Of course, that won't feel terrible (especially after that two week stretch in February), but not as "nice" as it will be this weekend and early next week.

With the warm weather the past several days, the snow has continued to quickly melt across the metro - including at MSP Airport. As of Thursday morning, MSP was down to a lonely 1" of snow depth - down from the 6" on the ground Monday morning after the weekend snow. Don't be surprised if that number is 0" very soon... even if you still have snow in your yard, or you're driving past those huge snow piles from plowing.

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At least we will be able to enjoy the nice, warm weather the next several days across the region! No rain (or snow) is in the forecast through next Tuesday morning across the state.

Of course, that doesn't help the drought situation. The entire state of Minnesota is under at least abnormally dry conditions, with 39.53% under moderate drought and 0.61% under severe drought. So we could definitely use some precipitation - and it does look like some could move in mid-next week, though to what extent remains to be determined as there continues to be some variance in the models.

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I've just been handed an update. Real Winter is over. Gone. Kaput. And other words I've never actually written in a sentence. We had our two week Siberian drive-by, and more wheezing spasms of cold and slush will surely follow into April. We can't escape Second and Third Winter (and Mud Season) before we get to Real Spring. But here's the thing: it'll melt.

40s today, a risk of 50F Saturday and a good shot at enjoying highs at or above 60F from Sunday into Wednesday of next week. That's typical for mid or late April by the way.

Models hint at showery rains, even the first thunderstorm of (Fake) Spring next Wednesday, followed by a push of cooler air (40s for highs - still above average). Payback for a brutal February?

In spite of last month's prickly polar pain, meteorological winter (December through February) was 1F above average in the Twin Cities. Go figure.

The western half of the USA is in a severe drought, with moderate drought over northern and western Minnesota. Let it rain (or snow).

Paul's Extended Twin Cities Forecast

FRIDAY: Plenty of sunshine. Wake up 27. High 47. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind E 5-10 mph.

SATURDAY: Blue sky. Piles of dirty snow. Wake up 26. High 49. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.

SUNDAY: Sunny, breezy and mild. Wake up 32. High 60. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind S 10-20 mph.

MONDAY: Bright sunshine, still amazing. Wake up 33. High 60. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Showers, possible T-storm. Wake up 52. High 66. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind SW 10-20 mph.

THURSDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, cooler. Wake up 36. High 46. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.

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This Day in Weather History
March 5th

1966: A powerful blizzard finally ends in the Upper Midwest. Some wind gusts from the storm topped 100 mph.

Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
March 5th

Average High: 36F (Record: 72F set in 2000)
Average Low: 20F (Record: -14F set in 1960)
Average Precipitation: 0.05" (Record: 0.70" set in 1961)
Average Snowfall: 0.4" (Record: 11.0" in 1915)
Record Snow Depth: 26" in 1962

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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
March 5th

Sunrise: 6:43 AM
Sunset: 6:06 PM

*When Do We Climb To 11.5 Hours Of Daylight? March 8th (11 hours, 32 minutes, and 33 seconds)
*When Is The Sunrise At/Before 6:30 AM?: March 12th (6:30 AM)
*Latest Sunset Before Daylight Saving Time: March 13th (6:16 PM)

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As a system moves across the southern United States Friday, showers and thunderstorms will be possible from Kansas south to the Gulf Coast. A cold front approaching the west coast will bring rain and snow chances from the Canadian border to central California. A few snow showers will be possible in the Northeast.

The heaviest rain through the first half of the weekend will be along the Pacific coast from Washington to northern California, with the potential of at least 2-4" of rain. Portions of the central United States and Florida could also see 1-3" of rain. The heaviest snow will be in the western mountains, with a few feet possible.

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More from Yale Climate Connections: "The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) gave America's infrastructure a D+ grade in its quadrennial assessment issued March 3. ASCE gave the nation's flood control infrastructure – dams and levees – a D grade. This is a highly concerning assessment, given that climate change is increasingly stressing dams and levees as increased evaporation from the oceans drives heavier precipitation events."

Miami Says It Can Adapt to Rising Seas. Not Everyone Is Convinced.

More from the New York Times: "Officials in Miami-Dade County, where climate models predict two feet or more of sea-level rise by 2060, have released an upbeat strategy for living with more water, one that focused on elevating homes and roads, more dense construction farther inland and creating more open space for flooding in low-lying areas. That blueprint, made public on Friday, portrayed rising seas as mostly manageable, especially for a low-lying area with a century of experience managing water."

The Gulf Stream is slowing to a 'tipping point' and could disappear

More from LiveScience: "The Gulf Stream — one of Earth's major climate-regulating ocean currents — is moving slower than it has in thousands of years, a new study suggests. Human-induced climate change is largely to blame. This "unprecedented" slowdown could impact weather patterns and sea levels on both sides of the Atlantic, the researchers found. And it only looks poised to worsen over the coming decades if climate change continues unabated. Indeed, if global warming persists at its current pace, the Gulf Stream could pass a critical "tipping point" by the year 2100, lead study author Levke Caesar, a climatologist at Maynooth University in Ireland, said, potentially causing the current to grind to a halt, regardless of the climate."

Thanks for checking in and have a great day! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser).

- D.J. Kayser