Sunny And Colder Than Average Weekend

A chilly weekend is on tap with sunshine and easing winds by Sunday. Rain on Tuesday end a as a period of snow, with a coating in the metro, but over 8" possible up north. I see 40s next week, maybe 50s returning in time for the Twins Home Opener on April 7. Another sign of spring! Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

March 26, 2022 at 2:30AM

Average Ice Out Dates

We're still several weeks away from ice out across the state, but according to the MN DNR, here's a look at the average ice out dates for lakes across the state. Note that some lakes across the southern part of the state typically see ice out around the end of March. Lake Minnetonka typically doesn't see ice out until mid April. A few lakes in far northern & northeastern MN don't see ice out until late April or early May.

Average Ice Out Dates (MN DNR/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Great Lakes Ice Coverage

According to NOAA's GLERL, near 20% of the great lakes is considered ice covered. 31% of Lake Superior is ice covered.

Great Lakes Ice Coverage (The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Status of Spring

"March 21, 2022 - Spring leaf out continues to progress across the country. Our spring leaf anomaly compares the arrival of spring leaf out this year to a long-term average of 1991-2020. After a slow start to spring across much of the Southeast, spring is progressing more rapidly, arriving a few days to a week early in the southern Great Plains, the Southern Appalachians, and parts of Kentucky, Ohio, and West Virginia. The Washington, D.C. area is 5-10 days early. Parts of New York City are one week early. In western states, spring leaf out is patchy, arriving a week late in some locations and over a month early in others. Spring bloom has also started to arrive in southern states, days to a week late in Texas and Florida and days to several weeks early in California. Spring bloom is over a week early in parts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. We will continue to update this page as spring leaf out and bloom unfold across the country - check back frequently on this page!"

Spring Leaf Index (NPN/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Chilly Weekend - Storm Next Week

Here's the weather outlook from AM Saturday to PM Wednesday. Note that weather conditions will be quiet through the weekend with chilly temps in place. The extended forecast suggests more active weather in place as we head into next week. It is still too early to get specific, but there could certainly be some decent rains and possibly snow somewhere in the Upper Midwest.

Weather Outlook From AM Saturday to PM Wednesday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Saturday Weather Outlook

The weather outlook for Minneapolis on Saturday will be quiet with breezy winds and chilly temps. Feels like temps in the morning will be in the single digits, but will warm into the 10s and 20s later in the day.

Saturday Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Meteograms for Minneapolis

The hourly temps for Minneapolis on Saturday shows readings starting in the upper 10s in the morning and will warm into the low to mid 30ss later in the afternoon. Skies will generally be sunny with NW Winds around 30mph.

Hourly Temps & Sky Conditions For Minneapolis on Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Hourly Wind Gusts & Direction For Minneapolis on Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Wind Chill Values Saturday

Feels like temps for Minneapolis on Saturday will be chilly with readings in the single digits in the morning and will warm into the low/mid 20s by the afternoon.

Hourly Feels Like Temps For Minneapolis on Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Weather Outlook on Saturday

Temps around the region on Saturday will be very chilly for the end of March with temps running nearly -10F to -20F below average. With gusty winds, it'll feel even cooler!

Weather Outlook For Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
Highs From Average on Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Snow Depth

This was the snow depth as of Friday morning. Note that many locations across the northern half of Minnesota and Wisconsin still have snow on the ground. However, there isn't much left around the Twin Cities Metro.

Snow Depth (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis over the next several days shows highs running well below average this weekend. We'll gradually warm into the 40s early next week, but we'll still be a few degrees below where we should be for the end of March.

5 Day Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended weather outlook over the next 7 day shows chilly sunshine in place over the weekend. We'll warm a little this week, but it could be more active with areas of rain and snow.

7 Day Weather Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

According to the ECMWF & GFS extended temperature outlook, temps will be pretty chilly for the end of March and the early part of April. Readings will bounce around the 30s and 40s.

ECMWF Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
GFS Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows warmer than average temps across the Western US and cooler than average temps in place east of the Rockies

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8-14 Day precipitation outlook shows more active weather possible across the Southeastern US.

8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook (NOAA CPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunny And Colder Than Average Weekend
By Paul Douglas

There is a reason psychics and futurists don't dabble in economics, card-counting, brackets or meteorology. Predicting the future has its limits. Things rarely work out exactly the way you think they will.

Weather forecast accuracy has slowly improved, with some skill for a specific location out to 10-14 days. Surprisingly, the 24-hour forecast accuracy is88%, which hasn't improved in a generation.

The biggest breakthroughs? Storm watches & warnings .At a time when extreme weather is increasing, US deaths are falling, a testament to NOAA and local meteorologists communicating risk.

The tornado that hit New Orleans this week was an EF-3 (160 mph winds); on the ground for 11 miles with one fatality due to timely warnings.

A chilly weekend is on tap with sunshine and easing winds by Sunday. Rain on Tuesday end a as a period of snow, with a coating in the metro, but over 8" possible up north.

I see 40s next week, maybe 50s returning in time for the Twins Home Opener on April 7. Another sign of spring!

Extended Forecast

SATURDAY: Sunny, windy and cold. Winds: NW 15-25. High: 35.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and quiet. Winds: N 5-10. Low: 14.

SUNDAY: Blue sky, less wind. What spring? Winds: N 5-10. High: 34.

MONDAY: Fading sun, clouds increase. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 20. High: 42.

TUESDAY: Cold metro rain. Icy mix up north. Winds: SE 10-20. Wake-up: 33. High: 38.

WEDNESDAY: Light snow tapers to flurries. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 31. High: 34.

THURSDAY: Still chilly, few flakes around. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: 25. High: 33.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny, a little nicer. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 23. High: 41.

This Day in Weather History

March 26th

2012: This is the record early ice-out date on Mille Lacs Lake.

2007: Temperature records are shattered across much of central and southern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin. The following records were set: 69 at Alexandria, 75 at Mankato, 77 at Little Falls, 79 at St. Cloud, 81 at Minneapolis-St. Paul and Eau Claire, 82 at Redwood Falls, and 83 at Springfield.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

March 26th

Average High: 47F (Record: 81F set in 2007)

Average Low: 28F (Record: -10F set in 1996)

Record Rainfall: 1.02" set in 1921

Record Snowfall: 8.5" set in 1936

Twin Cities Almanac For March 26th (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

March 26th

Sunrise: 7:04am

Sunset: 7:32pm

Hours of Daylight: ~12 hours & 28 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 3 minute & 08 seconds

Daylight GAINED since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~ 3 Hour & 48 Minutes

Moon Phase for March 26th at Midnight

2.1 Days After Last Quarter Moon

Moon Phase For March 26th at Midnight (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National High Temps Saturday

The weather outlook on Saturday shows temps running well below average along and east of the Mississippi River. However, the western half of the nation will be well above average with record highs likely in many spots across the Southwestern US.

Weather Outlook For Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)
National Highs From Average on Saturday (Praedictix/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

National Weather Outlook

Weather conditions through the weekend show areas of rain and snow across the Northeastern part of the nation with gusty winds. Much of the rest of the nation will be quiet. However, there will be rain late weekend across the West Coast.

Weather Outlook Through Sunday (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, in the eastern half of the nation with some of the heaviest found along the Gulf Coast States. There will also be some decent precipitation in the Southwest, including California.

NOAA WPC (NOAA WPC/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Extended Snowfall Outlook

Here's the ECMWF extended snowfall outlook through next week. Areas of heavy snow will be possible across the Upper Midwest and into the Northeast. There could also be some decent tallies across the Rockies and the Sierra Nevada Range in California.

ECMWF Extended Snowfall Outlook (WeatherBell/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

Climate Stories

(NOAA/The Minnesota Star Tribune)

"Wildfires Spread Destruction in Texas Towns"

"Firefighters in Texas have finally gotten the upper hand on devastating wildfires that began last week. But fires continue to blaze across areas of the state and may escalate due to dry weather, as people in some of the hardest-hit areas begin to assess the damage. As of Monday, according to the Texas A&M Forest Service, more than 178 fires of varying sizes had burned more than 108,000 acres in Texas and destroyed more than 150 homes and buildings. The fires were supercharged by dry winds, low humidity, and stretches of drought-stricken land that sparked easily and helped flames spread. As of last week, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, more than 90% of Texas was in some form of drought, with 40% of the state in extreme or exceptional drought, the highest levels. Governor Greg Abbott on Friday declared states of emergency in 11 counties in Texas where fires were raging. Twenty-three fires were active in the state on Sunday, a Forest Service spokesperson told CNN."

"Some Good News About Corals and Climate Change"

A nearly two-year-long study of Hawaiian corals suggests some species may be better equipped to handle warmer, more acidic waters than previously believed. Christopher Intagliata: Within a few decades, global temperatures are expected to climb to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. And that's gonna be really bad for corals, according to the latest report out from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Andréa Grottoli: So the recent IPCC report says that up to 1.5 we can expect 10 to 30 percent coral survivorship. And above that, it decreases precipitously.

"This Comparison Shows How Much A Lifesaving Tool Has Advanced In 25 Years"

"Every day, millions of Americans benefit from an incredible invention without ever paying it much mind. Doppler weather radar is responsible for saving countless lives over the past four decades. This technology can help meteorologists spot damaging winds and tornadoes, giving folks in harm's way plenty of lead time to get to safety. A recent tornado in Texas highlights how far this lifesaving technology has come in just a few years. Meteorologists harnessed radar technology to keep an eye on precipitation in the years after World War II. During the late 1950s, the government built a network of radars to provide communities advanced warning of dangerous storms."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

@TNelsonWX (The Minnesota Star Tribune)
about the writer

about the writer

Todd Nelson

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